中国需求疲软致铁矿石价格跌至新低
The price of iron ore has declined to $63 a tonne for the first time in five and a half years, hit hard by concerns about weak Chinese demand for the steelmaking ingredient.
受投资者对中国铁矿石需求疲软的担忧情绪的强烈打击，这种炼钢原料的价格五年半来首次跌至每吨63美元。Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery into China fell $2.60 to $63.30 a tonne yesterday, according to the Steel Index. The last time it traded this low was in May 2009.
钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)数据显示，对华即时交割的基准澳大利亚铁矿石的价格昨天下跌2.60美元，至每吨63.30美元。该基准铁矿石的价格上次处于如此低位还是在2009年5月。
China is the world’s biggest producer of steel and the biggest consumer of seaborne iron ore, which is crucial for the profitability of large mining groups, including Vale of Brazil, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, as well as Japanese trading companies such as Mitsui & Co.
中国是全球最大的钢材生产国，也是全球最大的海运铁矿石消费国。海运铁矿石对巴西淡水河谷(Vale)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等大型矿企以及三井物产(Mitsui & Co)等日本贸易企业的盈利水平有着至关重要的影响。
Last year, the price of the raw material halved as a surge in supply overwhelmed demand growth. Analysts said a build-up of steel inventories in China, caused by overproduction in December, had affected demand for iron ore.
去年，由于供应量的激增大大超过了需求的增长，这种原料的价格跌去了一半。分析师表示，12月份的生产过剩导致中国钢材库存积压，影响了对铁矿石的需求。“While some mills are turning off production, old inventories still need to clear,” said Melinda Moore, analyst at Standard Bank, who reckons demand for steel has effectively fallen 15-20 per cent from December’s levels.
标准银行(Standard Bank)分析师梅琳达•穆尔(Melinda Moore)表示：“尽管部分钢厂正在采取停产措施，但原有的库存仍有待消化。”她估计，与12月份的水平相比，钢材需求实际上已下降15%到20%。Other factors weighing on Chinese steel demand include the forthcoming new year holiday, the decision to scrap a key export rebate and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. A private survey showed growth has stalled for a second straight month in January.
其他压低中国钢材需求的因素包括即将到来的春节假期、一项重要出口退税措施的取消决定、以及制造业增长的放缓。一项私人调查显示，1月份，中国钢材需求增长连续第二个月出现停滞。With the domestic construction market in the doldrums, many Chinese steel mills have turned to the export market for buyers. However, the Chinese government recently scrapped an export tax rebate on boron-added steel products, and analysts are unsure whether moves to offer chrome-alloyed steels as an alternative will be successful.
由于国内建筑市场低迷，许多中国钢厂已转向出口市场寻找买家。然而，中国政府最近取消了对含硼钢材的出口退税，同时分析师无法确定钢厂改为出口铬合金钢享受退税的举措能否成功。The country’s imports of seaborne iron ore rose almost 14 per cent last year to a record 932.5m tonnes, with shipments from Australia accounting for 58.5 per cent of the total, up from 50.9 per cent in 2013, recent government data showed.
近期的政府数据显示，去年中国海运铁矿石进口量攀升了将近14%，达到创纪录的9.325亿吨。其中，来自澳大利亚的进口占总量的58.5%，高于2013年的50.9%。Australian producers BHP and Rio had been ramping up production, in an effort to win market share and drive high-cost producers out of business. They are reckoned to have knocked about 125m tonnes of China and ex-China supply out of the market last year.
为了扩大市场份额、将高成本生产商挤出市场，澳大利亚铁矿石生产商必和必拓和力拓一直在提高产量。据估计，去年它们已把大约1.25亿吨的中国及中国以外的供应量挤出了市场。On Friday, Goldman Sachs lowered its iron ore forecasts to $66 this year, $61 next year and $60 in 2017 and 2018, saying the adjustment required to balance the market was “far from complete”.
上周五，高盛(Goldman Sachs)下调了对铁矿石价格的预期，对今年的预期下调至每吨66美元，对明年的预期下调至每吨61美元，对2017年和2018年的预期则下调至每吨60美元。高盛表示，市场达到供需平衡所需的调整“远未完成”。
