哪種商品會成爲未來的奢侈品大綱

Jewelry could be a service one day. A couple might go into a jewelry store early in their relationship and sit down with a designer who makes a ring that somehow reflects who they are to each other. Time passes. They return to the shop as they’ve both seen the relationship has progressed. The jeweler takes the same metal and diamond and refashions in it into a new shape to reflect the new stage. Then again as they marry, have kids, etc.

或許有一天，珠寶可能變成一種服務。比如一對情侶在確定戀愛關係初期，走進一家珠寶店，請一位設計師打造一對能夠反映他們當前關係的戒指。時光荏苒，當這對情侶覺得彼此關係又深了一步時，他們重返這家珠寶店。珠寶商將把他們的戒指重新設計，再打造一對能夠反映二人關係邁入新階段的戒指。隨着這對情侶結婚、生子，這種服務還會不斷更新。

This is the vision of “tbc,” a conceptual brand imagined by the New York and London agency Pearlfisher in its report, Luxury Mode, a forward looking imagining of shifts anticipated in the luxury market based on observations of today. In a changing world where technology makes everything so much cheaper (and so fast), it’s worth asking what luxury consumers will want a few years from now that everyone can’t have.

這正是珠寶商Pearlfisher構想出的“tbc”概念品牌，它在紐約和倫敦都設有分店。近日，Pearlfisher在其名爲《奢侈格調》的報告中，暢想了未來奢侈品市場的可能發展模式。世界日新月異，科技已經使得一切都變得更加便宜快捷。而我們不妨捫心自問，幾年後，奢侈品消費者想要哪些與衆不同的東西？

Yesterday’s luxury is commonplace today. Sophie Kleber of Huge, an international creative agency based in Brooklyn, pointed out that rapid home delivery of goods was once only available to the affluent. Now, goods delivered the same day or close to it is a reality for the regular urbanite. Uber has made black car service commonplace. Butlers on demand are even offered at attainable prices.

昨日的奢侈品今天可能已經“平民化”。紐約布魯克林Huge國際創意公司的索菲o克萊伯指出，在過去，送貨上門是隻有富人才能享受的服務，而今天，當日送達等服務對於都市人來說已經不是新鮮事了。Uber等打車軟件使得高檔租車業務也變得平易近人。甚至管家服務的價格也不再那麼高不可攀了。

Which illustrates why being exceptionally luxurious will get harder as technology makes so much easier. A theme that many of the luxury agencies consulted for the survey kept returning to was the idea that luxury brands will take bespoke experiences to new levels as a way to stand out from the mass market. So, for example, soon customers may walk into a Prada store and the sales associate will get a report of their sizes and tastes to guide them to exactly what they might like swiftly.

科技讓一切變得更便攜的同時，所謂“高度奢華”越來越難以立足。在該調查中，許多受訪的奢侈品機構都反饋稱，奢侈品業務要想與平價市場拉開距離，就必須要把體驗做到更高的水平。比如，在不久的將來，當顧客走近一家普拉達（Prada）專賣店時，銷售助理可能會獲得一份關於顧客的尺碼和品味的報告，使他們能迅速引導顧客購買他們喜愛的東西。

Yet, how long before that technology is comparably available to consumers at the Gap GPS 1.48% ? Or Target TGT 1.45% ? That sort of information technology scales so fast that any advantage a brand achieves digitally won’t last.

不過，Gap或Target等平價品牌的消費者多久之後能用上這種服務？由於信息技術發展得非常快，任何一個品牌都不會長期獨享這種技術優勢。

High tech devices, in a way, undermine the very notion of luxury. Take the $10,800 Vertu Signature Touch Smartphone. It comes with a year of global concierge service, with a camera and speakers certified by top brands, but it is still just running Android, and its processor isn’t even quite as good as the one in the $499.99 Moto X. On the outside, it has beautiful customizations, but, as a device, it is nothing extraordinary.

