新興世界停下了追趕的腳步 EM ex China growth slips below that of developed world
Emerging markets, by definition, are meant to emerge. Strip out China, however, and the economies of the developing world are now growing more slowly than the developed world for the first time since 1999.
新興市場，顧名思義，是註定要嶄露頭角的。然而，不包括中國在內，發展中世界當前的經濟增速低於發達世界，這是2009年以來首次出現這種情況。
Emerging markets ex-China eked out output growth of just 1.92 per cent last year, according to IMF data, below even the spluttering growth of the developed world, where output rose 1.98 per cent.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據顯示，不包括中國在內的新興市場去年僅勉強取得1.92%的產值增長，比發達世界1.98%的增長率還低。
Moreover, this plays down the travails of those living in developing countries: when their faster population growth is taken into account, the underperformance of EMs vis-à-vis developed countries in per capita terms is starker still.
而且，這沒有充分反映出發展中國家居民的艱辛：如果考慮它們的人口增長較快，按人均水平計算，新興市場增長落後於發達國家的狀況就更加明顯了。
In other words, China aside, the universe of emerging countries is no longer on course to converge with the richer world. Instead, it is falling further behind.
換言之，不包括中國在內的新興世界不再繼續向富裕世界趨同。相反，它落後的程度在加深。
“The disappearance of the EM-DM growth differential should be a particular cause of concern,” said Guillermo Mondino, head of emerging markets research at Citi.
花旗(Citi)新興市場研究主管吉列爾莫•蒙迪諾(Guillermo Mondino)表示：“新興市場與發達市場增速差異的消失值得多加關注。”
“It’s called lack of convergence. The theory suggests that emerging markets ought to be growing faster than developed markets and catching up [but] I think [the emerging world] is probably going into a little bit of a recession now,” added Mr Mondino, who defined an EM recession as growth significantly below the potential rate.
蒙迪諾稱：“這被稱爲缺乏趨同性。按照趨同理論，新興市場增長應該快於發達市場，逐步追趕後者，（但）我認爲（新興世界）現在可能有些衰退。”蒙迪諾將“新興市場衰退”定義爲經濟增速顯著低於潛在增長率。
The futures of billions of people will depend on whether this reversal of the trend towards convergence proves to be a blip, or whether it is instead the strong showing of emerging countries during the 2000-2014 period that ultimately turns out to have been anomalous.
幾十億人的未來將取決於這種趨同的逆轉是一個暫時現象，還是新興國家在2000年至2014年期間的強勁表現最終證明是異常的。
If the rapid industrialisation of China during this period, which spurred the commodity “supercycle” — spreading the benefits across much of the emerging world — proves to be a one-off step change, the danger is that there could be a return to the norms of the 1980s and 1990s. Then growth in EMs ex-China typically lagged behind that of the developed world, as the first chart shows.
如果中國在此期間的快速工業化——由此催生了大宗商品“超級週期”，讓許多新興國家受益——證明是一次性的變化，新興世界就有可能回到上世紀八九十年代的狀況。在當時，如第一張圖顯示，不包括中國在內的新興市場增長通常落後於發達世界。
One argument against this is that many EM countries, such as India, Turkey and South Korea, are, in fact, net commodity importers. As such, it might be sensible to think they should be able to grow more strongly in the current environment than when commodity prices were at unprecedented highs.
反對這種觀點的一個理由是，許多新興市場國家，比如印度、土耳其和韓國，實際上是大宗商品淨進口國。因此，以下這種觀點可能是合理的：與大宗商品價格處於空前高位的時期相比，這些國家在當前環境下的增長應該更爲強勁。
In other words, low commodity prices should be redistributive (transferring wealth from Brazil to India, for example) rather than reducing growth across the EM world.
換言之，大宗商品價格低企應該起到再分配作用（例如將財富從巴西轉移至印度），而非削弱整個新興市場的增長。
Analysis by Citi casts doubt on this, however. Its data suggest that, since the late 1970s, there has been a reasonably strong correlation between capital flows into emerging markets and the oil price, as the second chart shows.
然而，花旗的分析讓人對這種說法產生懷疑。其數據表明，自上世紀70年代末以來，新興市場的資本流入與油價之間存在很強的相關性，如第二張圖所示。
Mr Mondino said this reflects the recycling of petrodollars from oil exporters to emerging markets in general, which Citi describes as a “robust, albeit mysterious, phenomenon”.
蒙迪諾表示，這反映石油美元通常從石油出口國循環至新興市場的情況，花旗將這稱爲一個“強烈卻神祕的現象”。
“High oil prices supported EM GDP growth in the 1970s by increasing the availability of external financing. We think lower oil prices in the second half of the 1980s helped to make that decade a growth disaster by helping to prevent any recovery in the flow of capital to EM.
“在上世紀70年代，高油價加大了外部融資的可獲得性，從而支持了新興市場的GDP增長。我們認爲上世紀80年代後五年裏油價下跌阻止了新興市場資本流入的復甦，從而導致新興市場在那十年的增長乏力。”
“And in the 2000s, high oil prices helped to support capital flows and robust growth,” said Mr Mondino. “Now, in the midst of a very sharp fall in oil prices, capital flows to EM are in a state of collapse.”
