美股投资总结 盛世末路

As we get closer to relegating 2014 to the history books, your local stock market guru most likely couldn’t be happier to see those books slammed shut.

2014年即将成为历史，各路股市专家也终于可以松一口气了。

It’s been one of the worst years for investment decision-making on record, almost across the board. No strategy worked consistently, save for the type of shareholder activism that only a handful of Wall Street’s billionaire titans are able to engage in.

从投资决策角度来看，2014年是有史以来最糟糕的年景之一，几乎可以说是全盘皆输。除了少数华尔街亿万富豪才玩得起的“股东积极主义”维权策略还算奏效外，没有哪种投资策略在这一年里始终灵光。

For almost everyone else, it was a year of frustration against a backdrop of better-than-average returns for the most popular index in the land.

对于更多的普通投资者而言，在标普500指数回报高于历史平均值的大背景下，2014年是充满挫折的一年。

With a bit of help from Charles Dickens, let’s take a look back at the year in which almost nothing worked:

我们不妨借用一些狄更斯的名句，来回顾下几乎各种战略都失灵的2014年：

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

这是最好的时代，这是最坏的时代……

The S&P 500’s total return of 14% this year was 40% higher than its 25-year average annual gain. Wall Street’s chief strategists spent much of the last 12 months revising their targets higher from behind. The index printed over 50 all-time record closes, with nearly all investment management professionals racing to at least pull even. A few characteristics made the U.S. stock market particularly difficult to keep up with this year.

今年，标普500指数的总回报率为14%，比该指数25年期平均年化收益率高出40％。过去12个月，华尔街的首席战略师们一直在上调其目标值。标普500指数出现了50多次创纪录的收盘，几乎所有专业投资管理人士都卯足了劲，至少要跑平该指数。但有些因素让美股投资者要获得高于基准股指的收益，在今年尤为困难。

It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…

这是智慧的时代，也是愚蠢的时代……

An odd assortment of S&P sectors led the market higher this year, with some strange bedfellows atop the leaderboard. Even if a manager had foreseen that the healthcare sector would gain 27% this year, would they have guessed that utilities would be in the No. 2 slot, with gains of 23%? Unlikely.

今年领跑美国股市的标普500公司的行业组合有些奇特，出现了一些令人意想不到的黑马。就算基金经理预见到了医疗保健行业今年将上涨27％，难道他们也能猜到公用事业行业将位列第二，上涨23％？不大可能。

Given that every single Wall Street economist had called for higher rates at the start of this year and 67 of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg concurred, the rate-sensitive utilities industry would have been the last sector a rational person would want to overweight. Bets on the financial sector were slow to pay off while wagers on “cheap” energy stocks demolished portfolio performance in the third and fourth quarters, just as they had elevated it during the first and second.

今年年初，所有华尔街经济学家都呼吁提高利率，彭博社就这个问题调查了67位经济学家的意见，他们全票赞同，有鉴于此，任何一个有理性的人都不会想要增持对利率敏感的公用事业股。把赌注押在金融股上的投资者，回报进展缓慢；而瞅准了“低价”能源股的投资者，投资组合业绩在第一和第二季度曾因此推高，却在第三和第四季度被大拖后腿，可谓“成也萧何，败也萧何”。

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity…

这是信仰的时代，也是怀疑的时代……

Rounding out the top-performing sectors of 2014 was an unlikely pair: tech (+16%) and consumer staples (+13.2%)—the most aggressive and most defensive areas of the market, running side-by-side toward the finish line, with confounded spectators struggling to concoct a narrative for this. Why would the least cyclical sectors—healthcare, staples and utilities—lead the markets in a year in which unemployment plummeted and GDP growth gained momentum? Much to the chagrin of the pundit class, sometimes there are no satisfying answers. To quote Kurt Vonnegut:

另外两个在2014年表现上佳的行业可谓风马牛不相及：高科技（上涨16％）和必需消费品（上涨13.2％）。市场上最激进与最保守的两大投资领域前后脚撞线，留下困惑的旁观者们不知该如何解释这一现象。2014年，美国失业率大幅下降，GDP呈增长势头，为何领跑市场的却是医疗保健、必需消费品、公用事业等周期性最不明显的行业？令专家们懊恼的是，有些时候就是没有令人满意的答案。美国作家库尔特o冯内古特曾写道：

Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly;

老虎要猎食，鸟儿要飞翔；

Man got to sit and wonder ‘why, why, why?’

