年原油市場將供應充足

Burgeoning crude supply is liable to drive prices lower in 2014 after a run of years when emerging markets supported demand, as shifting dynamics continue to change the oil landscape.

在原油市場連續數年獲得新興市場需求的支撐之後，快速增加的原油供應很可能會在2014年拉低油價，油市形勢將繼續隨著這種供需動態變化而發生改變。

A historically jittery commodity, crude oil has seen calm prices for three years, and one big factor has been helping smooth the wrinkles: U.S. shale oil.

作為歷史上一種非常敏感的大宗商品，原油價格走勢已連續三年保持波瀾不驚，其背後的一大支援因素就是美國的頁岩油。

Three leading energy agencies recently said production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would increase this year, much of it from U.S. shale. Added to that is the possible return to market of millions of Middle East barrels as Iran, Iraq and Libya potentially ramp up production. All of that is set to press on prices.

三大能源機構近期表示，今年石油輸出國組織(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 簡稱：歐佩克)以外國家的原油產量將增加，其中大部分來自美國的頁岩油。除此之外，由於伊朗、伊拉克和利比亞可能會增產，中東地區的原油產量也許會增加數百萬桶。所有這些勢必會令油價承壓。

A major disruption still could push oil higher, but potential oversupply makes even that less likely. Emerging-market demand once kept supply so tight that any disruptions led to striking price moves, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

若原油供應嚴重中斷，仍可能會推高油價，但潛在的供應過剩會降低這種可能性。Saxo Bank的大宗商品策略部門主管漢森(Ole Hansen)說，新興市場的需求曾使得供應如此緊張，因而任何一次供應中斷都造成了油價的大幅波動。

That is changing. One big 2013 move for benchmark Brent crude came in August, when international intervention in Syria seemed increasingly likely. But while the price of Brent, which is traded on London's IntercontinentalExchange, did rise by 5% on the threat of U.S.-led airstrikes, it didn't come close to the 2013 high.

不過，這種局面正發生變化。2013年基準布倫特原油價格的一次大波動發生在8月份，當時國際社會干預敘利亞的可能性似乎越來越大。雖然在美國牽頭進行空襲的威脅下，在倫敦洲際交易所(IntercontinentalExchange)交易的布倫特原油價格上漲了5%，但並沒有逼近2013年高點。

'Increased production in the U.S. meant that spot prices weren't reacting quite as much as in previous geopolitical incidents,' Mr. Hansen said. There is so much supply that threats to it have less impact than previously, and 2014 will be 'the first year in a while when supply growth is going to outpace demand growth,' Mr. Hansen said.

漢森表示，美國原油增產意味著現貨油價對地緣政治事件的反應不如以往那樣大了。他說，目前的原油供應足夠多，油價受威脅的程度不如以往，2014年將是首個出現一段時間原油供應增量超過需求增量的年頭。

Next year, crude from Libya--which experienced major problems exporting its oil in 2013 because of internal disputes--could flow again. Iraqi output also is set to increase. Even Iran, shut out of global markets for years, could return if an agreement is reached to relax sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear development. All this could add as much as two million to three million barrels a day of Middle East output.

新的一年，產自利比亞的原油可能再度流入市場。受國內衝突影響，2013年利比亞的原油出口遭遇重大問題。此外，伊拉克原油產量也將增加。就連已多年被全球市場拒之門外的伊朗也有望重返市場，前提是該國與西方國家達成協議，放鬆對旨在限制該國發展核武器的制裁。所有這些可能會使中東地區原油日產量增加200萬至300萬桶。

'If that happens, that will need to be offset by some reduction of production out of Saudi [Arabia],' said Neil Gregson, a fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management who oversees $3.5 billion in natural-resources investments.

摩根大通資產管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)基金經理格雷格森(Neil Gregson)表示，若事實如此，將需要沙烏地阿拉伯削減一定的原油產量來抵消其他中東地區國家增產的影響。該公司管理著35億美元自然資源投資資金。

'In the meantime, the U.S. continues to grow its own domestic production both in oil and gas. I think, for us, it's less about where the actual price is going--it's more about how much more growth is left in North American oil sands, shale gas, shale oil,' as well as shale exploration elsewhere, he said.

格雷格森還說，“與此同時，美國國內的油氣產量將繼續增長。我認為，對我們來說，問題不在於實際油價走勢如何，關鍵是北美油砂、頁岩氣、頁岩油產量以及其他地區頁岩油氣勘探水平的增幅能有多大程度的提高。”

The price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, which is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has been kept lower by problems transporting the oil to markets. Those troubles have eased recently, but Sabine Schels, head of fundamental commodity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, doubts the problems will disappear.

受原油輸送問題影響，紐約商品交易所交易的美國基準西得克薩斯中質油價格已持續走低。雖然這些問題近來有所緩解，但美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)基本大宗商品研究部門主管舍爾斯(Sabine Schels)懷疑這些問題不會消失。

'In the next 12 to 24 months, unless any of these bottlenecks are solved, we could see WTI going down to $50 a barrel, to incentivize producers to slow down,' she said

她說，“在未來12到24個月，除非這些瓶頸得到解決，否則西得克薩斯中質油價格會跌至每桶50美元，這將促使產油國減產。”

Still, there are bulls in the market.

不過，仍有人看漲油市。

John Hummel, chief investment officer for AIS Group, a fund manager with $400 million under management, said all the new sources of global oil are expensive to extract, and he sees U.S. shale output falling by 2015.

管理著4億美元資產的基金公司AIS Group的首席投資長赫梅爾(John Hummel)稱，全球所有新原油資源的開採成本都較高。他預計到2015年美國頁岩油產量將下降。

'If global demand picks up in the developed world, and you combine that with the growth in the emerging economies, I think the market is going to get tight,' he said, which means those mighty peaks could return to the oil-price graph.

赫梅爾說，“如果發達經濟體的原油需求增加，再加上新興經濟體需求的增多，我認為市場供應將趨緊。”這意味著油價走勢圖上可能會再度出現多個高峰。

'It's going to get volatile to the upside,' he said.

他說，“油價將波動上行。”

The soaring prices of 2008, when oil reached more than $140 a barrel, will repeat, though not likely in 2014, Mr. Hummel said. The price 'is going to go higher.'

赫梅爾還指出，2008年油價飆升的局面（當時油價升破每桶140美元）將重現，但不太可能發生在2014年。他說，“油價將會上漲。”