年7大熱門技術預測

1. Web Video On Your TV: We’ve already seen many attempts to turn the Internet into a video-delivery pipe to rival cable TV: Google TV, Apple TV, the Boxee Box, Roku, and a slew of “Internet-enabled” TVs. None of them are quite yet cable killers, but they are seeding the market with simple ways to bring Internet video to your large-screen TV in the living room. The more cable-quality video that becomes available over the Web via streaming services such as Netflix, Vudu, or iTunes, the more that people will turn to Web when they are looking for something to watch. This trend is not about surfing the Web on your TV. Nobody wants to do that. It is about using the Internet as an alternative way to deliver movies and TV shows to your flat-screen TV. Even the cable companies will dip their toes into the Internet delivery waters (or plunge deeper if they already have their toes wet). What looks like a pale competitor to cable today will be a lot more viable in a short, twelve months.

1、在電視機上觀看網路視訊

2010年期間，美國市場已經出現數項將網際網路視訊內容與傳統電視機相結合的技術或服務，如Google TV、Apple TV、Roku以及一批“具備網際網路接入功能”電視機。就目前而言，這些技術和服務尚不足對美國傳統有線電視市場構成實質性威脅。但無論如何，這些新技術為將網路視訊帶入大螢幕電視機開啟了新道路。

預計2011年期間，隨著Netflix、Vudu及iTunes所提供網路視訊畫質的提高，更多公眾將成為網路視訊消費者。當然這並不是說公眾將使用電視機來瀏覽網際網路，沒有人會這樣做。我們所說的電視機網路視訊消費，是指公眾可以選擇將網路視訊轉移到大螢幕電視機上觀看。可以預見的是，2011年傳統有線電視服務商也會殺入網路視訊服務市場，屆時網路視訊服務的競爭程度將加劇。

2. Quora Will Have Its Twitter Moment: Social Q&A site Quora may be the current darling of Silicon Valley, but not a lot of people beyond the insular tech startup world actually use it yet. That will start to change in 2011, which I believe will be the year Quora has its Twitter moment and start to really take off. Quora represents a bigger technology trend, which is the layering of an interest graph on top of people’s social graph. On Quora, you can follow not only people, but topics and questions. It defines the world by your interests, not just the people you may know or admire. This is a powerful concept and is not limited to Quora (both Twitter and Facebook also want to own the interest graph), but Quora is designed from the ground up to expose and help you explore your interests. It is addictive, and as it reaches a critical mass of early users, this will be the year it emerges from its shell much like Twitter did in 2007.

2、Quora問答服務受到追捧

Quora由數名Facebook前員工於2008年6月建立，其中包括Facebook首任首席技術官(CTO)亞當·德安傑羅(Adam D’Angelo)。Quora服務的大致模式是：任何網民成為該網站的註冊使用者後，可使用各自真實身份回答其他使用者提出的問題。這種問答服務與維基百科 (Wikipedia)頗為相似。更為重要的是，Quora引進了諸多社交網路的元素，如使用者可對同一個問題的多個答案進行投票、可成為某一使用者的“跟隨者”等等。

2010年1月，Quora開始提供內部測試服務。該網站去年6月稱，鑑於Quora已通過內測服務獲得了大量問題答案，因此已做好了讓更多使用者參與使用該服務的各項準備工作。舍恩菲爾德認為，2011年Quora將迎來自己的“Twitter時刻”，即該服務將受到美國主流網民的歡迎，原因就是Quora服務是基於“興趣相同”社交層，而非基於地理位置。

雖然Twitter和Facebook也重視使用者興趣，但Quora服務更注重將興趣相投者聚集到一起。與Twitter在2007年受到關注一樣，Quora也有望於2011年“破殼而出”。

3. Mobile Social Photo Apps:The end of 2010 witnessed a spate of mobile photo apps including Instagram, PicPlz and Path. They all take advantage of several massive key trends: the growth of iPhone and Android, the ubiquity of decent cell phone cameras, GPS, and existing social networks like Facebook, Twitter, and Foursquare. Each of these apps is built for mobile first. They let you take a picture, mark your location, and share it with your social network (sometimes public, sometimes private). With Instagram and PicPLz, you can choose a filter to make humdrum pics look more exciting or capture a mood. By building on top of existing social networks like Twitter and Foursquare, they are making popular new ways to use those services. Instead of simply checking in, now you can do a photo checkin (even Foursquare lets you do that now). Already Instagram is one of the most popular photo apps in iTunes. Sharing photos is pretty much a universal impulse, and these apps make it easier and more fun.

3、移動社交圖片共享應用程式興起

2010年底，Instagram、PicPlz和Path等移動社交圖片共享應用程式已開始受到歡迎。此類應用程式之所以能夠受到關注，是因為它們及時看到了市場變化：蘋果iPhone和谷歌Android手機市場影響力的提高、絕大多數手機已配備了攝像頭並具備GPS導航功能、Facebook及Twitter等社交網站圖片共享活動非常活躍。

上述移動社交圖片共享應用程式最初都是針對手機使用者而開發。利用此類應用程式，使用者可拍照、標記自己當前所在地理位置、將圖片上傳到Facebook等社交網站。對於Foursquare使用者而言，利用移動社交圖片共享應用程式，他們不再進行簡單的“簽到”(Check in)，而是進行所謂的“圖片簽到”，從而使簽到活動更為生動有趣。

4. Mobile Wallets: If you could use your cell phone as a credit card, would you? Everyone from Apple and Google to Nokia want to make that a reality and tap into the mobile payments market. Both Apple and Google are exploring this opportunity. Google bought mobile payments startup Zetawire to gain experience and the latest Android phone, the Nexus S, comes with an NFC chip—the same kind that is embedded into credit cards and lets you pay by waving it over a wireless reader. The iPhone 5 also may come equipped with an NFC chip, and Apple was sniffing around mobile payments startup BOKU last year for a possible acquisition. It is going to take more than just NFC chips in every phone to make mobile payments a reality, but efforts by the major players this year should begin to move the needle.

