经济广角:中国反制美国制裁 两国贸易关系恶化

China, US Ratchet Up Dispute Over Certain Goods
China said Sunday that it would review complaints about U.S. exporters of chicken and auto products following Washington's decision to impose punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports, raising tensions in a trade dispute ahead of two planned meetings between the countries' leaders.

While some observers here say that overall, ties between China and the U.S. should remain unharmed, the measures add to worries about trade protectionism amid rising unemployment around the world.

The Obama administration said Friday that it would slap stiff tariffs on Chinese-made tires for the next three years. Citing a jump in Chinese imports, the administration invoked a rule China agreed to when it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The effect, experts say, is likely to wipe out Chinese tire exports to the U.S. during this period.

China responded quickly. Sunday, the Ministry of Commerce said it was starting so-called antidumping procedures against U.S. exporters into China of chicken and auto products. It said it had received complaints from local producers that the U.S. products were being dumped in China at below-market prices. The ministry denied that the move was protectionism.

'China has consistently opposed trade protectionism, and the country's actions since the financial crisis have reflected this stance,' a statement on the ministry's Web site said. 'China is willing to continue to act in accordance with countries around the world to push forward the world's economic recovery.'

The announcement doesn't mean sanctions will be invoked. It didn't specify the timing or the exact kinds of goods involved.

The choice of the two export categories -- chicken and auto products -- could also be a sign that China's response is likely to be measured. Both have been part of a battle between China and the U.S. in which both sides have already instituted trade-restricting measures, so the new actions may not measurably hurt exporters. China has already effectively blocked U.S. exports of poultry products in retaliation for a similar U.S. block of Chinese poultry. And earlier this year, China raised tariffs on imported auto parts.

Still, Sunday's actions were a clear sign of Chinese displeasure. Earlier over the weekend, the government-run Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that the U.S. sanctions were political pandering by a president trying to secure union votes in his battle for a health-care overhaul. 'It is a huge regret that crucial China-U.S. trade relations are once again disrupted by [domestic] political disputes,' the agency said.

People close to the government said China will have to slap tariffs on the U.S. goods. Mei Xinyu, a researcher at a think tank that reports to China's Ministry of Commerce, said China has historically avoided taking countermeasures in trade disputes but that it shouldn't be shy now.

'China should bring into effect retaliatory measures this time, such as high punitive import tariffs on American imports,' Mr. Mei said. He also said China should avoid taking the issue to the WTO because such complaints take years to resolve. 'America will achieve its goals if China tries to resolve this dispute through the WTO,' he said.

Foreign business leaders in China said the U.S. decision almost invited Chinese retaliation. James Zimmerman, a Beijing-based American lawyer, said politics and trade can't be separated but that 'overt political posturing welcomes a like response. We can expect the tit-for-tat political posturing going forward and in a way that may be damaging to U.S. commercial interests.'

Foreign businesses operating in China have argued, however, that China is itself engaging in protectionism. The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China recently released a catalog of business complaints chronicling a deteriorating atmosphere for foreign enterprises operating in China. The country's recent stimulus package, for example, in some cases favored domestic manufacturers, the EU Chamber said.

The dispute isn't likely to prevent Chinese President Hu Jintao from meeting U.S. President Barack Obama later this month at an economic summit in Pittsburgh. Mr. Obama is set to visit China in mid-November to discuss the economy as well as climate change and controlling North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Chinese officials 'are definitely going to do something to express their dissatisfaction, but it won't be serious,' said Yan Xuetong, director of Tsinghua University's Institute of International Studies. 'The two sides need each other.'

中国周日表示，将启动针对美国向中国出口肉鸡和汽车产品的审查。此前，美国政府决定对从中国进口的轮胎征收惩罚性关税。中国此举在两国领导人拟进行的两次会谈前加剧了中美间一场贸易纠纷的紧张气氛。

尽管中国的一些观察人士说，总体而言，中美关系并未受到损害，但这些措施令人进一步担忧，由于世界各国失业率的上升，贸易保护主义可能愈演愈烈。

奥巴马政府上周五称，将在未来三年中对中国产轮胎征收惩罚性关税。美国政府称，由于从中国进口的轮胎大幅增加，决定引用中国在2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时同意的一项规则。专家说，此举可能会扼杀中国在此期间对美国的轮胎出口。

中国方面迅速做出了反应。周日，商务部表示将对美国向中国出口的肉鸡和汽车产品展开所谓的反倾销审查。商务部称，近期，商务部收到国内产业申请，反映上述产品以低于市场的价格在中国境内倾销。商务部否认此举属于保护主义。

商务部网站的声明中称，中国一贯坚决反对贸易保护主义。金融危机以来，中国以自己的实际行动证明了这一点。中国愿继续与世界各国共同行动，推动世界经济尽快复苏。

这份声明并不意味着将会实施制裁。声明也未说明具体的时间或所涉及商品的具体类别。

选择肉鸡和汽车产品这两个出口类别也显示，中国的反应预计会是有节制的。这两个领域一直是中美争执的内容之一，双方已经采取了贸易限制措施，因此新的行动对出口商的损害可能不会很大。由于美国封锁了中国家禽的对美出口，作为报复，中国实际上也已封锁了美国家禽的对华出口。今年初，中国提高了对进口汽车轮胎的关税。

不过，周日的措施明显显示出中国的不满。周末早些时候，国营媒体新华社在评论中说，美国的制裁是奥巴马玩弄的政治花招，旨在换取工会对政府医疗改革计划的支持。文章中说，贸易问题再次成为美国内政治角力的牺牲品，实在令世人遗憾。

与政府关系密切的人士说，中国将被迫对美国产品征收惩罚性关税。商务部下属一家研究机构的研究员梅新育说，中国过去一直不愿在贸易纠纷中采取反制措施，但这次不应该退缩了。

梅新育说，中国这次应该采取相当于报复措施的行动，如对从美国进口的产品征收惩罚性关税。他还说，中国应避免将问题诉诸WTO，因为此类投诉需要数年时间才能解决。他说，如果中国希望通过WTO解决纠纷，美国就实现了它的目的。

驻中国的外国商界领袖说，美国的决定几乎是在邀请中国采取报复行动。在北京工作的美国律师吉莫曼(James Zimmerman)说，政治和贸易无法分开，但明显的政治姿态会招致同样的反应。我们可以预料，这种一报还一报的政治做法将会延续下去，并可能损害美国的商业利益。

不过，在中国经营的外国企业表示，中国本身也在采取保护主义。中国欧盟商会(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)最近就发表了一份企业投诉，列举了在华外企不断恶化的经营环境。欧盟商会举例说，中国最近推出的经济刺激方案有时就倾向于国内制造商。

这次纠纷不太可能阻止中国国家主席胡锦涛本月晚些时候在匹兹堡的经济峰会上同奥巴马会谈。奥巴马定于11月中旬访问中国，讨论经济、气候变化以及控制朝鲜核野心的问题。

清华大学国际问题研究所所长阎学通说，中国官员一定会以某种方式表达他们的不满，但这不会带来严重后果。双方谁也离不开对方。