從某種程度上來說，高科技設備已經衝擊了所謂“奢侈品”的概念。以價格達10800美元的Vertu署名觸屏智能手機爲例。消費者可以享受一年的“全球管家服務”，它的攝像頭和話筒也是經過國際領先品牌認證的，但它依舊運行的是安卓系統，而且它的處理器可能還不如499.99美元的Moto X手機。從外在看，它的定製做得很漂亮，但作爲一款設備，它沒有任何突出的地方。

Yet a $22,200 pair of earrings from Kimberly McDonald have no features at all, beyond being objects. People aren’t paying for the earrings or the phone’s function, but their quality as rare objects. If that’s so, experts say that luxury consumer will be looking for something not only rare but that expresses something about them. Pearlfisher calls this a shift, “from excess to asset.” People won’t want to be seen so much having lots of expensive things, but just the right ones.

一對價值22200美元的金伯利（Kimberly McDonald）耳環，除了是一對物件，沒有任何特殊功能。人們購買這對耳環或Vertu手機，看中的並不是它們的功能，僅僅是因爲它們是稀罕物。因此，奢侈品專家表示，奢侈品消費者今後的消費方向將是那種不僅少見，而且還能表達他們自身某些特質的東西。Pearlfisher公司稱之爲“從放縱到資產”的轉變。人們不再希望讓別人覺得他們擁有很貴的東西，只想讓別人覺得他們擁有對的東西。

These consumers will want to make purchases that illuminate something about how the buyer sees the world. Pearlfisherpoints to Maison Martin Margiela, with a homeware collection that offers products such as a night-light sculpted to look like a basic, vintage light fixture, in glow-in-the-dark plaster.

這些消費者希望他們購買的東西能反映出他們的三觀。Pearlfisher的報告舉了Maison Martin Margiela公司的產品作例子，這家公司主打高檔家居產品，比如它的一款夜燈的形狀就像一具非常簡單的古代燈具，材質是能夠發出熒光的石膏。

The O Group’s Kristen Dillman echoed the idea of thoughtful, considered consumption. “Perhaps in the future,” she says, “we might see luxury brands playing on this idea that’s already permeated the culture, of people investing in fewer but better things.” If this prediction is right, expert curators may be more in demand before long.

紐約時尚創意機構The O Group的克里斯汀o迪爾曼也認爲這個理念很有道理，她表示：“或許在將來，人們將普遍接受這一理念，那時人們開始投資更少的錢買更好的東西，奢侈品品牌也要基於這個理念發展。”如果這一預測是正確的，那麼不久之後市場將需要更多的專業策劃人才。

The other implication of this shift could be that upstart brands who know their following will erode the legacy companies’ market share, Roxanne Genier, cofounder of Agence:Luxury, explained. Though no doubt some will always like the story of 200-year-old lines, like Goyard luggage. “When you start looking at all the big brands, their social media presence and their websites, it’s all about me,” Genier said, but she doesn’t think that works for the coming generation of consumers.

品牌營銷機構Agency:Luxury的聯合創始人洛葛仙妮o吉尼認爲，這種轉變的另一後果，則是新興公司將逐漸蠶食守成公司的市場份額。雖然總是有消費者喜歡那種像Goyard Luggage那樣擁有兩百年曆史的老品牌，不過吉尼表示：“如果你看看所有的大品牌，看看他們的社交媒體內容和他們的網站，你會發現他們非常自戀。”但是下一代的消費者可能對此並不買賬。

They want brands they can be in conversation with, she says. “The younger generation, they want something that’s them. They don’t want to be a copycat like everyone else.” In fact, beyond customization, Genier pointed to one small brand, Anatomie, whose designer has such a close relationship with his best clients that he’s been known to visit them at home to personally style them.

吉尼表示，新一代消費者想要的是能和他們對話的品牌。“新一代人想要能反映‘他們’的東西。他們不想像其他人一樣盲從。”吉尼還舉了一個名叫Anatomie的小品牌的例子，這個品牌的設計師與他最好的客戶保持了非常好的關係，他們甚至邀請他到家裏去給他們做造型。

As bespoke becomes the watchword, services may become the ascendant luxury product. Genier is working with Presidential Private Jet Vacations, which plans an entirely customizable itinerary, makes all the arrangements and escorts their guests through it in a private plane.