4、移動支付業務迅猛發展

在手機已經接近全民普及的今天，如果手機能夠具備信用卡的功能，無疑將受到手機使用者的大力歡迎。正是看到了這一點，蘋果、谷歌、諾基亞及其他廠商都在積極進軍移動支付市場。谷歌此前已收購移動支付業務創業公司Zetawire，以將後者技術整合到Android及Nexus S手機當中。

此類手機安裝了一個近距離通訊(NFC)晶片，該晶片整合了信用卡支付功能，使用者可將手機對著一個無線閱讀器，就可完成支付過程。預計蘋果iPhone 5手機也將安裝NFC晶片。去年期間，蘋果已同移動支付創業公司BOKU接觸，並希望同後者達成收購協議。當然，要使移動支付產業得以全面發展，首先需更多手機配備NFC晶片。但無論如何，谷歌和蘋果兩家公司已開了個好頭。5. Context-Aware Apps: Whether it’s search, mobile, or social apps and services, the most useful apps people will keep coming back to are the ones which help people cut through the increasing clutter of the Internet. Apps that are aware of the context in which they are being used will serve up better filtered information. When you search on your mobile phone, that means you get local results and local offers served up first. If you are on a service like Quora that understands your interest graph, it means that you are only shown topics that you care about, sorted in realtime. If you are on a news site, you will see the most shared links from people in you follow on Twitter or are connected to on Facebook. Music and movie services will similarly surface social recommendations. In a world of information overload, context is king.

5、情境感知應用程式

在上月初於法國巴黎舉行的2010年度LeWeb技術大會上，谷歌地理位置和本地服務副總裁瑪麗莎·梅耶爾(Marissa Mayer)透露，谷歌正開發的下一個重要產品為“情境發現”(contextual discovery)，即根據使用者瀏覽習慣和所處地理位置，主動向使用者推送最有價值的資訊。

其實無論是搜尋、移動業務還是社交網路，情境感知(Context-Aware)都將成為一項非常有用的服務。通過該服務，使用者可實現資訊過濾、找到興趣相投人群等目的。舉例來說，利用情境感知服務，Quora使用者可對大量資訊加以過濾，而要求Quora僅顯示自己感興趣的內容，且此類結果還具備實時特徵。如果你閱讀一條新聞，還可通過情境感知服務，以查閱好友在Twitter上的共享連結等內容。音樂和電影服務網站也可提供類似推薦服務。

6. Open Places Database: Every mobile app, it seems, taps into the geo capabilities of phones to pinpoint your exact location and show you what is around you. (Incidentally, that is another example of a context-aware app). But there is a lot of duplication going on, with everyone from Google to Facebook to Foursquare creating their own database of places. It would make much more sense if there was an open places database that any company could both pull from and contribute to. While we are not there yet, we are making progress towards a more open places database, or at least a federated one. Factual is providing some of the data for Facebook Places and creating a places database is a major focus for the company; MapQuest (owned by AOL, as is TechCrunch) is adopting OpenStreetMaps (which could very well become the central places database with more resources and development); and Foursquare lets other apps pull from its places database through its API. There are economic reasons why some companies don’t want to participate (controlling the places database makes it easier to serve up local offers), but expect to see this movement pick up steam in 2011.

6、開放地理位置資料庫

目前每款移動應用程式都具備了地理位置功能，並能夠向用戶返回其當前所在位置附近的相關資訊。然而這些不同移動應用程式所提供的服務中，有大量地理位置資料實際上已經重疊，原因是谷歌、Facebook、Foursquare都通過相應服務建立自家資料庫。

由此可見，如果上述服務商能夠對外開放各自地理位置資料庫，無疑將給使用者帶來更多便利。事實上，已經有人在這樣做。如Foursquare就允許第三方移動應用程式通過應用程式設計介面(API)來收集其相關地理位置資料。現有服務商不願開放地理位置資料庫，自然是出於自家利益考慮，而非技術因素。但2011年期間，外界對於開放地理位置資料庫的呼聲將日益高漲。

7. The Streaming Cloud: As all media moves to the cloud, more and more people will stream their movies and music whenever they want to any device. I’ve already mentioned the forces that will bring Web video streaming to your TV, but those movies and TV shows should also be available on your iPads, Android Tablets, or even mobile phones if you want. Expiring downloads will still make sense for plane trips and other places where the network is spotty, but you will manage your subscriptions and collections in the cloud. Think Netflix streaming applied to all media. If Google or Apple can convince the record companies to come along for the ride, the streaming revolution will hit music as well, with both working on jukebox-in-the-sky services. Why would you want to bother with managing all the download rights for the songs you buy from iTunes between your iPhone, iPad, laptop, and your wife’s computer, when you could just sign in form anywhere and start streaming? Plenty have tried with varying degrees of success and failure (Rhapsody, Rdio, Spotify), but it will take someone with the negotiating muscle of Apple or Google to finally bring streaming music to the masses.

7、流式雲端計算服務

隨著所有媒體都轉向雲端計算服務，越來越多的公眾希望能夠隨時隨地在任何一臺裝置上觀看流視訊或收聽流音樂。這些裝置既可為電視機，也可以是iPad平板電視、Android平板電腦甚至智慧手機。如果谷歌、蘋果能夠同各大唱片公司達成合作協議，無疑將引發網路音樂服務的新一輪變革。換句話說，通過雲端計算服務，使用者不再需要下載電影或音樂，而只需登入自己的服務帳號，就能在任何一臺裝置上觀看電視或收聽音樂。