今年世界貿易增長將嚴重放緩 World trade heads for weakest year since

World trade is on track to grow at its slowest rate since the aftermath of the financial crisis, according to researchers, underlining the fragility of the global economic recovery.

研究人員稱，今年世界貿易增長將放緩至金融危機後最慢速度，突顯全球經濟復甦的脆弱性。

After contracting in the first six months of this year the volume of global merchandise trade grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to the end of September compared with the same quarter last year, according to figures compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, keeper of the monthly World Trade Monitor.

每月發佈《世界貿易監測》(World Trade Monitor)的荷蘭經濟政策研究局(Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)數據顯示，在今年前六個月出現萎縮後，全球商品貿易量在截至9月底的三個月裏同比增長0.7%。

The low figure highlights a perplexing issue for economists: after decades of expansion at twice the rate of the global economy, world trade has slowed in recent years, leading some to proclaim the end of an era of “hyperglobalisation” fed by the rise of China and other emerging economies.

這個偏低的數字凸顯了一個令經濟學家們困惑的問題：在連續幾十年以兩倍於全球經濟的增速增長後，世界貿易在近幾年放緩，這促使一些人宣告，曾經由中國和其他新興經濟體崛起助推的“超級全球化”時代已經告終。

Analysts at Capital Economics said the “frail” trade figures were largely the result of the “continued lacklustre performance of emerging economies”.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師們表示，“虛弱的”貿易數據主要是“新興經濟體繼續表現平平”的結果。

“However, we don’t think this is an early sign of a widespread downturn in the global economy,” they wrote in a note to clients.

“不過，我們並不認爲這是全球經濟普遍低迷的早期跡象，”他們在一份發給客戶的簡報中寫道。

The global pattern of trade had also been depressed by currency movements, they said. While a weak euro had helped eurozone exports rise steadily in volume terms, the strong dollar continued to hinder US exports. That was a pattern, the Capital Economics analysts said, that was likely to continue.

他們表示，全球貿易格局也受到匯率走勢的壓抑。在歐元疲軟有助於歐元區出口量穩步上升的同時，美元的強勢繼續阻礙美國出口。凱投宏觀的分析師們表示，這種格局很可能會持續一段時期。

This year, the World Trade Organisation expects trade growth of 2.8 per cent versus the International Monetary Fund’s expected 3.1 per cent growth in the global economy.

今年，世界貿易組織(WTO)預計全球貿易增長2.8%，而國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計全球經濟增長3.1%。

However, the latest data, released on Tuesday, point to an even grimmer year than the one forecast by the WTO. If the trend in the first nine months of this year continues, 2015 would be by far the worst year for trade since a collapse in trading volumes during 2009 as the global economy ground to a halt in the wake of the financial crisis.

然而，週二公佈的最新數據所描繪的今年形勢比WTO的預測更加嚴峻。如果今年前九個月的趨勢持續下去，對世界貿易而言，2015年將是自2009年（那年全球經濟在遭遇金融危機後陷於停頓，貿易量暴跌）以來最糟糕的年份，並且比其他年份都糟糕許多。

The signs for the final quarter are worrying.

預示最後一個季度情況的種種跡象令人擔憂。

The US Department of Commerce has said that the value of both exports and imports into the world’s biggest consumer economy were down in October from the same month in 2014, following what has been a grim pattern for the year so far.

美國商務部(Department of Commerce)已表示，作爲全球最大消費者經濟的美國今年10月出口和進口總值同比雙雙下降，延續今年以來的嚴峻形勢。

This month, Chinese authorities said exports from the world’s biggest trading economy were down 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier while imports fell 18.8 per cent.

中國政府本月表示，作爲全球最大貿易經濟體的中國10月以美元計出口同比下降6.9%，而進口下降18.8%。

China’s example shows how the slowdown in trade this year has caught many governments by surprise. The ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for 2015 at the beginning of this year. But the country’s total trade has now fallen just over 8 per cent in the first 10 months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.

中國的例子表明，今年貿易放緩讓許多國家的政府措手不及。執政的共產黨在今年初設定了2015年貿易增長6%的目標。但中國在2015年前十個月的貿易總值同比下降8%多一點。

Some economists remain bullish about the road ahead, particularly over the longer term.

一些經濟學家仍看好未來，尤其是在較長期的未來。

In a report released on Tuesday, HSBC and Oxford Economics said they expected the value of global exports to quadruple to $68.5tn by 2050 thanks to the world entering what they called a “third phase of globalisation”.

匯豐(HSBC)和牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)在週二公佈的一份報告中表示，他們預計，得益於世界進入他們所稱的“全球化第三階段”，全球出口總值到2050年將翻兩番，達到68.5萬億美元。