國際油價跌至去年11月以來最低水平

Brent crude slid below $50 a barrel to close at its lowest level since November as confidence in Opec’s ability to overpower a resurgent US shale industry and ease a global oil surplus faded.

由於市場對歐佩克(Opec)有能力壓制美國頁岩產業復甦及緩解全球石油過剩的信心減弱，布倫特原油(Brent crude)已跌至每桶不到50美元，創下去年11月以來的最低水平。

The international oil benchmark dropped by 4.8 per cent on Thursday to settle at $48.38 a barrel in London. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, also fell by 4.8 per cent to settle at $45.52 a barrel.

週四，倫敦布倫特原油下跌了4.8%，收於每桶48.38美元。美國基準原油價格——西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)也下跌了4.8%，收於每桶45.52美元。

Both benchmarks have erased all of the gains made since some of the world’s biggest producers agreed to curb supplies in an effort to end the worst oil crash in a generation.

此前，自部分全球最大產油國同意通過限制供應來結束這場一代人時間裏最嚴重的油價崩盤以來，原油價格出現了回升，但下跌後的兩大基準價格顯示，所有漲幅已化爲烏有。

“Sentiment at the moment is very negative,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

瑞銀財富管理(UBS Wealth Management)的大宗商品分析師喬瓦尼?斯陶諾沃(Giovanni Staunovo)稱：“目前的情緒非常消極。”

Oil market participants have been rapidly losing faith in the ability of Opec and rival producers outside the cartel, such as Russia, to shrink the excess crude inventories that have kept a ceiling on prices following the three-year downturn.

對於歐佩克及俄羅斯等非歐佩克產油國減少過剩原油庫存的能力，石油市場參與者正快速失去信心。正是這些過剩原油庫存使油價在經歷3年低迷之後無法取得突破。

Not only did higher prices at the start of the year reinvigorate the US shale industry, Opec producers have been exporting at levels that were higher than expected despite the supply cut deal.

不僅是今年年初的油價上漲重振了美國頁岩行業，而且歐佩克產油國還一直以高於預期的水平出口——儘管有削減供應的協議。

This has led hedge funds that bet on a higher oil price to liquidate their positions given the weakness.

這已經導致押注油價上漲的對衝基金鑑於油價疲軟而平倉。

Oil’s drop on Thursday came amid a wide retreat in commodities. Gold fell more than 1 per cent to $1,225.20 a troy ounce, the lowest since mid-March, while silver touched its lowest level since the start of the year, down more than 1 per cent to $16.17.

週四的油價下跌正值大宗商品價格普遍出現回落。金價下跌逾1%，至每金衡盎司1225.20美元，爲3月中旬以來最低，而銀價也觸及今年初以來最低水平，下跌逾1%，至16.17美元。

Meanwhile, copper fell 1.6 per cent to $5,504 a tonne. Corn was down by 2.1 per cent to $3.58? a bushel.

與此同時，銅價下跌1.6%，至每噸5504美元。玉米價格下跌了2.1%，至每蒲式耳3.5850美元。

Oil investors and analysts have said that while Opec countries have hit their target of cutting more than 1.2m barrels a day, data suggest the group’s exports have not declined by a similar margin.

石油投資者和分析師曾表示，雖然歐佩克國家達到了日產量減少逾120萬桶的目標，但數據顯示，歐佩克原油出口並未出現類似幅度的下降。

Opec and non-Opec ministers are set to meet again at the end of this month in Vienna. Reports suggesting a lack of agreement helped send prices lower on Thursday, but participants are ultimately expected to extend the supply cut beyond an initial six-month period that runs until the end of June.

歐佩克和非歐佩克產油國部長級官員將於本月底在維也納再次會晤。報道顯示，缺乏共識助長了週四的油價下跌，但預計與會國最終會把減產期限延長。原本商定的減產期爲6個月，到今年6月底止。

Even though global energy agencies still believe supply and demand will come into balance in the second half of this year, those crude inventories whose size can be easily tracked remain stubbornly high. The market is focused on the US stockpiles even if there are strong declines elsewhere, analysts say.

雖然全球能源機構依然認爲，石油供需將在今年下半年達到平衡，但那些規模很容易被追蹤到的原油庫存仍居高不下。分析師表示，即便其它地區的庫存出現大幅下降，但市場還是專注於美國的庫存。

“Hopes of US stock rebalancing are being thrown into doubt,” said Tamas Varga at London-based oil broker PVM.

倫敦石油經紀商PVM的塔馬斯?瓦爾加(Tamas Varga)說：“對美國庫存將重新實現平衡的期待，正受到質疑。”

While US energy department data showed that crude inventories declined last week, it was by less than anticipated. US gasoline stocks also climbed as refineries processed more crude oil just as demand for the fuel weakened.

儘管美國能源部門的數據顯示上週原油庫存有所下降，但降幅低於預期。美國汽油庫存還出現攀升——就在汽油需求減弱之際，美國煉油廠加工了更多原油。

Meanwhile, US crude oil production increased for the 11th straight week to almost 9.3m b/d, its highest level since August 2015, according to estimates by the US government.

與此同時，根據美國政府的估計，美國原油日產量連續第11周增加，達到近930萬桶，是自2015年8月以來的最高水平。

“An Opec extension is baked into market expectations, but roaring shale growth makes the sizeable but too small a cut completely lose its potency,” said Jamie Webster, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Compliance may be high but the metric of success — substantial stock draws — shows the inadequacy.”

“歐佩克減產期延長已被納入市場預期，但頁岩油氣產量勢頭兇猛的增長，讓規模可觀但仍嫌不足的減產完全起不到什麼作用，”哥倫比亞大學(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究員傑米?韋伯斯特(Jamie Webster)說。“即便減產可能得到嚴格執行，但最終目的是要實現大幅減少庫存，就這一點而言，減產還不夠。”