人民幣全球使用量回落

Use of the renminbi in global payments fell last month, raising questions over how closely the currency’s path to internationalisation is tied to expected appreciation in the coming years.

人民幣在全球支付中的使用量上月有所下降，令人質疑人民幣的國際化路徑與其未來幾年升值預期之間的聯絡是否密切。

The Chinese currency broke into the top five most used payments currencies in December, according to data from clearing system Swift, overtaking the Canadian and Australian dollars.

清算系統Swift資料顯示：去年12月，人民幣超過加拿大元和澳元，進入全球使用量最大的五種貨幣行列。

But in February, renminbi use dropped to 1.8 per cent of global payments from 2.2 per cent in December, figures released yesterday showed, nudging it back down to seventh in the rankings.

但昨天公佈的資料顯示，今年2月，人民幣在全球支付中的份額從去年12月的2.2%下滑至1.8%，跌回第7名。

Swift said the fall was probably due to the seasonal effects of Chinese new year, which fell in February this year. But other recent indicators suggest a possible slowdown in renminbi take-up by investors and companies.

Swift表示，這一下降可能是因為中國春節的季節性影響，今年春節是在2月份。但近來的其他指標也表明，投資者和公司轉向人民幣的速度可能在放緩。

Issuance of offshore renminbi bonds — known as “dim sum” bonds — has fallen sharply this year, and is expected by some analysts to record the first annual contraction since the market opened in 2007.

今年以來，離岸人民幣債券（被稱為“點心”債券）的發行量大幅減少，有些分析師預計，今年可能成為自2007年該市場開放以來此類債券發行量減少的第一個年份。

So far this year, $5bn has been raised in the dim sum bond market, according to Dealogic, down from $8.6bn over the same period in 2014.

Dealogic資料顯示，今年迄今，點心債市場累計融資50億美元，低於2014年同期的86億美元。

A survey by HSBC found that fewer global companies were expecting to increase their use of renminbi in cross-border business this year than did in a similar survey a year earlier. HSBC also found that only 27 per cent of those not currently using the renminbi were planning to start using it, down from 32 per cent in 2014.

匯豐(HSBC)的一份調查報告發現，跟一年前的一次類似調查相比，今年希望在跨境業務中更多使用人民幣的全球企業有所減少。匯豐還發現，在目前尚未使用人民幣的公司中，打算開始使用人民幣的僅為27%，低於2014年的32%。

Even Chinese companies are looking elsewhere, choosing to raise new debt offshore in euros as the onset of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank reduces borrowing costs.

就連中國企業都開始轉向其他貨幣，在海外新融資時選擇發行歐元債，因為歐洲央行(ECB)開啟量化寬鬆減低了借款成本。

Increasing hesitancy about using the renminbi coincides with a rise in two-way volatility against the US dollar. This month the Chinese currency fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since 2012.

在使用人民幣的問題上更加猶豫，恰逢人民幣兌美元匯率的雙向波幅開始擴大。本月，人民幣兌美元匯率跌至2012年以來的最低水平。

Although small compared with the swings in some emerging market exchange rates, the downward moves in the renminbi over the past year have been large by historical standards.

儘管相比某些新興市場貨幣匯率，人民幣兌美元匯率的變動仍較小，但以歷史標準來衡量，過去一年內人民幣匯率的跌幅較大。

Expectations of further renminbi depreciation have been building as capital outflows have accelerated and the People’s Bank of China has acted to boost growth by cutting interest rates. Chinese equity markets soared to a seven-year high yesterday on a growing belief that further economic stimulus measures are imminent.

隨著資本外流加快以及中國央行(PBoC)以降息提振增長，人民幣將進一步貶值的預期近期在加強。昨日，中國股票市場大漲至7年高點，因為人們越來越相信，當局很快就會推出更多的經濟刺激措施。

Beijing has taken a number of steps over the past year to encourage international use of its currency, most notably with the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — a cross-border equity trading link denominated in renminbi.

在過去一年裡，北京方面採取了許多擴大人民幣國際使用量的措施，其中最引人矚目的是推出了滬港通，這是一種以人民幣計價的跨境股票交易通道安排。

China has also appointed renminbi clearing banks in a number of international financial centres, agreed new currency swap lines with other central banks and handed out renminbi investment quotas. Swift notes that while Hong Kong still dominates renminbi business outside mainland China, its share has been falling as renminbi use in other centres has grown.

中國還在很多國際金融中心指定了人民幣清算行，與其他國家央行達成了新的貨幣互換額度，併發放了人民幣投資額度。Swift指出，儘管香港仍在中國內地以外的人民幣業務中佔據主導地位，但隨著其他金融中心人民幣使用量的增加，香港所佔份額一直在下降。