中國正在塑造全球科技的未來

At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last week there were so many exhibitors from China — a third of the 4,500 total — some delegates joked that CES now stands for “China Electronics Show”.

上週在拉斯維加斯舉辦的“消費電子展”（Consumer Electronics Show，簡稱CES）上有很多來自中國的參展商——總數4500家中佔了三分之一——一些代表開玩笑說，CES現在成了“中國電子展”(China Electronics Show)的縮寫了。

Through its upstream position in the supply chain, the country has a long-established role in global tech. But it is no longer a mere supplier of components or assembler of the devices on display at shows like CES. Chinese tech companies are increasingly winning with their own products. Shenzhen-based DJI is the dominant global producer of drones. GoPro, which relied on contract manufacturers in China, has just grounded its last drone model, the unfortunately named Karma.

由於其在供應鏈上游的地位，中國在全球科技領域中的角色早就根深蒂固。但在CES等展覽上，中國已不再只是參展產品零部件的供應商或設備的組裝者。中國的科技企業正日益憑藉自身的產品取勝。深圳大疆創新科技有限公司(DJI)是全球最大的無人機制造商。依賴中國代工製造商的GoPro最近決定停止銷售其最新款無人機——名字不太吉利的Karma（含有因果報應的意思——譯者注）。

Yet the value in tech these days is increasingly in services and content, not devices themselves. Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon have a combined market value of $2.8tn, far exceeding any pure hardware seller.

然而，如今科技的價值越來越多地體現在服務和內容上，而不是設備本身。谷歌(Google)、蘋果(Apple)、Facebook及亞馬遜(Amazon)的合計市值爲2.8萬億美元，遠遠超過任何純硬件銷售商。

Here, too, China is catching up. Chinese internet leaders Tencent and Alibaba have a combined valuation of $1tn. Add in another $200bn or so for Baidu, and Netease plus other listed or unlisted companies, such as Toutiao, Meituan and Didi, and the scale of the Chinese market becomes apparent. Trends emerging in China are beginning to shape the future of the global tech landscape. To its dominant role in the supply chain we can now add a “demand chain” aspect to the country.

在服務和內容方面，中國也在迎頭趕上。中國的互聯網巨頭騰訊(Tencent)與阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的估值合計有1萬億美元。再加上百度(Baidu)、京東()和網易(Netease)以及其他上市或非上市的公司，包括頭條(Toutiao)、美團(Meituan)和滴滴(Didi)等，這些企業的估值加起來也有2000億美元左右，中國市場的規模是顯而易見的。中國正在興起的一些趨勢正開始塑造未來全球科技的格局。除了其在供應鏈上的主導地位，我們如今也需要從“需求鏈”方面來看待這個國家。

US tech titans are already global companies. But Chinese companies are just beginning to look abroad. The week before last week, ride-sharing business Didi acquired 99 in Brazil, crimping fellow group Uber’s prospects in the country. Both Alibaba and Tencent are investing significant sums in India, ramping up pressure on Amazon.

美國科技巨頭都已經是全球性企業了。但中國的企業纔剛剛開始將目光投向海外。上上週，共享出行企業滴滴收購了巴西的網約車企業99，勢必影響競爭對手優步(Uber)在該國的發展前景。阿里巴巴和騰訊都在印度大舉投資，給亞馬遜造成越來越大的壓力。

Not that China itself is short of growth. Massive investments in mobile broadband and a highly competitive handset market means that nearly all of China’s approximately 750m internet users use smartphones. Payments via QR codes, led by Tencent’s WeChat and Alibaba’s Alipay, are making cash obsolete. Dockless bikes line the streets of Chinese cities. The country’s physical infrastructure — roads, high-speed trains and airports — are facilitating as big a boost to consumption as President Eisenhower’s roll out of the Interstate Highway System in the US in the 1950s.

並不是說中國本身缺乏增長。由於在移動寬帶上的鉅額投資和競爭激烈的手機市場，中國約7.5億的互聯網用戶幾乎都在使用智能手機。由騰訊微信(WeChat)及阿里巴巴支付寶(Alipay)引領的二維碼支付讓現金顯得過時。無樁自行車遍佈中國城市街頭。中國的實體基礎設施——公路、高鐵及機場——對消費的極大提振，與20世紀50年代艾森豪威爾總統在美國推動建設州際高速公路網絡所起的作用旗鼓相當。

I have lived in Beijing for more than 20 years, yet only in the past year have I felt on returning to London or Silicon Valley that I’m going backwards in time. For urban residents, China is increasingly a study in frictionless living. Hopping on a bike, ordering a meal from a huge range of restaurants, paying for utilities, transferring money to friends — all can be done at the touch of a button. Internet services in the west offer increasing convenience no doubt — but nothing beats the experience in China.

