中國央行增強人民幣雙向波動意欲何為

China's central bank is moving closer to widening the trading range for the tightly controlled yuan, but it still faces obstacles to carry out other reforms that have long been on the agenda.

中國央行正在為進一步擴大人民幣交易區間鋪路，但在實施金融改革其他措施方面央行仍面臨較大阻力。這些措施早已被提上日程。

In the past week, the People's Bank of China has been trying to inject more two-way volatility into yuan trading by guiding the currency lower, an effort Chinese officials and analysts say is aimed at paving the way for widening the yuan's trading band sometime this year. In mainland China, the PBOC sets a benchmark rate against which the yuan can trade; currently the bank allows investors to push its value 1% in either direction from that set rate.

過去一週，中國央行試圖通過引導人民幣走軟來提高人民幣的雙向波動性。中國官員和分析師們稱，央行此舉旨在為年內擴大人民幣交易區間鋪平道路。中國央行每日為人民幣匯率設定中間價，允許人民幣圍繞每日中間價上下1%波動。

Many analysts and economists expect the central bank to expand that range by allowing the currency to move up or down by 2% daily, a move some say could happen as soon as next month, when China's rubber-stamp legislature meets in Beijing. And some see the yuan-band widening as the low-hanging fruit as far as reform efforts are concerned.

許多分析師和經濟學家預計中國央行將進一步擴大人民幣日交易區間，允許人民幣圍繞每日中間價上下浮動2%。一些人預計，央行最早可能在下個月採取行動，屆時橡皮圖章式的中國人大會議將在北京舉行。一些市場人士認為，從改革角度來看，擴大人民幣交易區間是一個相對容易實現的目標。

'The PBOC has said it would speed up financial reforms, but things like liberalizing interest rates and exchange rates carry a lot of risks,' said Zhang Ming, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, a government think-tank. 'By comparison, it's a lot easier to do something like widening the yuan's trading band because that would still leave the PBOC in control of the currency.'

中國政府智庫中國社會科學院(Chinese Academy of Social Science)高階經濟學家張明說，央行已表示將加快金融改革，但推進利率和匯率市場化將帶來很多風險，相比之下，擴大人民幣交易區間這樣的舉措要容易得多，因為即便擴大交易區間，人民幣匯率水平仍將受到央行的控制。

More difficult tasks the central bank faces include giving the market a bigger role in setting the exchange rate and in allocating resources and opening the door wider to foreign capital flows -- or money moving in and out of the country.

中國央行面臨的更艱鉅的任務包括：讓市場在決定匯率水平以及資源配置方面發揮更大的作用，放寬跨境資本流動限制。

PBOC officials, led by Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan, are eager to press ahead on those reforms to help reshape the country's economic model so it's more reliant on domestic consumption and less on exports and investments. But some officials and scholars fear that an aggressive financial reform agenda that leaves untouched other pillars of the economy, such as state-owned enterprises, could backfire.

周小川領導下的中國央行官員迫切希望通過這些改革來完成中國經濟的轉型，加大內需在經濟結構中的比重，不再過分依賴出口和投資。但有官員和學者擔心，在不觸及國有企業等其他經濟支柱的情況下，實施激進的金融改革可能適得其反。

China is awash in credit, with domestic debt rising so rapidly over the past five years that analysts say the economy is beginning to look a lot like Japan, Thailand and Korea did before financial bubbles there burst and produced deep recessions. If interest rates are liberalized too fast, they say, China would risk more credit going to build developments with few occupants -- ' ghost cities,' as they are called, thereby making the country more vulnerable to financial problems.

中國積累了龐大的信貸規模，國內債務在過去五年裡迅猛增長，分析人士指出，中國經濟已經出現了日本、泰國和韓國在金融泡沫破滅前的景象，而泡沫的破滅無一例外地導致這些國家陷入了衰退泥潭。他們表示，如果利率市場化步伐過快，可能會有更多信貸湧所謂的“鬼城”，讓中國更難抵禦金融問題。

In addition to yuan-band widening, also high on the PBOC's agenda is setting up a bank-deposit insurance system. The country has never had such insurance, although there has been an implicit guarantee that the government would step in to protect depositors if a bank fails. Introduction of such a system has been stalled for at least 10 years because of opposition from large state-owned banks, officials at those banks say.

除了放寬人民幣交易區間，排在中國央行日程表前列的還有建立銀行存款保險制度。中國從來沒有建立過這種制度，不過政府一直為儲戶提供隱性擔保。大型國有銀行的管理人士說，由於大行反對，建立存款保險制度的計劃已經擱置了至少10年。

But now, China's leaders have put a premium on increasing lending to smaller, innovative firms -- also a priority of the PBOC's -- and want to increase the number of smaller, privately owned banks to make these higher-risk loans. Deposit insurance could help such banks build credibility with consumers worried about the safety of their money.

但中國政府目前鼓勵銀行向具有創新能力的中小企業放貸，這也是中國央行的主要任務之一。政府還希望增加中小型民營銀行的數量，讓這些銀行來發放風險更大的貸款。建立存款保險制度有助於民營銀行在擔心資金安全的儲戶中樹立起信譽。

It's also is widely seen as a first step toward letting banks compete on deposit rates, rather than the current practice in which the government sets it. Higher rates would put more money in Chinese consumers' pockets and give smaller institutions a tool to lure depositors away from larger banks.

建立存款保險制度也被普遍視為放開銀行存款利率限制的第一步。允許銀行設定更高的存款利率一方面可以充實消費者的錢袋子，另一方面也讓中小銀行有機會與大銀行爭奪儲戶。

'All eyes will be on whether the authorities will walk the walk of reform after the talk,' said Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings PLC.

匯豐控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)亞洲區經濟研究聯席主管屈巨集斌表示，所有人都將關注中國能否將嘴上說的落實到行動中來。