世界經濟: 油價暴跌背後的簡單邏輯

The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, appears to be in the early stages of its latest downturn.

起伏不定的石油行業，目前似乎正處於最新一輪頹勢的早期階段。

The price of oil has plunged more than 55 percent to under $50 a barrel since June. That is the lowest price since the depths of the 2009 recession.

去年6月以來，原油價格暴跌了逾55％，降至每桶50美元（約合310元人民幣）。這是自2009年經濟衰退的低谷期以來油價的最低點。

Oil analysts predict that the price could fall below $40 before beginning to rebound. But even optimists say $70 a barrel by the end of the year is highly doubtful.

石油業分析師紛紛預測，油價可能會跌破每桶40美元，然後反彈。不過，就連持樂觀態度的人士也表示，年底之前很可能無法達到每桶70美元的價格。

Why is the price of oil dropping so fast? Why now?

為何油價會下降得如此之快？為何是現在？

This a complicated question, but it boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.

這是個複雜的問題，但歸根結底還是關於供需關係的簡單經濟學原理。

United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last six years, pushing out oil imports that need to find another home. Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once found a home in the United States is suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop prices.

過去六年裏，美國的石油產量幾乎翻了一倍，於是原本出口美國的部分石油需要另尋出路。曾向美國出口的沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亞和阿爾及利亞的原油，突然開始爭奪亞洲市場，使得出產國被迫降價。

On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are weakening and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for fuel is lagging a bit.

從需求方面來看，歐洲和發展中國家的經濟正在走弱，而機動車的能效也正在提高。因此，對燃料的需求稍顯落後。

Who benefits from the price drop?

誰能從油價下跌中受益？

Any motorist can tell you gasoline prices have dropped more than a dollar a gallon in recent months. Diesel, heating oil and natural gas prices have also fallen sharply. All together, they represent the equivalent of a sizable tax cut — putting $1,000 or more in the pockets of the average family over the next year. Europeans and consumers around the world will enjoy similar benefits.

每個開機動車的人都可以告訴你，最近幾個月，每加侖汽油的價格下跌了1美元多（約合每升1.64元）。柴油、取暖油和天然氣的價格也出現大幅下滑。總體來看，這相當於一次規模不小的減税——在接下來的一年時間裏，每個美國普通家庭的荷包裏都會多出至少1000美元。歐洲和世界各地的消費者也將享受到類似的好處。

Who loses?

誰將蒙受損失？

For starters, oil-producing countries and states. Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Ecuador, Brazil and Russia are just a few petrostates that will suffer economic and perhaps even political turbulence. Persian Gulf states are likely to invest less money around the world, and may cut aid to countries like Egypt.

首先是出產石油的國家和州。將面臨經濟——或許還有政治——動盪的石油國家，遠遠不止委內瑞拉、伊朗、尼日利亞、厄瓜多爾、巴西和俄羅斯。海灣國家很可能會縮小在世界各地的投資規模，或許還會削減對埃及等國的援助。

In the United States, Alaska, North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana will face economic challenges. Some smaller oil companies that are heavily in debt may go out of business, pressuring some banks that lend to them.

在美國，阿拉斯加、北達科他、得克薩斯、俄克拉荷馬和路易斯安那將面臨經濟挑戰。一些負債累累的規模較小的石油公司可能會倒閉，從而讓貸款給它們的銀行承壓。

What happened to OPEC?

石油輸出國組織遇到了什麼情況？

The price of oil, as with other commodities, goes up and down. And in the past the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, known as OPEC, has frequently cut production to firm up prices. Iran, Venezuela and Algeria are pressing the cartel to do so again, but Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other gulf allies are refusing to cut. At the same time, Iraq is actually pumping more.

就像其他大宗商品一樣，石油的價格有升也有降。在過去，石油輸出國組織（Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries，簡稱歐佩克）經常削減原油產量來穩定價格。伊朗、委內瑞拉和阿爾及利亞正在敦促該組織如法炮製，但沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合酋長國及美國在海灣地區的其他盟國拒絕減產。與此同時，伊拉克實際上正在增加產量。

Saudi officials have said that if they cut production and prices go up, they will lose market share and merely benefit their competitors.

沙特官員表示，如果他們減產讓油價回升，沙特就會失去市場份額，只能令競爭對手獲益。

They say they are willing to see oil prices go much lower, but some oil analysts think they are merely bluffing.

他們聲稱自己樂見油價繼續深跌，但一些石油業分析師認為，這只是在虛張聲勢。

Is there a conspiracy to bring the price of oil down?

存在壓低油價的陰謀嗎？

There are a number of conspiracy theories floating around. Even some oil executives are quietly noting that the Saudis want to hurt Russia and Iran, and so does the United States — motivation enough for the two oil-producing nations to force down prices. Dropping oil prices in the 1980s did help bring down the Soviet Union, after all.

當下陰謀論滿天飛。就連一些石油公司高管都在私下裏指出，沙特想要損害俄羅斯和伊朗的利益，美國也是如此——這樣的理由足以讓兩個石油生產大國去壓低油價。畢竟，20世紀80年代油價的不斷下跌確實在一定程度上促成了蘇聯的解體。

But there is no evidence to support the conspiracy theories, and Saudi Arabia and the United States rarely coordinate smoothly.

然而，並沒有證據來支持這些陰謀論，而且沙特阿拉伯和美國很少能夠順暢地相互配合。

And the Obama administration is hardly in a position to coordinate the drilling of hundreds of oil companies seeking profits and answering to their shareholders.

除此之外，考慮到石油公司需追逐利潤並要對股東負責，奧巴馬政府實在難以協調數以百計的油企的石油開採工作。

When are oil prices likely to recover?

油價何時可能反彈？

Not anytime soon. Oil production is still increasing in the United States and some other countries. Many Wall Street banks are predicting that the oil price could fall as low as $40 a barrel in the coming months.

不會很快。美國及其他一些國家的石油產量仍在增加。很多華爾街投行預測，油價在未來幾個月興許會跌至每桶40美元。

But production is likely to begin declining in the second half of the year, and then crude prices will also begin to recover. The history of oil is a history of booms and busts followed by more of the same.

不過，原油產量可能會在下半年開始減少，價格到時候也會開始反彈。在石油的發展史中，起起落落總是反覆上演。