人类想知道“这是为什么？”

Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land;

老虎要入眠，鸟儿要降落；

Man got to tell himself he understand.

人不得不告慰自己，原来如此。

If you thought that getting sector over- and under-weights correct at the outset proved difficult, switching between them throughout the year was nearly impossible. A quantitative analyst from Nomura Securities explained to Barron’s in November that “industry leadership has been reversing from month-to-month at a rate unseen in decades of stock-market history. ‘Even if you’re picking the right stocks in a sector,’ he says, ‘things are moving around so much that your performance doesn’t persist.’”

如果你认为一开始准确判断应增持和减持哪些行业的股票是件难事，在年内不断调整投资组合更是难上加难。11月，野村证券一位定量分析师向《巴伦周刊》表示：“行业领军者每个月都在变换，其变化速度之快，在股市数十年未见。即便你选对了某行业的个股，由于市场环境瞬息万变，业绩也根本无法持续。”

It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…

这是光明的季节，也是黑暗的季节……

Getting sector calls right was the least of any investor’s problems this year because, outside of the brilliance of U.S. stock gains, the lights were off around the world.

对投资者而言，今年对行业的准确判断还只是个小问题，因为除了美股，今年全球的投资好选择不多。

With both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq returning over 14% while the Dow and MidCap 400 each kicking in close to 10%, you would assume that passive investors would have an awful lot to celebrate this year. And indeed, they would have, if it weren’t for those pesky overseas stocks that did nothing but drag on the performance of any diversified portfolio.

鉴于标普500和纳斯达克指数都回升了14％以上，道琼斯和标普400中型股指数也都回升了近10％，你可能会认为今年被动投资者应该收获颇丰。确实，要不是那些恼人的海外股业绩不佳，大拖多元化投资组合的后腿，被动投资者原本应该值得庆祝。

With the majority of professional advisors (myself included) preaching the benefits of global diversification to their clients, 2014 looks more like a draw than an outright victory in the harsh light of December’s low winter sun. Consider the fact that, through last week, the MSCI World Index gained just 2% on the year, with nearly 5% drops for both the MSCI Emerging Markets index and the EAFE index of developed markets outside of the United States. Ironically, the single best-performing foreign market in the world, the Shanghai Composite of mainland Chinese equities (up 45%) is the only one that U.S. investors could not actually put their money into.

大多数专业顾问（包括我在内）都会对其客户大力鼓吹全球化多元投资组合的好处，然而，在12月看来，残酷的现实是2014年更像是个平局，而非大获全胜。事实上，上周摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数同比仅上涨了2％，而摩根士丹利资本新兴市场指数（MSCI Emerging Markets）和追踪美国以外发达国家市场的EAFE指数双双下跌了近5％。具有讽刺意味的是，除美国以外全球唯一一个表现上佳的市场——中国大陆股市的上证综指（上涨了45％），也是唯一一个美国投资者无法进入的市场。

Over 10- and 20-year stretches, geographic and asset class diversification have proven beneficial for returns and risk management. Unfortunately, you are not guaranteed to see the benefits of such a strategy during any 12-month period. In an era of 140-character writing and two-minute video, should we be surprised that investors have trouble judging the success of their portfolios over long periods?

从10年和20年的时间跨度来看，地域和资产类别的多元化已经证明对投资回报和风险管理有益。不幸的是，在12个月内，不一定能看到此种战略的好处。在如今这个140字微博消息和2分钟短视频盛行的时代，投资者不能以长期的表现来判断其投资组合的成败，又有何奇怪？

It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…

这是充满希望的春天，也是令人绝望的寒冬……

One of the most discouraging aspects of 2014 for professional investors has been the start-and-stop nature of the recovery. We coasted into January on a trend of strengthening economic reports. Within a few weeks, a nationwide snowstorm seemingly drove the economic data off the side of the road.

