貨幣起義:哪一種貨幣能推翻美元統治

When the euro was launched at the start of the century, it was meant to be a rival to the dollar. Turning it into the world's trading and reserve currency was, unofficially at least, part of the reason for creating it.

本世紀初推出歐元時，設計者們是有心讓其與美元一爭高下的。使歐元成爲全球貿易和儲備貨幣雖然不是官方提法，但至少是創立歐元的部分原因。

Officials from Frankfurt and Brussels missed no opportunity to crow over every sign that the euro was gaining ground on the U.S. dollar as a global standard. Every time a central bank increased its holdings of euros, it was presented as a triumph for Europe, and a defeat for the U.S.

只要一出現歐元取代美元成爲全球基準的跡象，法蘭克福和布魯塞爾的官員們就會吹噓一番。只要有央行增持歐元，就會被標榜爲歐洲擊敗美國而取得的勝利。

There were some successes along the way. Over the first decade of the euro's existence, it steadily increased its share of global reserves, and there was talk of key commodity prices being switched out of dollars. It wasn't hard to understand why. The euro-zone has a bigger economy than the U.S. economy, and even this far into the crisis it still runs smaller deficits if you measure it as a single economy. Until the Greek crisis erupted, it was starting to look like a stronger currency.

歐元問世以來曾創造過一些輝煌。在歐元出現後的頭十年裏，其在全球外匯儲備中的份額穩步增加，還有傳聞稱歐元會取代美元，成爲主要大宗商品的計價貨幣。箇中原因並不難理解。歐元區的經濟規模比美國大，即使是在歐元區深陷危機泥潭的當下，如果將其作爲單個經濟體來衡量，歐元區的赤字規模仍小於美國。在希臘危機爆發之前，歐元已開始呈現走強趨勢。

Now, however, that has been thrown into reverse.

然而，如今這一切發生了逆轉。

The latest figures from the International Monetary Fund tell us that developing countries got rid of $45 billion of euro reserves in 2012, and have sold off $90 billion since 2011. The developing nations ─ which matter, because as big exporters they generally run trade surpluses and so rack up big reserves ─ kept 31% of their holdings in euros back in 2009. Now it is down to just 25%.

來自國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的最新數據告訴我們，發展中國家2012年減持了合450億美元的歐元儲備，2011年以來已拋售了合900億美元的歐元儲備。發展中國家──這些國家很重要，因爲作爲出口大國，它們一般擁有貿易順差，從而積攢了鉅額外匯儲備──2009年歐元持有規模佔外匯儲備的31%。如今，這一比例降到了25%。

There are increasing signs people are hoarding dollars as well. According to recent figures from the Federal Reserve, the amount of dollar cash in circulation has jumped 42% since 2008, mainly because Europeans are stashing an ever-increasing number of high-value bills under their mattresses.

此外，有越來越多的跡象顯示，普通人也在囤積美元。美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)的數據顯示，2008年以來流通中的美元現金量攀升了42%，主要因爲歐洲人在不斷囤積高面值美鈔。

'As Europe's crisis worsened in the spring of 2010, U.S. currency holdings rose sharply, ' said John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, in his bank's annual report. 'And they continued to rise as economic and political turmoil and uncertainty about the future sent Europeans scrambling to convert some of their euros to dollars.'

舊金山聯邦儲備銀行(San Francisco Fed)行長威廉姆斯(John Williams)在該行年度報告中稱：“隨着2010年春季歐洲危機的惡化，美元持有量大幅增加。之後又持續增加，因爲經濟、政治形勢的動盪以及圍繞未來走向的不確定性促使歐洲人紛紛將部分歐元換成美元。”

It is a fair bet that flight into dollars has accelerated since the Cyprus crisis. A lot more $100 bills will have been stashed away across Southern Europe. There will have been a lot more interest as well in the emerging digital currencies. The Russians, according to Internet search data, have been showing the most interest in Bitcoin, but we can be certain many Europeans have started investigating it as well.

塞浦路斯危機發生以來，避險資金流向美元的步伐可能有所加快。在南歐，人們會囤積更多面值100美元的鈔票。此外，對新興數字貨幣的興趣也會大大增強。互聯網搜索數據顯示，對比特幣(Bitcoin)最感興趣的是俄羅斯人，但我們可以肯定，歐洲其他國家也有很多人已經開始考察比特幣了。

After all, it now seems clear that no deposit in any euro-zone bank is really safe. After the crisis in Cyprus, governments have shown they are willing to raid accounts for cash when they need to. If they've done that in Cyprus, they can do it in Spain and Italy as well. Indeed, it is not really clear whether a deposit held in euros at any bank ─ whether European or not ─ is really secure. Once governments start seizing assets arbitrarily, there are not many limits on what they might do.

