舊經濟模式不適用於21世紀——Jeffrey Sachs
For a long time the debate between free-market and Keynesian economics has raged. But in the 21st century, we need a whole new way of considering the economy.
Two schools of thought tend to dominate today's economic debates. According to free-market economists, governments should cut taxes, reduce regulations, reform labour laws, and then get out of the way to let consumers consume and producers create jobs.
這兩個流派的思想在今天的經濟爭論中佔據了主要地位。若依自由市場經濟學家，政府應當縮減税收，減少限制，改革勞動法，然後應該找出讓消費者消費和生產者創造工作崗位的方式。According to Keynesian economics, governments should boost total demand through quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus.
若依凱恩斯主義經濟學家，政府應該通過定量寬鬆的貨幣政策和財政刺激政策刺激總需求。
Yet neither approach is delivering good results. We need a new 'sustainable development economics', with governments promoting new types of investments.
然而沒有一個方法能帶來好結果。我們需要一個新的“可持續發展經濟模式” ，政府要促進新的投資類型。Free-market economics leads to great outcomes for the rich, but pretty miserable outcomes for everyone else. Governments in the United States and parts of Europe are cutting back on social spending, job creation, infrastructure investment, and job training because the rich bosses who pay for politicians' election campaigns are doing very well for themselves, even as the societies around them are crumbling.
自由市場經濟導致了富人收穫了巨量財富，其他人則只獲得相當少一部分財富。美國和部分歐洲政府正消減社會開支，工作崗位創造，基礎設施投資和職業培訓——因為這些為政客選舉投資的富裕老闆們對自己從來都是最好的，即使是在他們周圍的社會正在崩潰的情況下。Yet Keynesian solutions — easy money and large budget deficits — have also fallen far short of their promised results. Many governments, including Australia, tried stimulus spending after the 2008 financial crisis. After all, most politicians love to spend money they don't have.
至於凱恩斯主義的解決方案，由於召之即來的錢和巨大的預算赤字，其效果遠遠低於其承諾的。許多政府，包括澳大利亞，在2008年金融危機後嘗試着刺激消費。畢竟，大多數政治家是樂於花他們未持有的錢的。Yet the short-term boost failed in two big ways. First, governments' debt soared and their credit ratings plummeted. Even the US lost its AAA standing. Second, the private sector did not respond by increasing business investment and hiring enough new workers. Instead, companies hoarded vast cash reserves, mainly in tax-free offshore accounts.
然而短期的經濟刺激失敗在兩個大的方面。首先，政府高企的債務和自由落體的信用評級。即使是美國也喪失了AAA的地位。其次，私營部門並不需要為增加商業投資和僱傭足夠新員工上負責。與之相對，公司卻積聚了巨量的資金。大多數都放在免税的海外賬户上。The problem with both free-market and Keynesian economics is that they misunderstand the nature of modern investment. Both schools believe that investment is led by the private sector, either because taxes and regulations are low (in the free-market model) or because aggregate demand is high (in the Keynesian model).
自由市場經濟和凱恩斯經濟都擁有一個問題，那就是它們曲解了現代投資的性質。兩個流派都認為投資由私營部門驅動。一個因為低税收和低限制而這麼認為（自由市場），一個因為巨大總需求而這麼認為（凱恩斯經濟）。Yet private-sector investment today depends on investment by the public sector. Our age is defined by this complementarity. Unless the public sector invests, and invests wisely, the private sector will continue to hoard its funds or return them to shareholders in the forms of dividends or buybacks.
然而在今天私營部門的投資是取決於公共部門的投資的。我們的社會是通過這種互補性來定義的。除非公共部門明智的投資，否則這些私營部門會繼續攬錢或者以股息、回購的方式回饋他們的股東。The key is to reflect on six kinds of capital goods: business capital; infrastructure; human capital; intellectual capital; natural capital; and social capital. All of these are productive, but each has a distinctive role.
關鍵在於六種生產資料：商業資本；基礎設施；人力資本；智力資本；自然資本；社會資本。所有這些資本都是生產性的，但是每一個都扮演着特別的角色。Business capital includes private companies' factories, machines, transport equipment, and information systems. Infrastructure includes roads, railways, power and water systems, fibre optics, pipelines, and airports and seaports. Human capital is the education, skills, and health of the workforce. Intellectual capital includes society's core scientific and technological know-how. Natural capital is the ecosystems and primary resources that support agriculture, health, and cities. And social capital is the communal trust that makes efficient trade, finance, and governance possible.
商業資本包括私人工廠，機器，運輸設備和通信設備。基礎投資包括道路，鐵路，能源，水資源，光導纖維，管道，機場河海港。人力資本則是教育，技能和勞動力的健康。智力資本包括社會核心科學和技術知識。自然資本則是提供農業，健康和城市的生態系統和重要資源。社會資本則是能使交易有效貿易、財政及政府存在可能的公民間的互信。These six forms of capital work in a complementary way. Business investment without infrastructure and human capital cannot be profitable. Nor can financial markets work if social capital (trust) is depleted. Without natural capital (including a safe climate, productive soils, available water, and protection against flooding), the other kinds of capital are easily lost. And without universal access to public investments in human capital, societies will succumb to extreme inequalities of income and wealth.
