中國再現三角債問題 Unpaid bills add to China debt problems as receivables mount

Times have changed for Yu Xingzhi since China’s economic boom years. Despite the slowing economy, sales at Shanghai Caison Color Material Chemical, are holding up. The trouble is, her customers — garment manufacturers and packaging producers buying her dyes and inks — are taking more time to pay for what they buy.

對虞幸芝來說，與中國經濟高速發展的時期相比，時代不同了。儘管經濟不斷放緩，但上海彩生色料化學股份有限公司(Shanghai Caison Color Material Chemical)的銷售保持得還行。麻煩在於，她的客戶——服裝生產商和包裝用品生產商——支付貨款的週期越來越長。

“Receivables are the unavoidable problem for traditional manufacturers. If you don’t accept receivables, you have no business. It’s standard industry practice, even though no one likes it,” says Ms Yu, the dye maker’s general manager.

身爲這家染料生產企業總經理的虞幸芝表示：“對傳統制造商來說，應收賬款是不可避免的問題。如果你不接受應收賬款，你就接不到業務。這是標準的行業做法，即便沒有人喜歡它。”

It is a vicious circle and one threatening the health of the economy. Ever longer delays in bills being paid is creating a chain of squeezed cashflow and debt that runs from large state owned enterprises through to smaller suppliers and even employees struggLing to pay their own bills.

這是一個惡性循環，而且有可能危及經濟健康。付款週期越來越長，正在形成連環的現金流緊張和債務，影響各類企業，從大型國企到較小的供應商都不能倖免，甚至波及難以支付個人賬單的員工。

Listed companies had to wait a median 70 days to receive payment last year, the longest delay in 14 years, as cash flows tightened amid slack final demand. That compares with a median 60 days in 2014 and 46 days in 2011, according to Wind Information, a Chinese financial database.

隨着最終需求疲弱導致現金流緊張，上市公司去年收到應收賬款的中位數時間達到70天，是14年來最長的拖延。中國金融數據提供商萬得資訊(Wind Information)的數據顯示，2014年和2011年的收款中位數時間分別是60天和46天。

Ms Yu says that an increasing share of customers now insist on paying with a bankers’ acceptance rather than cash. Similar to a post-dated cheque, bankers acceptances are a kind of IOU from a company and its bank. Ms Xu says that a few years ago, 5 to 10 per cent of her sales were paid this way, but that has now risen to 20 to 30 per cent. Most cannot be cashed for 90 or 180 days.

虞幸芝表示，現在堅持用銀行承兌匯票（而非現金）付款的客戶比例越來越高。與遠期支票類似，銀行承兌匯票是公司及其銀行簽發的一種借據。虞幸芝表示，數年前，5%-10%的客戶使用這種方式付款，但現在這一比例已升至20%-30%。銀行承兌匯票大多要等90天或180天才能兌付。

Nor does the problem end with Ms Yu. “We have no choice but to pass the delays upstream (to our suppliers),” she says.

問題也沒有在虞幸芝這裏結束。她說：“我們別無選擇，只能向上遊（我們的供應商）延遲付款。”

China’s supply chain is more dense than in Europe or the US, and often concentrated in localities — meaning bills that go unpaid for months have a knock-on effect that can quickly rip through entire industrial ecosystems.

中國供應鏈的密集程度超過歐洲或者美國，而且往往集中於某些地區，這意味着數月收不到貨款就會產生連鎖反應，迅速傳導至整個產業生態系統。

Thus when Shenzhen Eycom Technology Co, which makes hardware and software for mobile phones, held up payments two of its Shenzhen-listed vendors were forced to warn investors in stock exchange filings. In Nanchang city, in China’s southern Jiangxi province, a small manufacturer of medical-grade plastic blamed late payments from customers for its inability to pay Rmb1.1m in salaries to more than 120 employees last September, prompting a fine from the local labour bureau, according to local media.

因此當製造手機軟硬件產品的深圳億通科技(Shenzhen Eycom Technology Co)拖欠貨款時，它的兩家在深圳上市的供應商被迫在提交給交易所的監管申報中向投資者發出警告。據當地媒體報道，在中國江西省南昌市，一家生產醫用塑料的小型製造商去年9月將其拖欠120多名員工110萬元人民幣工資、招致當地勞動局罰款歸咎於客戶拖欠貨款。

The woes of the Shenzhen group, which operates in a notoriously competitive and low-margin industry, illustrate what economists say is the crux of the problem: weak final demand, especially in low-end manufacturing sectors wracked with overcapacity. Companies must whittle down inventories before they have enough cash to pay suppliers.