对专业投资者而言，2014年最令人沮丧的一点是，美国经济复苏时断时续。2014年1月，经济领域捷报频传。然而，在短短几周内，一场暴风雪席卷全美，各种经济数据似乎也因此停摆。

Market watchers were forced to digest the reality of negative 2.9% GDP for the first quarter of the year. All of a sudden, everyone’s forecasts seemed too rosy—or at least too smooth—compared to the lumpy reality. This led to a raft of second-guessing on the timing of the Fed’s eventual exit from its bond-buying stimulus program. We went from confidence to WTF? in a space of a few weeks, with all the asset class rotations and market corrections that come along with a fresh bout of uncertainty.

市场观察人士被迫接受一季度美国GDP负增长2.9％这一现实。突然间，同波诡云谲的现实相比，所有人的预测似乎都过于乐观，至少是过于平稳。这导致人们纷纷猜测美联储最终退出其债券购买计划的时机。短短几周内，我们从信心满满变成了垂头丧气，同时，伴随着不确定性的再次来袭，资产类别的交替以及市场调整也随之而来。

Despite the fact that each market rebound ended up as a V-shaped affair, each successive rally was carried out with less and less individual stock participation. Glaring divergences between winners and losers, large caps and small caps, preoccupied the commentariat for most of the spring and summer. Deflationary concerns from Europe and the Japanese technical recession further confounded analysts, as Treasury yields and inflation indicators in the U.S. were driven lower despite the improving domestic economy.

尽管每轮市场反弹最终都呈V形，每次连续的涨势中，个股的参与越来越少。今年春夏两季的绝大部分时间里，时事分析评论员们都专注于赢家与输家、大盘股和小盘股之间的明显差异。欧洲的通缩担忧以及日本的技术性衰退，使得分析师们愈加困惑，尽管美国经济正在好转，美国国库券收益率和通胀指标却双双下行。

Put succinctly, there was no way to describe or explain the crosscurrents of 2014. And I’m not convinced that the benefit of hindsight will make what happened this year any clearer years from now.

简言之，2014年种种相反的趋势无法描述和解释。我也不信，多年之后，人们凭借后见之明，能将今年发生的种种事情看得更清楚。

We had everything before us, we had nothing before us…

我们的前路应有尽有，我们的前路一无所有……

While the S&P 500 is on track to conclude another stellar year of gains, those who sought to beat the index are poised to finish with a more dubious distinction. According to Lipper, 85% of all active stock mutual fund managers had been trailing their benchmarks through the end of November. In a typical year, there are nearly twice as many managers outperforming, with only around two thirds of funds struggling to catch up. Lipper says this is the worst year for active managers relative to the market in three decades.

在即将结束的2014年，标普500指数再次实现亮眼增长，而那些本欲跑赢该指数的基金经理们，表现则没那么出色。Lipper公司称，截止11月底，85％的活跃股票型共同基金经理业绩低于标普500指数。而在正常的年份里，跑赢该指数的基金经理比例是今年的两倍，也就是说，通常只有约三分之二的基金表现不如标普500指数。Lipper公司称，这是30年来活跃基金经理相对大盘表现最差的一年。

Stock pickers encountered difficulty this year in part because of concentration at the top of the market. Just five stocks—Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and Intel— accounted for 20% of the market’s gains. If you weren’t at least equally weighted toward them, you had virtually no shot at making up for missing their enormous, index-driving gains. A majority of the market’s stocks did not perform nearly as well. According to the Leuthold Group, only 30% of S&P 1500 stocks posted gains exceeding the index itself. You’d have to go back to 1999 to see anything like this.

今年选股遇到困难，部分原因在于市场顶部高度集中。苹果、伯克希尔o哈撒韦、强生、微软和英特尔这五只股票占去了市场涨幅的20％。如果你未持有上述股票，几乎就没有机会分享这场增长盛宴，而正是这几家公司的增长推高了标普500指数。市场上大部分股票的表现要逊色得多。研究公司路佛集团称，标普1500综合指数成分股中，仅有30％的个股跑赢了该指数。上次出现这样的景象，那还是1999年的事。

Fund shareholders weren’t wasting any time reacting to this year of disappointment. Collectively, they’ve added just $35 billion to active stock-picking funds in the last 11 months, less than a quarter of the $162 billion they added in 2013, which was the first year of positive flows for the industry since 2007. This is not to say that they were sitting still. ETFs and passive index funds took in over $206 billion in net deposits through Thanksgiving, and Vanguard surpassed the $3 trillion mark sometime in late summer. Investors seem to have decided that they’d rather bet on the horses than the jockeys, after all.