我在北京住了20多年，然而過去一年中我才感到彷彿回到了我不時回去的倫敦或硅谷。對於城市居民來說，中國的無摩擦生活方式日益值得考察。騎上一輛單車，從一衆餐館中訂餐，繳納水電費，轉賬給朋友——只要點擊一下按鈕，這一切都可以完成。毫無疑問，西方的互聯網服務提供了越來越多的便利——但沒什麼比得上在中國獲得的體驗。

Why such rapid growth? Intense competition between the country’s internet companies is one reason. The rapid embrace by Chinese consumers of the new is another: few cling to a past where shops were crowded, taxis hard to hail, banks a waiting room hell. Convenience is the new religion in China.

爲什麼中國的發展如此迅速？一來是由於中國互聯網企業之間競爭激烈。二來是由於中國消費者能迅速接受新事物：很少有人執着過去的生活，那時的商店人滿爲患，在街上很難打到出租車，銀行裏等待辦理業務的客戶人山人海。如今在中國，便利成了人們所崇尚的新信條。

Critics contend that Chinese internet companies are merely hothouse flowers, thriving only as a result of the Great Firewall of China (GFC) acting as a greenhouse. Google, Facebook, Twitter and others are indeed blocked, making China’s modernity seem hollow at times.

評論家們認爲中國的互聯網公司不過是溫室裏的花朵，它們得以興旺發展僅僅是因爲有中國“防火長城”(Great Firewall of China)這座“溫室”的庇佑。谷歌、Facebook、Twitter等海外互聯網企業都被封鎖了，這令中國的現代化有時顯得很空洞。

Would tearing down the wall make any difference to the prospects for US internet companies? For Google, it could. Savvy internet users in China use virtual private networks (VPNs) to access its services; not so much for Facebook, however, as Tencent’s WeChat has essentially removed the need. Amazon is a bit player in China. By contrast, Apple has been hugely successful, its integrated hardware/content model generating billions of dollars a year.

那麼拆除這堵牆會對美國互聯網公司的前景產生影響嗎？對谷歌來說會。中國的網絡達人使用虛擬專用網絡(VPN)訪問谷歌；然而，對Facebook來說影響不會多大，因爲騰訊的微信基本上已使其變得沒有必要。亞馬遜在中國市場是個小玩家。相比之下，蘋果取得了巨大的成功，其將硬件與內容相融合的模式每年爲蘋果賺大量的錢。

In Washington, the drumbeat of protectionism is getting louder, blocking Huawei from selling phones to AT&T and Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial from buying money transfer company MoneyGram. Security concerns are cited. Both governments have been involved in skulduggery in recent years to gather each other’s secrets, not to mention China’s targeting of corporate intellectual property in the US.

在華盛頓，保護主義的呼聲越來越高，美國已禁止華爲(Huawei)爲AT&T供應手機，並否決了阿里巴巴的金融關聯企業螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)收購美國匯款公司速匯金(MoneyGram)的交易。理由是出於安全考慮。近年來，中美兩國政府爲收集對方機密均不惜使出欺詐手段，更不用說中國對美國企業知識產權的覬覦了。

Erecting barriers to trade and investment is a risky move for the US. Chinese companies can help make technology more affordable in America, as it slips down the league of internet speeds and affordability. US tech companies need China’s scale to help make and deploy emerging technologies at home, as the recent deal between Facebook and Xiaomi for Oculus VR headsets shows.

對美國來說，設置貿易和投資壁壘是一項危險的舉措。美國在互聯網速度和資費方面的排名下滑，中國企業可以幫助提高技術在美國的可負擔性。美國科技公司需要中國市場的規模來幫助將國內新興的技術投入生產和應用，正如最近Facebook就與小米聯手推出了Oculus VR頭顯設備。

As both countries look to artificial intelligence, China’s role as a living laboratory is even more important. Silicon Valley companies, including Google, which just announced an AI lab in Beijing, are well aware of this. Whether the US government, which is already restricting visas for qualified researchers, will help or hinder their innovations remains to be seen.

隨着兩國都開始着眼於人工智能的開發，作爲“實驗場”，中國的作用顯得更加重要了。硅谷的企業清楚地意識到了這一點，包括剛剛在北京宣佈成立人工智能實驗室的谷歌。已在限制對研究人才發放簽證的美國政府將幫助還是阻礙本國企業的創新仍有待觀察。

The writer is chairman of BDA China and author of ‘Alibaba — The House That Jack Ma Built’

本文作者是北京博達克諮詢公司(BDA China)的董事長，著有《阿里巴巴：馬雲的基業》(Alibaba — The House That Jack Ma Built)一書。