中美因素或成推動澳元走低的主要力量

The Australian dollar has taken a tumble the past few months. There's good reason to think it has further to fall.

過去幾個月，澳元大幅下跌。人們有充足的理由認爲澳元將進一步走低。

The Reserve Bank of Australia has jawboned its currency lower with warnings it is set to make a rare jump into foreign-exchange markets to boost the flagging economy. But forces outside Australia, in the U.S. and China, are likely to do the heavy lifting of making the Australian currency weaker.

澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)警告說，它計劃採取罕見的措施，干預外匯市場以提振日益疲弱的經濟。此舉令澳元進一步走低。但在澳大利亞之外，美國和中國的諸多力量可能成爲令澳元進一步走軟的主要推動力。

The world's fifth-most traded currency and a proxy for China's commodities appetite remains high historically, at 89 U.S. cents per Australian dollar, versus US$1.05 a year ago. That's hampering Australia's economy, especially manufacturing and tourism, which otherwise could take up slack from a fading mining boom as China slows.

澳元交易量在世界上排第五位，它的走勢反映出中國對大宗商品的需求。目前澳元仍處於歷史高點，澳元兌美元爲0.89美元，相比之下一年前爲1.05美元。這將拖累澳大利亞的經濟，特別是製造業和旅遊業。在中國經濟增長放緩造成礦業繁榮消退之際，這兩個行業原本可以彌補礦業下滑所造成的影響。

The Australian dollar has fallen 6% against its U.S. counterpart since October. That includes a dive after Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Glenn Stevens, until recently a defender of free-floating exchange rates, said he was 'open minded' about the idea of intervention.

自去年10月以來，澳元兌美元累計下跌了6%。其中包括澳大利亞央行行長史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)發表了他對干預匯市持開放態度的言論後澳元的走低。史蒂文斯直到最近之前一直是自由浮動匯率的捍衛者。

Larger forces are a wind at the bank's back. A central-bank index of Australia's major commodity exports dropped to the lowest level in more than 31/2 years in December. The index has a tight correlation with the Aussie's performance against the greenback. With Chinese manufacturing losing momentum in December, there are few signs there will be a substantial turnaround in prices for Australia's rocks and energy.

諸多更大的力量對澳大利亞央行有利。去年12月，一個衡量澳大利亞主要大宗商品出口情況的央行指數跌至三年半以來的最低水平。該指數與澳元兌美元匯率具有密切相關性。隨着去年12月中國的製造業失去後勁，幾乎沒有跡象顯示澳大利亞礦石和能源價格將大幅回升。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve's shrinking bond-buying program comes as Australian policy rates are near historic lows. Yet the spread between U.S. and Australian bond yields hasn't shrunk substantially.

與此同時，美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve，簡稱：美聯儲)縮減購債計劃恰逢澳大利亞的政策利率接近歷史低點之際。然而，美國與澳大利亞債券收益率之間的差距卻一直沒有明顯收窄。

Two-year Australian bonds still yield 2.31 percentage points more than their U.S. counterpart, only slightly less than 2.43 points a year ago. With the central banks moving in opposite directions, that spread should narrow and make the Aussie less attractive.

兩年期澳大利亞債券收益率仍比美國債券高2.31個百分點，較一年前的2.43個百分點僅有略微收窄。隨着各國央行朝着不同的方向用力，澳大利亞與美國債券收益率之間的差距應該會收窄，澳元的吸引力會減弱。

Mr. Stevens has labeled a level above US$0.90 unsustainable for the economy. That seems to be something of a line in the sand. Even a slight bump could prompt intervention. But as Japan discovered, a more effective path to a weaker currency is loosening monetary policy more broadly. With the central bank's policy rate at 2.5%, Australia has room to cut but is worried about pumping up a stubbornly bubbly housing market.

史蒂文斯稱，澳元兌0.90美元以上是經濟無法維持的。這似乎是明確表明了立場。即便是小幅的波動也可能會促使央行採取干預措施。但正如日本所發現的，令匯率走低的一條更加有效的途徑是在更大範圍內放鬆貨幣政策。在央行將政策利率設定爲2.5%的情況下，澳大利亞有降息的空間，但它擔心這樣做可能會進一步推高高度泡沫化的樓市。

For now, Australia can take it easy. A slowing China and a tapering Fed will do the hard work of sending its currency in the direction it wants.

目前爲止，澳大利亞可以稍安勿躁。中國經濟的不斷放緩，加上美聯儲縮減購債規模，這些將成爲使澳元走上澳大利亞所希望的方向的主要力量。