蒙迪諾表示：“在本世紀頭十年，高油價幫助支持了資本流動和強勁增長。現在，在油價急劇下跌情況下，新興市場的資本流入處於崩潰之中。”
If this analysis is correct, it suggests that emerging markets will struggle to attract significant capital inflows unless and until the oil price recovers.
如果這種分析是正確的，那麼在油價復甦之前，新興市場將很難吸引大量的資本流入。
Moreover, with the differential between EM ex-China and DM growth now negative, Mr Mondino feared that “one of the main pillars of the investment case for EM is being eroded”.
另外，鑑於不包括中國的新興市場當前經濟增速低於發達市場，蒙迪諾擔心，“投資新興市場理由的主要支柱之一正受到侵蝕”。
He added: “There used to be a virtuous circle that connected capital flows, EM GDP growth and the oil price: strong growth supported the oil price, which supported capital flows through petrodollar recycling and, in turn, plentiful capital inflows supported growth.”
他補充稱：“曾經存在一個良性循環，將資金流動、新興市場GDP增長和油價聯繫在一起：強勁增長支撐油價，油價通過石油美元循環支撐資金流動，相應的，大量的資金流入又支撐了經濟增長。”
Given that the aggregate current account balance of 15 large oil exporters will turn negative this year for the first time since 1998, according to forecasts from the IMF, “it seems as though this has now turned into a vicious circle,” Mr Mondino concluded.
根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的預測，今年，前15個產油大國的經常賬戶差額總和將出現自1998年以來的首個負值。有鑑於此，蒙迪諾總結稱：“如今良性循環似乎變成了惡性循環。”
Despite this, Citi’s central forecast is that growth in EM ex-China will gradually rise back above that of the developed world in the next year or so, with EM ex-China growth recovering to a little over 3 per cent in 2017, although David Lubin, head of emerging markets economics at Citi, suggests the risks are to the downside.
儘管如此，花旗的核心預測是，除中國以外的新興市場增速差不多明年將逐漸重新超過發達國家，除中國以外的新興市場增速將在2017年恢復到略超過3%的水平。不過花旗新興市場經濟主管戴維•盧賓(David Lubin)認爲，增速面臨下行風險。
Others are also reasonably optimistic. Tom Becket, chief investment officer at PSigma Investment Management, believed the bulk of the EM slowdown happened last year, and growth is now flattening out.
其他人也相當樂觀。PSigma Investment Management首席投資官湯姆•貝克特(Tom Becket)認爲，新興市場放緩主要是在去年發生的，增長正在進入平臺期。
“What we are probably seeing now is a stabilisation at a low level in emerging market economies. These levels are probably more sustainable,” he said.
他表示：“我們現在可能看到，新興市場經濟體在一個低水平上企穩。這一水平或許更可持續。”
Nicolas Schlotthauer, head of emerging markets fixed income at Deutsche Asset Management, said he did not see a trend towards even weaker growth in emerging markets, despite the headwinds, arguing that energy importers would benefit from lower oil prices.
德意志銀行資產管理公司(Deutsche Asset Management)的新興時候固定收益主管尼古拉斯•施羅特豪爾(Nicolas Schlotthauer)表示，儘管存在不利因素，但他不認爲新興市場增長會進一步放緩，他認爲，能源進口國將從低油價中受益。
As for Citi’s fear that low oil prices will deprive all EMs of capital, Mr Schlotthauer was confident of replacement inflows, such as public-private partnerships in the infrastructure field. He also argued domestic sources of finance, such as pension funds and insurance companies, could take up some of the slack in a number of EMs.
花旗擔心，低油價將切斷所有新興市場國家的資本流入，但施羅特豪爾相信會有替代性資金流入，例如基礎設施領域的公私合作。他還認爲，在一些新興市場國家，國內融資來源（例如養老基金和保險公司）可能會填補部分空缺。
Mr Mondino, though, feared that sluggish economic growth in EMs could lead to damaging policy responses, such as a sharp rise in protectionist measures witnessed in recent years.
然而，蒙迪諾擔心，新興市場疲弱的經濟增長可能會導致破壞性的政策迴應，例如最近幾年看到的保護主義措施大大增加。
“We are seeing a gradual move away from globalisation, more frequent use of barriers to capital mobility and a gradual weakening of the inflation targeting framework that many EMs had adopted,” he said, citing Turkey, Brazil and Mexico of examples of the latter.
他表示：“我們看到它們正逐漸放棄全球化、更多地使用限制資金流動的壁壘，同時很多新興市場國家已採用的通脹目標框架正逐漸削弱。”他舉了土耳其、巴西和墨西哥的例子來說明後一種問題。
“We clearly see a weakening of the policy framework that was a critical backbone of the positive EM story of the past decade. It’s being eroded on the margin.”
“我們清楚的看到，這種政策框架正在削弱，它是過去10年新興市場被看好的重要依據。它的邊緣正受到侵蝕。”
