国际油价跌至去年11月以来最低水平

Brent crude slid below $50 a barrel to close at its lowest level since November as confidence in Opec’s ability to overpower a resurgent US shale industry and ease a global oil surplus faded.

由于市场对欧佩克(Opec)有能力压制美国页岩产业复苏及缓解全球石油过剩的信心减弱，布伦特原油(Brent crude)已跌至每桶不到50美元，创下去年11月以来的最低水平。

The international oil benchmark dropped by 4.8 per cent on Thursday to settle at $48.38 a barrel in London. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, also fell by 4.8 per cent to settle at $45.52 a barrel.

周四，伦敦布伦特原油下跌了4.8%，收于每桶48.38美元。美国基准原油价格——西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)也下跌了4.8%，收于每桶45.52美元。

Both benchmarks have erased all of the gains made since some of the world’s biggest producers agreed to curb supplies in an effort to end the worst oil crash in a generation.

此前，自部分全球最大产油国同意通过限制供应来结束这场一代人时间里最严重的油价崩盘以来，原油价格出现了回升，但下跌后的两大基准价格显示，所有涨幅已化为乌有。

“Sentiment at the moment is very negative,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Wealth Management.

瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)的大宗商品分析师乔瓦尼?斯陶诺沃(Giovanni Staunovo)称：“目前的情绪非常消极。”

Oil market participants have been rapidly losing faith in the ability of Opec and rival producers outside the cartel, such as Russia, to shrink the excess crude inventories that have kept a ceiling on prices following the three-year downturn.

对于欧佩克及俄罗斯等非欧佩克产油国减少过剩原油库存的能力，石油市场参与者正快速失去信心。正是这些过剩原油库存使油价在经历3年低迷之后无法取得突破。

Not only did higher prices at the start of the year reinvigorate the US shale industry, Opec producers have been exporting at levels that were higher than expected despite the supply cut deal.

不仅是今年年初的油价上涨重振了美国页岩行业，而且欧佩克产油国还一直以高于预期的水平出口——尽管有削减供应的协议。

This has led hedge funds that bet on a higher oil price to liquidate their positions given the weakness.

这已经导致押注油价上涨的对冲基金鉴于油价疲软而平仓。

Oil’s drop on Thursday came amid a wide retreat in commodities. Gold fell more than 1 per cent to $1,225.20 a troy ounce, the lowest since mid-March, while silver touched its lowest level since the start of the year, down more than 1 per cent to $16.17.

周四的油价下跌正值大宗商品价格普遍出现回落。金价下跌逾1%，至每金衡盎司1225.20美元，为3月中旬以来最低，而银价也触及今年初以来最低水平，下跌逾1%，至16.17美元。

Meanwhile, copper fell 1.6 per cent to $5,504 a tonne. Corn was down by 2.1 per cent to $3.58? a bushel.

与此同时，铜价下跌1.6%，至每吨5504美元。玉米价格下跌了2.1%，至每蒲式耳3.5850美元。

Oil investors and analysts have said that while Opec countries have hit their target of cutting more than 1.2m barrels a day, data suggest the group’s exports have not declined by a similar margin.

石油投资者和分析师曾表示，虽然欧佩克国家达到了日产量减少逾120万桶的目标，但数据显示，欧佩克原油出口并未出现类似幅度的下降。

Opec and non-Opec ministers are set to meet again at the end of this month in Vienna. Reports suggesting a lack of agreement helped send prices lower on Thursday, but participants are ultimately expected to extend the supply cut beyond an initial six-month period that runs until the end of June.

欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国部长级官员将于本月底在维也纳再次会晤。报道显示，缺乏共识助长了周四的油价下跌，但预计与会国最终会把减产期限延长。原本商定的减产期为6个月，到今年6月底止。

Even though global energy agencies still believe supply and demand will come into balance in the second half of this year, those crude inventories whose size can be easily tracked remain stubbornly high. The market is focused on the US stockpiles even if there are strong declines elsewhere, analysts say.

虽然全球能源机构依然认为，石油供需将在今年下半年达到平衡，但那些规模很容易被追踪到的原油库存仍居高不下。分析师表示，即便其它地区的库存出现大幅下降，但市场还是专注于美国的库存。

“Hopes of US stock rebalancing are being thrown into doubt,” said Tamas Varga at London-based oil broker PVM.

伦敦石油经纪商PVM的塔马斯?瓦尔加(Tamas Varga)说：“对美国库存将重新实现平衡的期待，正受到质疑。”

While US energy department data showed that crude inventories declined last week, it was by less than anticipated. US gasoline stocks also climbed as refineries processed more crude oil just as demand for the fuel weakened.

尽管美国能源部门的数据显示上周原油库存有所下降，但降幅低于预期。美国汽油库存还出现攀升——就在汽油需求减弱之际，美国炼油厂加工了更多原油。

Meanwhile, US crude oil production increased for the 11th straight week to almost 9.3m b/d, its highest level since August 2015, according to estimates by the US government.

与此同时，根据美国政府的估计，美国原油日产量连续第11周增加，达到近930万桶，是自2015年8月以来的最高水平。

“An Opec extension is baked into market expectations, but roaring shale growth makes the sizeable but too small a cut completely lose its potency,” said Jamie Webster, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Compliance may be high but the metric of success — substantial stock draws — shows the inadequacy.”

“欧佩克减产期延长已被纳入市场预期，但页岩油气产量势头凶猛的增长，让规模可观但仍嫌不足的减产完全起不到什么作用，”哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)研究员杰米?韦伯斯特(Jamie Webster)说。“即便减产可能得到严格执行，但最终目的是要实现大幅减少库存，就这一点而言，减产还不够。”