分析 未來A股在全球指數中的權重

China is one of the world’s largest economies and its equity market, combining listings in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, is second only in value to the US. Yet the country remains notably absent from global indices.

中國是世界最大的經濟體之一，其股市總市值（包括上海、深圳和香港股市）名列世界第二，僅次於美國。但在全球指數中，中國所佔的份量仍明顯不足。

China makes up only about three per cent of the MSCI AC World Index, for example, desPite having the world’s second-largest economy. “China is the last great frontier. It is an incredibly large, diverse market and it will be important and impactful when it begins to be added to global benchmarks,” says Mat Lystra, director of international indexes methodology at Russell Indexes.

例如，儘管中國已是世界第二大經濟體，但它在摩根士丹利資本國際所有國家世界指數(MSCI AC World Index)中的權重僅爲約3%。“中國是最後一塊有待開墾的荒原。它是一個極其龐大、多元化的市場，當它開始被納入全球基準時，它的重要性和影響力將突顯出來，”羅素指數(Russell Indexes)國際指數方法學總監馬特•利斯特拉(Mat Lystra)說。

But a greater presence for China in indices is far from simple. This year, both FTSE and MSCI ruled out including A-shares, stocks incorporated in mainland China and denominated in renminbi.

但讓中國在全球指數中擁有更大權重絕非易事。今年，富時(FTSE)和摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)都排除了將中國內地上市的以人民幣計價的A股納入其股票指數的可能性。

Although the A-shares market is both “large and important”, investors have big concerns about its potential inclusion, says Chin-Ping Chia, head of Asia-Pacific research at MSCI.

MSCI亞太區研究主管謝徵儐(Chin-Ping Chia)說，儘管A股市場“既大又重要”，但投資者十分擔心其潛在的包容性。

Chief among these is access to Chinese securities. Hong Kong offers a way in to offshore stocks, but foreign firms currently have to invest in A-shares and Chinese corporate bonds through quota-based systems known as QFII and RQFII.

首要的擔憂是進入中國證券市場的渠道。香港提供了一條投資中國企業在境外上市股票的渠道，但境外公司要想投資A股和中國的企業債，目前只能經由名爲“合格境外機構投資者”(QFII)和“人民幣合格境外機構投資者”(RQFII)的配額體系。

The number of QFII and RQFII licences granted to foreign investors has risen sharply in recent years, jumping by 33 per cent in the year to February 2014 alone, according to FTSE. However, fund firms applying for licences still face tough restrictions, including a minimum level of assets under management.

富時的數據顯示，近年來中國向境外投資者發放的QFII和RQFII牌照數量急劇增多，僅在截至2014年2月的一年裏就增加了33%。但是，申請牌照的基金公司仍面臨嚴苛的限制，包括管理資產額不得低於某個水平。

The current restrictions and the quota-based system mean many asset managers are unable to access the market, says Mr Chia. “The quota is restricted. Some investors are not allocated quotas or do not get sufficient quotas, so they do not have a meaningful exposure,” he says.

謝徵儐說，目前的限制及配額制度使得許多資產管理公司無法進入中國證券市場。他說：“配額是受限制的。一些投資者沒拿到配額、或者沒拿到足夠的配額，因此沒有建立可觀的敞口。

“If you were to put a significant portion of A-shares into the index, the asset manager would not be able to replicate the position in many cases.”

“即使你把很大一部分A股納入指數中，資產管理公司在很多情況下也無法比照着建立相應的頭寸。”

Eddie Pong, director of research analysis at FTSE, says: “If you cannot access [the Chinese market], it doesn’t matter how big it is.”

富時研究分析總監Eddie Pong表示：“如果你無法進入（中國市場），那它再大都跟你沒關係。”

As well as obstacles such as these, Mr Chia says MSCI has concerns around capital mobility rules, including a requirement to invest within six months of being granted a quota.