在令人失望的2014年里，基金投资者们没有太多的动作。总体而言，过去11个月中，主动选股基金仅新增了350亿美元资金，还不到2013年同期新增资金（1620亿美元）的四分之一。2013年是该行业自2007年以来首次实现资金净流入。不过，这并不是说基金行业毫无作为。截止感恩节，交易所交易基金（ETFs）和被动指数型基金吸纳了2060多亿美元净存款，行业领先者先锋集团管理的基金规模在今年夏末突破了3万亿美元大关。投资者们似乎已经决定，与其把宝押在“骑手”身上，不如直接把赌注押在“赛马”身上。

We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way

我们都将直上天堂，我们都将直下地狱

The malaise was not confined to those picking individual stock winners. Through December 1, aggregate hedge fund returns trailed the market to the point of farce. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, hedge funds were up an average of 2% on the year, just barely offering the coupon rate of a risk-free 10-year Treasury note. Over 1,000 funds are on track to close down in 2014, the worst year for liquidations since 2009.

萎靡不振的不光是那些挑选个股的基金。截止12月1日，对冲基金整体回报严重落后于市场。彭博收集的数据显示，对冲基金平均同比上涨了2％，其回报率也就勉强赶上无风险10年期美国国债的票面利率。2014年将有1000多只基金倒闭，是自2009年以来破产清算最多的一年。

Among the gargantuan hedge funds that make up a majority of the industry’s assets under management, dispersion of returns shot up to notable levels. And for every big winner, like William Ackman’s Pershing Square, there was a big loser to counterbalance it, like John Paulson’s Advantage Fund. Investors choose hedge funds for their “non-correlated returns,” meaning a tendency to move opposite from the general market’s direction. They certainly got such returns this year, unfortunately.

几家大型对冲基金的资产规模，占据了该行业的大半江山。各家的回报率相差巨大。每个像威廉o阿克曼旗下潘兴广场那样的大赢家，都对应着一个像约翰o保尔森旗下优势基金那样的大输家。投资者选择对冲基金，是冲着其“非相关收益”，意即与大盘走向背道而行的趋势。今年，他们绝对是获得了“逆市”的收益，可惜是在大盘表现出色的情况下“逆市”。

Financial advisors and asset allocators who had been hoping to see some benefit this year from tactical strategies were also not spared the punishment of a capricious market. Of the top three tactical strategies in the country (Mainstay Marketfield, Good Harbor U.S. Tactical Core, F-Squared Premium AlphaSector Index), two had nearly imploded with double-digit losses while the third found itself under SEC investigation for misleading the public about its historical returns. The other giant tactical manager, Schwab’s $9 billion Windhaven Diversified Growth product, looks to end 2014 with a return close to zero. So much for tactics.

那些原本希望今年凭借战术策略获得些利益的财务顾问和资产配置人员，也在反复无常的市场中栽了跟头。全美前三位的战术策略产品中，有两款产品几乎因为高达两位数的亏损而崩盘，还有一款产品则因为向公众误报自身历史回报率而受到美国证交会调查。另一家战术产品巨头嘉信理财旗下90亿美元的Windhaven Diversified Growth产品，2014年的回报率几乎为零。战术策略原来不过如此。

In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

简言之，那个时代与当今时代极为相似，一些最哗众取宠的权威人士，要么将其捧上天，要么把其贬得一文不值。

When Dickens wrote about the French Revolution in A Tale of Two Cities, he did it with nearly a century of hindsight. Here, at the end of December, I don’t enjoy that luxury. As such, some of the trends I’ve written here are likely to remain in force for the foreseeable future, while others may have already begun to fade. As one of this period’s “noisiest authorities,” I insist only on your receiving this review with just one caveat in mind: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

狄更斯在《双城记》中描写法国大革命时，距离事件发生已有近一个世纪。而我则是在今年12月就回顾盘点这一年。因此，我在此描述的某些趋势，可能将在可预见的未来继续存在，而另一些趋势则可能已经开始减弱。作为当今时代“最哗众取宠的权威人士”之一，我只要求各位在阅读这篇评论文章时记住一点：过去的业绩并不能保证将来的表现。