畢竟，目前看來歐元區顯然沒有任何一家銀行的存款是真正安全的。塞浦路斯危機後政府的所作所爲顯示出，他們會在必要時劫掠存款賬戶以獲取現金。既然他們能在塞浦路斯這樣做，他們在西班牙和意大利也一樣能這樣做。的確，任何銀行（不管是不是歐洲銀行）的歐元存款都不能保證絕對安全。政府一旦開始肆意攫取資產，他們的所作所爲就沒什麼底線可言了。

It is hard to think of a clearer incentive to move your money out of the euro.

這無疑是將資金撤出歐元資產的最明確的誘因了。

Where is it all going to go? Despite all the hype, not many people are going to put a lot of money into new digital currencies like Bitcoin, at least not until they have a much better track record. Other big currencies such as the yen or the pound have central banks intent on trashing them. There is a limit to how much gold people want to own, and small safe haven currencies like the Swiss franc or the Norwegian krone can't handle the vast amounts of capital moving out of the euro.

那麼資金會流向哪裏呢？雖然新興數字貨幣受到熱炒，但不會有很多人把大筆資金投向比特幣這樣的新興數字貨幣，至少在這類貨幣的過往表現大有起色之前不會。日圓和英鎊等其他主要貨幣則有央行想要拋售。人們想要持有的黃金規模是有限的，而瑞士法郎和挪威克朗等小型避險貨幣則無法吸納流出歐元的海量資金。

The result? The dollar is now back on top, for now at least.

結果是什麼呢？美元現在重登王者寶座，至少暫時如此。

For investors, that matters. The dominant global currency is always going to be an essential part of every portfolio. The former French President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing once described controlling the world's reserve currency as an 'exorbitant privilege' ─ and since he went on to become one of the key architects of the euro, it is clear he intended to grab those privileges for Europe.

對投資者來說這一點很重要。佔據支配地位的全球性貨幣始終是所有投資組合的關鍵組成部分。法國前總統德斯坦(Val口ry Giscard d’Estaing)曾把對全球儲備貨幣的控制稱爲“囂張的特權”──德斯坦後來成爲歐元的主要設計師之一，所以他顯然是想爲歐洲奪取這些特權。

The benefits are clear. Because everyone has to own the global currency, borrowing costs are lower than they would otherwise be. It is impossible to have a balance of payments crisis no matter how vast the deficit, because you can just issue a lot more currency to pay for it. Indeed, a lot of your debt is free. According to the Fed, two-thirds of the $1.175 trillion of dollar cash is held abroad, amounting to a vast interest-free loan to the U.S. It would cost $19 billion a year to service that debt.

這其中的好處是顯而易見的。由於各國都必須擁有全球儲備貨幣，這樣借款成本就會降低。此外，無論赤字有多高，也不會出現國際收支危機，因爲只要增發一大堆貨幣來填補赤字就可以了。你的很多債務其實都是無息的。美聯儲稱，總計1.175萬億的美元現金有三分之二是海外持有的，這等於讓美國獲得了鉅額無息貸款，否則，美國一年要花費190億美元用於償債。

True, the economic fundamentals don't really justify the dollar's position any more. Its public finances are in worse shape than almost any major economy apart from the U.K. It is no longer the dominant player in world trade it was 60 years ago. Not because the U.S. is doing badly, but because the world economy has got so much bigger. By 2016, according to IMF estimates, China will have overtaken it as the world's largest economy

沒錯，美國的經濟基本面與美元的地位已經不那麼匹配了。美國的公共財政狀況比除英國以外的絕大多數主要經濟體都要糟。美國已不像60年前那樣在世界貿易領域佔據支配地位了。這不是因爲美國表現差，而是因爲世界經濟規模已比當時大得多。國際貨幣基金組織估計，到2016年，中國會超越美國，成爲全球最大的經濟體。

A challenger to the dollar will emerge eventually. After Britain was eclipsed by Germany and then the U.S., sterling staggered along for a while as a reserve currency, but its pivotal role in the global financial system could not be maintained for long.

美元的挑戰者終有一天會出現。當年在英國被德國和美國相繼超越之後，英鎊在一段時間內仍然勉強保持着儲備貨幣的地位，但其在全球金融體系中的核心地位無法長期保持下去。

Something will replace the dollar. But it isn't going to be the euro. The endless crisis within the single currency area, and the reckless decision to seize bank deposits in Cyprus has put paid to that.

美元終將被某種貨幣取代，但這種貨幣不會是歐元。歐元區無休止的危機和塞浦路斯攫取銀行存款的魯莽決定都使歐元無法代替美元成爲儲備貨幣。

And in the absence of any serious competitor the dollar is going to remain the cornerstone of the global financial system for at least another decade, and will be a key part of every investment portfolio.

由於缺少勢均力敵的競爭對手，美元至少在未來十年裏仍將是全球金融體系的基石，而且是所有投資組合的關鍵組成部分。