謝徵儐稱，除了上述障礙，MSCI還擔憂關於資本流動性的規定，包括要求境外投資者在拿到配額後的6個月內進行投資的規定。

The new Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect programme, which allows investors to buy some A-shares via Hong Kong, will address some of the access issues. However, Mr Chia says the scheme is “not perfect”, especially as investors will still not be able to acquire stocks on the Shenzhen exchange.

新啓動的滬港通機制允許投資者經由香港購買部分A股，這將在一定程度上解決進入市場的渠道問題。但是，謝徵儐認爲，這一機制“並不完美”，尤其是考慮到投資者仍無法購買深圳證券交易所上市的股票。

Index providers also bemoan the settlement process in China, which currently differs from conventional standards, and the lack of clarity around capital gains tax.

指數供應商還對中國當前異於常規標準的結算程序以及資本利得稅缺乏透明度頗有微詞。

Yet, despite the difficulties, the day when Chinese stocks appear on global indices is edging closer, says Mr Chia. “It is only a matter of time before China A-shares are included.”

但謝徵儐表示，儘管存在這些困難，中國股票登陸全球指數的日子還是越來越近，“中國A股被納入只是時間問題”。

Mr Pong agrees: “The timeframe we are talking about is probably five years.”

Eddie Pong贊同謝徵儐的觀點，稱：“大概需要5年時間。”

With this in mind, index providers are now grappling with the weighting they should give to Chinese securities in benchmarks.

基於這一點，指數供應商正在設法估算應在基準中賦予中國證券多大的權重。

Shan Lan, head of global equity index change and ETF research at Deutsche Bank, says: “It will be very difficult if not completely impossible for fund managers to replicate the indices, given the constraints that currently exist in accessing China’s domestic equity markets. However, we support the idea of an inclusion starting with a small weight.”

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)全球股指變化和交易所交易基金(ETF)研究主管Shan Lan說：“考慮到中國國內股市目前存在的准入限制，基金管理公司要複製指數是非常困難、乃至完全沒可能的。但我們贊同在納入時先賦予較小的權重。”

This is already happening on the fixed income side, says Sui Chung, managing director of Euromoney Indices. The HSBC Asian Local Bond Index, for example, includes onshore RMB dominated bonds, but not at the Chinese market’s full weighing.

Euromoney Indices董事總經理Sui Chung表示，固定收益領域已經在這樣做了。例如，匯豐亞洲本地債券指數(HSBC Asian Local Bond Index)納入了在岸人民幣債券，但其權重只相當於中國市場應有權重的一部分。

Mr Chung says: “From an index construction point of view, you want the index to represent as accurately as possible any given market.”

Sui Chung說：“從構建指數的角度看，你會希望該指數儘可能準確地代表任何給定的市場。”

This means that for China’s very large market to be represented accurately, “you should include lots of Chinese bonds. But to balance that, you have to have an eye on accessibility. Yes, it is very large, but can investors actually access it?”

這意味着，要想準確代表中國的極爲龐大的市場，“你應當納入大量中國債券。但若想做到平衡，你就需要關注准入程度。沒錯，它非常大，但投資者真能進入嗎？”

On the equities side, Mr Lystra at Russell Indexes says providers are likely to start off with China A-shares accounting for about 10 per cent of an index, with this rising gradually. Earlier this year, FTSE launched its global RQFII and QFII index series.

在股市方面，羅素指數的利斯特拉說，指數供應商一開始時很可能會讓中國A股在一項指數中佔10%左右的權重，然後逐步提高。今年早些時候，富時推出了其全球R/QFII指數系列。

Other index providers are likely to offer similar products, as well as providing customised benchmarks for asset managers that already have access to the A-shares market.

其他指數供應商很可能會推出類似的產品，併爲已有渠道進入A股市場的資產管理公司提供量身定製的基準。

These benchmarks will help investors to prepare for the future possible inclusion of China in global indices, an event Mr Lystra says will be similar to including “another USA”.

這些基準將幫助投資者做好準備，迎接中國或被納入全球指數的那一天——利斯特拉稱，這一事件將類似於納入“另一個美國”。