隨着定製變得流行，服務可能成爲一種大有可爲的奢侈品。吉尼正在與一家名叫Presidential Private Jet Vacations的公司合作，這家公司專門規劃完全定製化的旅行線路，所有行程安排都是通過私人飛機完成的。

Kleber spoke to the deeper value proposition of this kind of service. “The biggest luxury today is time,” she says. Services that can give deliver unique experiences but save clients the trouble of making them and add value to shared experiences are likely to be sought after going forward.

克萊伯指出，這種服務具有更深層次的價值定位：“如今，最大的奢侈品是時間。”那些可以爲消費者帶來獨特體驗，同時省卻他們很多麻煩，並能帶來附加值的服務，很可能將成爲消費者追捧的對象。

Rare experiences are also likely to be more prized, experts agreed. Dillman pointed to Afar Magazine, saying that luxury consumers will look to “travel deeper.” For example, The champagne company VeuveCliquot runs an invitation-only hotel in Reims, France, L’Hotel du Marc. It features neoclassical architecture complemented by a rotating collection of contemporary artwork. With just six rooms, very few people will ever get to say they’ve been.

專家們認爲，一些稀有體驗也將變得更加珍貴。迪爾曼舉了旅行雜誌《Afar》爲例，表示奢華型消費者更期望“深度遊”。比如香檳公司VeuveCliquot在法國的蘭斯有一家只有獲得邀請才能入住的酒店，名叫L’Hotel du Marc。該酒店具有新古典主義的建築風格，以及一系列當代藝術作品。由於該酒店只有六間房間，能夠入住的人少之又少。

Which isn’t to say that goods and technology have no place in the high end market. More engineers are turning their skills to devices rather than digital products such as software and websites, and the marginal cost of machines never reaches zero, as it does with digital inventions.

這並不是說，商品和科技在高端市場中已經沒有一席之地了。越來越多的工程師正在把工夫下在設備上，而不是軟件和網站等產品上。而機器的邊際成本永遠不會像軟件與其它數字產品那樣趨於零。

Jessica Banks founded Rock Paper Robot, a high-end furniture maker that uses principles of physics to make furniture that appear to do the impossible (her signature piece is a levitating table). She says, “Versatility, customization and modularity: that’s what I think the future is about. And I’m banking on it.” Right now, that consists of making a chandelier that can spread light out or focus it in based on the mood it senses in a room.

傑西卡o班克斯是Rock Paper Robot公司的創始人，這家公司是一家高端的家居製造商，它的獨特之處在於，通過使用物理學定律來生產一些貌似幾乎不可能存在的東西（比如她的標誌性作品是一款懸浮桌子）。班克斯表示：“我認爲功能性、定製性和模塊化是未來的關鍵，這也正是我的發展方向。”班克斯的公司還生產了一款神奇的吊燈，可以通過判斷屋裏人們的情緒來決定散射或集中光線。

Where might high-end customization of the home lead? Imagine whole walls covered in electronic paper whose color and patterns could change in a moment. Later, there could be furniture that could rearrange or transform itself at a voice command, from dining room to den to ballroom in the same space.

家居市場的高端定製化會朝着哪個方向發展呢？我們不妨想象一下：不久的將來，整面牆都用電子牆紙包裹，牆的顏色和圖案可以迅速改變。再往後，說不定你只要下一條語音指令，傢俱就可以自己整理甚至像變形金剛一樣變形，同一間屋子不一會兒就能從餐廳變成臥室再變成舞廳。

If it’s a safe bet now that tomorrow’s luxury consumer will seek brands that speak to their unique selves, further down the road, logic says it would go one step further: affluent consumers could demand solutions that can adapt on the fly to precisely the person they want to impress.

如果說，明日的奢侈品消費者青睞的是那些能夠表達出自我個性的品牌，那麼隨着時間的推移，它還會合乎邏輯地繼續邁進一步：未來的奢侈品消費者很可能需要一些能夠即興發揮，精確適應目標人羣品味的解決方案。（財富中文網）