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日俄接触应受到西方欢迎

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日俄接触应受到西方欢迎

During their November meeting in Trump Tower in New York, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US president-elect Donald Trump found they had more in common than a penchant for golf.

今年11月,日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)和美国当选总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在纽约特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)会晤期间发现,除了爱好高尔夫以外,二人还有更多的共同兴趣。

The details of their discussion remain confidential but it is known that Russia was one of the main topics on the agenda.

他们讨论的具体内容仍属机密,但我们知道,俄罗斯是议程上的主要话题之一。

Mr Trump and Mr Abe share a belief that they can strike important deals with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

特朗普和安倍晋三都认为,他们可以与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)达成重要协议。

In a phone call with Mr Putin, Mr Trump suggested he was ready to repair relations with Moscow.

在与普京通电话时,特朗普表示,他准备修复与俄罗斯的关系。

Meanwhile, Mr Abe and the Russian leader have already established a rapport, meeting 15 times.

与此同时,安倍晋三和普京已建立友好关系,会晤了15次。

They are due to see each other again in Mr Abe’s home town on December 15.

他们将于12月15日在安倍的家乡再次会面。

The willingness of the leaders of the world’s first and third-largest economies to embrace a hitherto isolated Moscow could signal a dramatic geopolitical realignment and redefine Russia’s role on the global stage.

全球第一大和第三大经济体愿意接纳此前被孤立的俄罗斯,可能表明地缘政治格局出现重大调整,并可能重新定义俄罗斯在全球舞台上的角色。

Mr Abe has touted a new approach to Russia based on deeper economic ties and energy co-operation.

安倍晋三炫耀对俄罗斯采取一种新姿态,基于更深层次的经济联系和能源合作。

And, in light of China’s destabilising actions on maritime and cyber security, instability on the Korean peninsula and the need to diversify Japan’s energy mix, Tokyo sees Moscow as a responsible stakeholder in the east and a potential strategic partner.

鉴于中国在海上和网络安全方面破坏稳定的行为、朝鲜半岛的不稳定以及日本能源结构多样化的需要,日本将俄罗斯视为东方一个负责任的利益相关者和潜在的战略合作伙伴。

Russia, too, has an incentive to seek a rapprochement.

俄罗斯也有兴趣寻求这种友好关系。

Despite its boldness on the international stage, its domestic problems are severe.

尽管俄罗斯在国际舞台上大胆出牌,但其国内问题非常严重。

Corruption is rife and the economy is in dire straits.

腐败猖獗,经济深陷困境。

As an energy producer heavily reliant on exports of oil and gas, Russia is suffering from falling commodity prices and needs foreign investment.

作为一个严重依赖油气出口的能源生产国,俄罗斯受到大宗商品价格低迷的沉重打击,并且亟需外国投资。

The effects of low energy prices are exacerbated by western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea.

俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后西方实施的制裁,加剧了能源价格低迷的影响。

China has emerged as a convenient partner for Russia, and its banks are a source of energy investment.

中国已成为俄罗斯的一个便利的合作伙伴,中资银行成为能源投资的来源。

For example, this year the Yamal liquefied natural gas plant in the Russian Arctic received $12bn worth of loans from Chinese banks.

例如,今年俄罗斯北极地区的亚马尔(Yamal)半岛液化天然气工厂从中资银行获得120亿美元的贷款。

But Russia is wary of becoming too reliant on investment from China, and in September the public financial institution Japan Bank of International Cooperation entered the fray by signing a memorandum of understanding to provide $200m to the Yamal project.

但俄罗斯对于过度依赖中国投资感到担忧,今年9月,公共部门金融机构日本国际协力银行(JBIC)登场,签署了一份谅解备忘录,将为亚马尔项目提供2亿美元贷款。

While Japan contemplates a strategic alignment with Moscow as a way of reining in China, in the west Russia is viewed very differently.

尽管日本把对俄罗斯的战略调整视为一种牵制中国的方法,但西方对俄罗斯的看法非常不同。

In both the US and Europe, it is seen as a significant threat to the status quo.

在美国和欧洲,俄罗斯都被视为对现状构成的重大威胁。

For this reason, Japanese entreaties to the Kremlin have not been welcomed in Washington, with President Barack Obama urging Mr Abe not to visit Russia for a summit in May this year.

因此,日本对克里姆林宫做出的示好行为在华盛顿没有受到欢迎,美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)曾敦促安倍晋三不要参加5月在俄罗斯举行的一个峰会。

The Japanese premier went anyway.

但日本首相还是去了。

Tokyo, however, is aware that it cannot play the Russia card as part of its broader strategy towards China.

然而,日本明白,日本不能把俄罗斯牌作为其对中国整体战略的一部分。

Nor does it intend to break away from the sanctions regime operated by the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations.

日本也无意脱离七国集团(G7)实行的制裁机制。

Moreover, its selective accommodation of Russia should not be seen as a zero-sum game that will lead to it severing ties with the west.

另外,日本对俄罗斯的选择性包容不应被视为一个零和游戏,导致日本切断与西方的联系。

Rather, by taking the initiative in this way, Japan is demonstrating its willingness to be more proactive in building order and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

相反,日本正通过这种方法采取主动,显示其愿意在构建亚太地区秩序与安全方面更加积极主动。

Japan’s engagement of Russia should therefore be welcomed by the west.

因此,日本与俄罗斯的接触应受到西方的欢迎。

The advent of Mr Trump may create the strategic breathing space that Tokyo was not afforded during the Obama administration.

特朗普入主白宫可能会创建一个战略喘息空间,而在奥巴马政府期间日本未能获得这种空间。

Mr Abe is keenly aware of the potentially favourable environment for fostering Japan-Russia relations and is therefore moving with a sense of urgency.

安倍晋三清楚地知道打造日俄关系的这种潜在有利环境,因而正带着紧迫感采取行动。

A rare opportunity is opening for Japan and Russia to normalise bilateral relations and finally leave behind the legacy of the second world war.

一个罕见的机会正在出现,让日本和俄罗斯双边关系正常化,最终摆脱二战阴影。

But as Tokyo enjoys leeway to pursue a more autonomous foreign policy, it must be careful not to revert to the kind of opportunism that led to a neutrality pact with Stalin’s Soviet Union in 1941 and then to Japan’s fate being linked to that of the Axis powers in Europe.

但在日本有回旋空间推行一种更加自主的外交政策之际,它必须小心行事,不要重拾曾导致日本在1941年与斯大林(Stalin)领导的苏联签订中立协议的那种机会主义,进而把日本的命运与欧洲轴心国联系在一起。

Japan must choose the path of principled and hard-headed engagement that it followed when it normalised relations with an authoritarian South Korea in 1965 — and again in 1972, when it established diplomatic relations with totalitarian Communist China.

日本必须选择有原则的、理性而不感情用事的接触的道路,就像它在1965年与威权统治的韩国实现关系正常化,以及1972年与极权的共产党中国建立外交关系那样。

Certainly, a peace treaty between Japan and Russia, two great powers, will be of significant benefit to regional stability, as well to both countries’ economies.

日本与俄罗斯这两个大国之间的和平协议,必定会给地区稳定以及两国经济带来显著好处,

Mr Abe, though, must not forget the overarching goal of shoring up the liberal international order.

尽管安倍晋三不应忘记支持自由派全球秩序的至上目标。