深圳億通科技處於一個競爭激烈且利潤微薄的行業。該公司的困境表明了經濟學家所說的問題癥結所在：最終需求疲弱，尤其是在深受產能過剩困擾的低端製造業部門。企業在有足夠資金支付供應商之前，必須先削減庫存。

But the build-up of receivables also reflects bottlenecks in the financial system. China’s central bank has eased monetary policy substantially since late 2014. But looser money often fails to reach smaller, privately owned businesses that struggle most in paying their bills on time.

不過，應收賬款的累積也反映出了金融系統中的瓶頸。自2014年末以來，中國央行大幅放寬了貨幣政策。但是，釋放的資金往往無法流到那些最難以及時支付賬單的小型私有企業手中。

“It looks like liquidity is very ample, but a lot of that is being used to help the real estate sector re-finance. It's not circulating widely through the economy,” says Shao Yu, economist at Oriental Securities in Shanghai.

“流動性看起來非常充足，但是其中很大一部分都用於幫助房地產板塊再融資了。資金並未在整個經濟體內部廣泛流通起來，”上海東方證券的經濟學家邵宇表示。

The banks, however, sniff opportunity in the rising stock of receivables: both financing and securitising payments. Financing is dominated by the Big 4 state-owned “bad banks”, which once exclusively purchased non-performing loans from commercial banks but have now diversified into other distressed assets.

然而，銀行在不斷累積的應收賬款中嗅到了商機：融資和證券化支付。融資方面由四大國有“壞賬銀行”主導。它們曾經只收購商業銀行的不良貸款，但如今其業務已經延伸至其他困境資產。

At China Huarong Asset Management, the country’s biggest bad bank, nearly two thirds of newly acquired assets, or Rmb147bn, were from non-banks in 2015. Non-bank assets were “mainly” corporate receivables, Huarong said in its annual report. Following years of pilot projects, in February, eight government agencies led by the People's Bank of China issued policy guidelines that pledged to “accelerate securitisation of receivables” in order to “revitalise the stock of industrial assets”.

在中國最大的壞賬銀行——中國華融資產管理公司(China Huarong Asset Management)，2015新收購的資產中有近三分之二（1470億元人民幣）來自非銀行機構。華融在其年報中表示，非銀行資產“主要”是企業應收賬款。在進行多年的試點項目後，以中國人民銀行爲首的8個部委在今年2月公佈了政策指導建議，承諾“加快推進應收賬款證券化”以“盤活工業企業存量資產”。

Many Hong Kong exporters have adopted a 30-40-30 structure to keep cashflows running, whereby customers make partial payment before, during and after shipment.

香港很多出口企業採用30-40-30支付結構來保持現金流週轉，即客戶在貨物發運前、運輸途中以及交付後進行分批付款。

Willy Lin, managing director of Hong Kong-based Milo’s Knitwear — which exports upmarket China-made clothes to Europe — says he and other Hong Kong exporters are “playing safe” with payment terms. He typically uses a 30-40-30 structure in which customers make partial payment before, during and after shipment.

向歐洲出口中國製造高檔服裝的香港美羅針織廠(Milo's Knitwear)的董事總經理林宣武(Willy Lin)表示，他和香港其他出口商在付款方面“求穩”。他通常利用30-40-30結構，即客戶在貨物發運前、運輸途中以及交付後分批付款。

Mr Lin says that high-end manufacturers, whose customers cannot easily switch to a competitor, have more bargaining power, but that he is aware many smaller Chinese manufacturers face increasing difficulty.

林宣武稱，高端製造商的客戶無法轉投競爭廠商，因此它們擁有更大議價能力，但據他了解，中國很多小型製造商日益面臨困難。

“The problem is quite common in mainland private enterprises because many of the companies rely on guanxi (connections) and nepotism to make a business deal. A deal usually comes from friend of a friend or someone’s relatives,” says Mr Lin.

“這個問題在內地私有企業中間相當普遍，因爲很多公司依靠關係和裙帶關係做生意。交易對象通常是朋友的朋友或某人的親戚，”林宣武稱。