這六種形勢的資本運作在一個互補的方式下。商業資本沒有基礎設施和人力資本就不能盈利。沒有一個資本市場能夠社會運行在社會資本耗盡的情況下。沒有自然資本（包括安全的氣候，高產的土地，可用的水資源和防範洪水的保護措施），其他種類的資本很容易就消失了。沒有在人力資本中普遍的公共投資，社會將會屈服在收入和財富的極端不平等中。Governments need long-term investment strategies and ways to pay for them.
政府需要長遠的投資策略和方式Investment used to be a far simpler matter. The key to development was basic education, a network of roads and power, a functioning port, and access to world markets. Today, however, basic public education is no longer enough; workers need highly specialised skills that come through vocational training, advanced degrees, and apprenticeship programs that combine public and private funding. Transport must be smarter than mere government road building; power grids must reflect the urgent need for low-carbon electricity; and governments everywhere must invest in new kinds of intellectual capital to solve unprecedented problems of public health, climate change, environmental degradation, information systems management, and more.
投資是一件很簡單的事。關鍵在於發展基礎教育，路網，電力網和港口並進入世界市場。然而今天基礎公共教育已不再足以應付（其發展）；工人們需要通過職業培訓，高級學位和那些綜合了公共與私人基金的學徒計劃來造就更強的專業技能；電網必須反映低碳電力的迫切需求；並且無論哪的政府都必須投資新類型的智力資本以解決前所未有的公共健康問題、氣候改變問題、環境退化問題和信息性管理等問題。Yet in most countries, governments are not leading, guiding, or even sharing in the investment process. They are cutting back. Free-market ideologues claim that governments are incapable of productive investment. Nor do Keynesians think through the kinds of public investments that are needed; for them, spending is spending. The result is a public-sector vacuum and a dearth of public investments, which in turn holds back necessary private-sector investment.
然而在大多數國家，政府並未領導、指引甚至分享投資過程。他們僅僅在削減。自由市場擁護者聲稱政府對生產性投資無能為力。凱恩斯經濟支持者也不想通過這種必要的公共投資，對他們來説，消費就是支出。最終結果就是公共部門的高高掛起和公共投資的衰亡，這反過來又阻礙了必要的私人投資。Governments need long-term investment strategies and ways to pay for them. They need to understand much better how to prioritise road, rail, power, and port investments; how to make investments environmentally sustainable by moving to a low-carbon energy system; how to train young workers for decent jobs, not only low-wage service-sector employment; and how to build social capital, in an age when there is little trust and considerable corruption.
政府需要長遠的投資策略和方式。他們需要更深刻地明白如何把道路、鐵路、電力和港口的投資放在首位；如何通過開發低碳能源系統以使環境方面的投資可持續；如何培養年輕工作者體面地工作而不僅僅只是當低工資的服務業人員；以及如何在一個缺乏信任和擁有相當大腐敗的時代裏建立社會資本。In short, governments need to learn to think ahead. This, too, runs counter to the economic mainstream. Free-market ideologues don't want governments to think at all; and Keynesians want governments to think only about the short run, because they take to an extreme John Maynard Keynes' famous quip, "In the long run we are all dead."
總而言之，政府應該學會長遠考慮。儘管這違背了我們的經濟主流。自由市場擁護者們可是一點也不希望政府能想的長遠；凱恩斯主義者只希望政府思考短期內的問題——因為他們篤信凱恩斯的極端名言“長期來看，我們都死了。”Here's a thought that is anathema in Washington, DC, but worthy of reflection. The world's fastest growing economy, China, relies on five-year plans for public investment, which is managed by the National Development and Reform Commission. The US has no such institution, or indeed any agency that looks systematically at public-investment strategies. But all countries now need more than five-year plans; they need 20-year, generation-long strategies to build the skills, infrastructure, and low-carbon economy of the twenty-first century.
華盛頓有一種可憎的思想，卻值得我們認真反思。世界上快速增長的經濟體，中國，與公共投資休慼相關的五年計劃是由國家發改委管理的。美國沒有這種機構，或者實際上沒有任何有關公共投資策略的機構。但是所有國家如今都需要比五年計劃詳細得多的發展計劃；他們需要的是二十年，超過一代人的發展計劃來建立健全技術工，基礎設施以及二十一世紀的低碳經濟。The G20 recently took a small step in the right direction, by placing new emphasis on increased infrastructure investment as a shared responsibility of both the public and private sectors. We need much more of this kind of thinking in the year ahead, as governments negotiate new global agreements on financing for sustainable development (in Addis Ababa in July 2015); Sustainable Development Goals (at the United Nations in September 2015), and climate change (in Paris in December 2015).
最近的G20峯會開始強調把增加基礎設施投資作為公共和私營部門的共有責任——終於朝正確的方向上邁出了一小步。我們在未來需要更多的這類思考，比如在15年7月亞的斯亞貝巴的的政府會議將商討財政和可持續發展協定；可持續發展目標會議（15年9月）和氣候變化會議（15年12月）These agreements promise to shape humanity's future for the better. If they are to succeed, the new age of sustainable development should give rise to a new economics of sustainable development as well.
這些協定承諾要給人類塑造一個更好的未來。如果他們成功，可持續發展的新時代亦會助力經濟上的可持續發展。
