中國零售物業面臨嚴峻前景

One of China’s leading property tycoons has warned of a grim outlook for retail landlords as overcapacity and the rapid growth of ecommerce hit shopping malls in the world’s second-biggest economy.

中國領先的地產大亨之一警告稱，零售物業的業主面臨嚴峻前景，原因是供過於求和電子商務快速增長打擊了世界第二大經濟體的購物中心。

Zhang Xin, the chief executive and majority owner of Soho China, said the commercial property developer focused on Beijing and Shanghai had “pretty much converted all of our retail space, with a very few exceptions, to offices”.

SOHO中國首席執行官和多數股股東張欣表示，這家專注於北京和上海的商業地產開發商差不多已經把自己的所有零售空間都改造爲辦公室，只有極少數例外。

“You have some really well run high-end retail that will do well,” she said. “But way too many badly run high-end [malls] that won’t do well. And the low end has been beaten by online, so they are quickly disappearing.”

“有一些真正經營有方的高端零售商場會做得很好，”她表示。“但是，太多經營不善的高端商場的日子不會好過。而低端商場已被網上商場擊敗，所以它們在快速消失。”

In the heady days of easy credit and rapid economic growth of the past decade, developers in China rushed to build malls. But many shops and department stores have closed in the past two years as sales have slowed and online commerce has accelerated, exacerbating overcapacity that has left ghost malls across the country.

在過去10年寬鬆信貸和經濟快速增長的激動人心的日子裏，中國開發商競相建造商場。但在過去兩年裏，隨着實體商店銷售放緩，而在線商務加快增長，許多商店和百貨公司關門，不斷加劇的供應過剩在全國各地導致了鬼城般的商場。

Ms Zhang said Soho China, which she runs with her husband, was keen to tap into resilient demand for office space.

張欣和丈夫一起執掌SOHO中國，她表示，該公司熱衷於利用辦公室空間的需求彈性。

She cited Soho’s recently completed Guanghualu 2 project in central Beijing, where 30,000 square metres of retail space was converted into shared offices under the 3Q brand the company launched last year.

她舉了最近在北京市中心完工的光華路SOHO2項目的例子，該項目的3萬平方米零售空間被改造成共享辦公室，使用該公司去年推出的3Q品牌。

“We have quite a nice shopping mall we designed but, having realised there was hardly any market, we turned this into our flagship 3Q with 3,300 seats,” she said on Thursday on a trip to Hong Kong to announce half-yearly results.

“我們有自己設計的相當不錯的購物中心，但在意識到幾乎沒有市場後，我們把這裏變成了我們的旗艦3Q，提供3300個工位，”她在週四到香港宣佈半年度業績時表示。

Ms Zhang, whose company is the biggest developer of offices in China’s top two cities, says the new serviced offices are popular with local and international internet companies such as Uber, Sina and Meituan Dianping that often need extra space at short notice.

張欣的公司是北京和上海的最大辦公空間開發商。她表示，新的服務式辦公室受到當地和國際互聯網公司的歡迎，如優步(Uber)、新浪(Sina)和美團點評(Meituan Dianping)，這些公司往往需要在短時間內獲得額外辦公空間。

Soho China aims to have 16,000 seats across 16 centres this year and plans to expand to cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.

SOHO中國計劃今年在16箇中心提供1.6萬個座位，並計劃擴張至廣州、深圳和杭州等城市。

The move is part of a shift from an investment-heavy “build-and-sell” approach to a “build-and-hold” strategy to generate more stable rental income.

此舉是轉變經營模式的一部分，即從投資較大的“建造和銷售”模式，轉向“建造和持有”戰略，以產生更穩定的租金收入。

Soho China’s revenue jumped by 85 per cent year-on-year to Rmb727m ($110m) in the first half of the year because of an increase in rental income, and profit after tax quadrupled to Rmb595m, boosted by valuation gains.

SOHO中國的營業收入在今年上半年同比躍升85%，至7.27億元人民幣（合1.1億美元），原因是租金收入增長，同時稅後利潤增長三倍，至5.95億元人民幣，得益於估值攀升。

But she said Soho China was still open to selling some non-core properties, particularly with many cash-rich Chinese insurers willing to pay high prices for assets with good rental yields.

但張欣表示，SOHO中國仍有可能出售一些非核心地產，尤其是鑑於中國許多資金充裕的保險公司願意出高價買下租金收益率較好的資產。

After the sale of one property this year drew bids from many Chinese insurers, she decided to put three more buildings on the market to cash in on their demand for suitable assets.

在今年出售一處地產吸引多家中國保險商競價後，她決定出售另外三棟建築物，藉助保險公司對合適資產的需求獲利。

Investors were initially sceptical about Soho China’s change of model but after slumping last year, its Hong Kong-listed shares are up by 40 per cent.

投資者最初對SOHO中國改變經營模式感到懷疑，但該公司在香港上市的股票在去年大跌後已反彈40%。

Analysts at Credit Suisse say the asset sales should “unlock value” and support dividend payments as Soho works to boost its rental income.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析師表示，上述資產出售應當能夠“釋放價值”，在SOHO中國努力提高其租金收入之際支持派息。