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阿拉伯世界的商業潛力 Unrealised business potential of Arab world

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阿拉伯世界的商業潛力 Unrealised business potential of Arab world

Many consider the term the “Arab world” to be a misnomer, for while it identifies a linguistic region with deep historical, cultural and religious affinities it lumps together, say, a Dubai and an Aleppo. Yet many of those same people find it hard to remember a time when this region’s prospects looked more uniformly bleak. Everyone can discern the commercial vibrancy of a city like Dubai, and differentiate it from the apocalyptic ruins of Aleppo, the war-stricken business hub of Syria. But there is a pall of violence and upheaval that seems to envelop the region as a whole.

許多人認爲“阿拉伯世界”這個詞是個誤稱,因爲它識別了一個具有深厚歷史、文化和宗教淵源的語言區,但同時也把迪拜和阿勒波(Aleppo)歸爲一類。然而,其中不少人也認爲,很難想起這一地區的整體前景有比現在看上去更加黯淡的時期。每個人都看得到迪拜那種城市的商業活力,並能把它跟受到戰爭摧殘的敘利亞商業樞紐阿勒波的末日廢墟區分開來。但是,一團暴力和動盪的烏雲似乎籠罩着整個地區。

Ethno-sectarian war is cracking Syria and Iraq into de facto partition, with Isis and its cross-border caliphate in both countries threatening the rest of the Levant — and beyond. The cycles of upheaval in Egypt, the most populous Arab state, have turned the country inwards, menaced by Isis in the Sinai to the east and from a crumbling Libya to its west. The absolute monarchies of the Gulf reacted to the wave of the “Arab Spring” turmoil with a mix of repression and largesse, hosing their subjects into quiescence with handouts worth tens of billions of dollars. The oil price collapse has made the long-term affordability of this moot.

民族-宗派間的戰爭使敘利亞和伊拉克出現裂痕,陷入事實上的分裂狀態,這兩個國家境內的“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)及其跨境哈里發,對黎凡特(Levant)其他地區乃至更遙遠的地方構成威脅。在埃及這個人口最多的阿拉伯國家,一撥又一撥的動亂使該國把目光轉向內部,在東面的西奈半島受到ISIS的威脅,在西面受到搖搖欲墜的利比亞的威脅。面對“阿拉伯之春”動盪,海灣的絕對君主制國家綜合運用壓制和慷慨解囊兩種手法作爲應對,拿出數百億美元讓國民閉口不言。油價下跌使得這麼做的長期負擔能力帶有問號。

Progress is visible, as this report shows — from the growing confidence of women in business in Saudi Arabia to entrepreneur Karim Tazi speaking out against corruption in higher places in Morocco. Oil majors remain attracted to Iraq and its vast hydrocarbon reserves, while arms manufacturers, backed by casuistic western governments, continue the scramble for lucrative contracts from Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates.

正如本報告所顯示的那樣,進步是可見的——從沙特商界女性的信心不斷增強,到企業家Karim Tazi大聲疾呼、反對摩洛哥高層的腐敗現象。大型石油企業仍被吸引到伊拉克,同時在言行不一的西方政府支持下,軍火生產商繼續爭取從沙特和阿聯酋等阿拉伯國家獲得利潤豐厚的合同。

Yet the sense of lost opportunity and wasted potential weighs heavily. Talk of Iraq as an oil superpower to rival Saudi Arabia seems premature when this fracturing country cannot deliver electricity to its citizens, let alone security. Egypt signed big contracts this spring, mainly in energy and infrastructure, at an economic summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, a place now better known as the airport where a bomb was placed on a Russian plane. The political class in Lebanon, historically a free-wheeling, laissez-faire economic environment but deeply divided on sectarian lines, cannot agree on a president or terms for overdue general elections, much less how to share recently discovered offshore gas riches, which remain untouched.

不過,錯失機遇和浪費潛能的感覺非常沉重。有關伊拉克將成爲媲美沙特的超級石油大國的言論似乎過早了,因爲這個陷入分裂的國家尚不能爲國民提供電力(更別提安全保障了)。今年春天,埃及在沙姆沙伊赫召開的一次經濟峯會上籤了多份大單,尤其是能源和基建領域的合同。如今,沙姆沙伊赫更被人熟知的是,一枚炸彈在那裏被放到一架俄羅斯飛機上。黎巴嫩在歷史上擁有一個自由自在、放任不管的經濟環境,但沿着宗派界線存在深層次隔閡。該國的政治階層不能在總統人選或早該舉行的大選的條件上達成一致,更別提如何分享近年發現的海上天然氣儲量了,這些資源至今沒有開發。

The weaknesses of institutions, substandard education, and a rule of law at the whim of ruling elites, inhibit domestic as well as foreign investors. They cloud the future of youthful populations made aware by the digital revolution of opportunities they are being denied.

機構薄弱、教育水準不達標,加上統治精英視法治爲兒戲,使國內外投資者卻步。這些因素爲大批年輕人的未來蒙上陰影。數字革命令年輕一代意識到他們被剝奪了什麼樣的機會。

The talent is there. Farouk al-Kasim, an Iraqi engineer from Basra, helped design the structure of Norway’s oil industry and its vast sovereign wealth fund, the envy of the world. Steve Jobs, the late chief executive of Apple, was the son of a Syrian immigrant.

阿拉伯世界不缺人才。來自巴士拉的伊拉克工程師法魯克阿勒卡西姆(Farouk al-Kasim)幫助設計了挪威石油工業和該國龐大主權財富基金的結構。該基金令全世界豔羨。蘋果(Apple)已故首席執行官史蒂夫吠布斯(Steve Jobs)是一名敘利亞移民的兒子。

Arabs do well abroad. Arab countries on the whole, afflicted by cronyism, corruption and state capture by authoritarian elites, need to do far better.

阿拉伯人在國外表現出色。深受裙帶關係、腐敗和威權精英掌控國家困擾的阿拉伯國家,總體上需要做得比目前好得多。

But there are attempts to fight back. A group of expat executives called Lebanese International Finance Executives (Life), for example, is trying to leverage the very strong position of the diaspora in international finance houses to inject knowledge and entrepreneurial opportunity back into their country. The group also suggests foreigners looking to invest need a mix of patience and empathy.

但是,有些人已經在試圖迎接挑戰。例如,一羣被稱爲黎巴嫩國際金融高管(Life)的外派高管,正努力利用國際金融機構中該國移民的強大地位,將知識和創業機會帶回自己的祖國。這個組織還建議尋求投資的外國人拿出耐心和同理心。

Asked what lessons she would offer investors wanting to do business in the region, Paola Barbarino, the Italian chief executive of Life, makes three essential points. First, “give time for relationships to develop” — it is best not do business after first meetings. Second, “respect the wealth of trading experience that the person you’re dealing with can draw on”. Third, “try and understand beforehand the context in which the person operates”.

當被問及她會對想到阿拉伯世界做生意的投資者提供什麼經驗時,意大利籍的Life首席執行官保拉巴爾巴里諾(Paola Barbarino)提出了三個要點。第一,“花時間培養關係”——最好不要見過一次面之後就做生意。第二,“尊重你打交道的人可以利用的豐富交易經驗”。第三,“事先努力瞭解此人運作的大環境”。

Rapport and personal contact is at the heart of business dealings everywhere in the Arab world, which takes time, patience — and an appetite for risk.

在阿拉伯世界的任何角落,相處融洽和個人聯繫在生意中都扮演着核心角色——這需要時間、耐心和願意承擔風險。

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