蘋果和Facebook給投資者的啓示

Not paying attention to U.S. stocks recently? Perhaps the thrilling spectacle of the Olympics kept you away from your portfolio. Or the no-less-engrossing public split of Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes made you forget about your 401(k). Maybe it was the languid summer, William Shatner's return as Priceline's 'negotiator' or the struggles of the Red Sox and Arsenal.

最近沒有關注美股的走勢？或許是扣人心絃的奧運大戲讓你忘記了自己的投資組合，也可能是湯姆•克魯斯(Tom Cruise)和凱蒂•霍爾姆斯(Katie Holmes)同樣引人入勝的高調分手讓你忘記了自己的退休金計劃。還有可能是因爲夏日炎炎讓人打不起精神，威廉•夏納(William Shatner)重新出演在線旅遊服務公司Priceline廣告中的“談判家”，或波士頓紅襪隊(Red Sox)和阿森納(Arsenal)遇到了困難。

Whatever the reason, here is a quick way to get reacquainted with recent stock-market history: Slide open your iPhone, check your Facebook page and you are done.

不管是什麼原因，這裏給你介紹一條溫習股市近況的捷徑：打開iPhone，查看Facebook頁面，搞定。

That's right. The last few months in the world of equities can be summed up in the opposing fortunes of Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. One is sitting atop the corporate world, having just been crowned the largest-ever U.S. company by market capitalization. (There is an asterisk, but more on that later.) The other is struggling with a share price that has nearly halved since a messy initial public offering in May.

沒錯。股市過去幾個月的情況可以用蘋果(Apple Inc.)和Facebook Inc.截然不同的命運加以總結。一個高居企業界榜首，剛剛獲得史上市值最高的美國公司的頭銜（有些情況需要解釋，過會我們再說）。另一個的股價從5月份亂糟糟地上市以來已經下跌近半。

The gap between the values placed by investors on Apple and Facebook - around $621 billion and $42 billion, respectively - is large enough to fit the economy of South Africa. But the distance between the yin and the yang of the U.S. stock market is more telling than that and offers three insights into investors' current thinking.

投資者對蘋果和Facebook的估值分別約爲6,210億美元和420億美元，兩者之間的鴻溝裝得下整個南非經濟。但美股兩極之間的距離告訴我們的還不止這一點，它給了我們三條有關當前投資者思維的啓示。

First, pervasive uncertainty and ultralow interest rates are prompting the market to look at the long term. By ascribing such a large value to Apple, investors are betting on the company being alive and well for a long time.

首先，無處不在的不確定性和超低的利率促使市場着眼於長遠。給予蘋果如此高的估值，投資者實際上是在賭：蘋果將長期生存，而且活得很健康。

This isn't just a gut reaction but a belief in Apple's continued ability to generate profits. Low rates help this process by effectively reducing the value of money invested today - think of the meager interest you get from your bank - and increasing the importance of future returns.

這不只是一種本能反應，也是相信蘋果將來還能夠繼續產生利潤。低利率有助於投資者着眼長期，因爲它實際上降低了今天所投入資金的價值（想想你把錢存在銀行那點微薄的利息）、增加了將來所取得回報的價值。

'What we are seeing with Apple's rise and Facebook fall is a long-term story,' says Frank Partnoy, a professor of finance and law at the University of San Diego, whose latest book, 'Wait,' extols the merits of thinking before acting. 'People are looking at the two business models and saying: 'Apple is going to be around and Facebook might or might not be around.''

聖迭戈大學(University of San Diego)金融與法律教授弗蘭克•帕特諾伊(Frank Partnoy)說，蘋果崛起與Facebook衰落體現的是一個長期概念；人們看着這兩種商業模式說，蘋果會活下去，Facebook可能會活下去，也可能活不下去。他的最新力作《等待：延遲的藝術與科學》(Wait: The Art and Science of Delay)讚美了三思而後行的價值。

If the thought of Facebook disappearing sounds preposterous, glance, if you will, at the scrap heap of once-hot technology companies - from Netscape Communications Inc. to Myspace (formerly owned by The Wall Street Journal's parent company, News Corp.) - or the army of severely wounded firms such as Nokia Corp, Hewlett-Packard Co. and Research In Motion Ltd.

如果你覺得Facebook銷聲匿跡的想法聽起來荒唐可笑，不妨看看曾經紅極一時的科技公司──如網景(Netscape Communications Inc.)，如《華爾街日報》母公司新聞集團(News Corp.)曾經擁有的Myspace──留下的爛攤子，也不妨看看諾基亞(Nokia Corp)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)和Research In Motion Ltd.等衆多傷痕累累的公司。

Apple could go the same way, but investors clearly don't think so, for reasons including a top-notch brand, a strong patent position (as Samsung Electronics Co. just found out), its cash pile and its record of innovation and productivity. On average, Apple's employees generate 64% more revenue than Facebook's workers.

蘋果也有可能走上同樣的道路，但顯然投資者不是這麼認爲。他們的理由包括：蘋果擁有一流的品牌，專利地位佔優勢（三星電子剛剛領教過），現金充足，在創新和效率方面成績顯赫。平均來講，蘋果員工創造的收入比Facebook員工多64%。

The second message concerns the companies' management teams, which are both led by rookie chief executives. The difference between Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg, however, is that the former is succeeding a legend while the latter has been hailed as a legend in the making.

第二條啓示與兩家公司的管理層有關。兩支團隊都由上任不久的首席執行長率領，但蒂姆•庫克(Tim Cook)與馬克•扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的區別在於，前者是在繼承傳奇，後者被認爲是一個仍在創造中的傳奇。

So far, the market has been unequivocal: Since Steve Jobs's death, Apple's share price has risen 78%. Since Mr. Zuckerberg became CEO of a public company, Facebook's shares are down 49%.

到目前爲止，市場對此的反應是毫不含糊的。自史蒂夫•喬布斯(Steve Jobs)去世以來，蘋果股價累計上漲了78%。從扎克伯格當上上市公司CEO以來，Facebook股價累計下跌了49%。

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a management professor at Yale, believes the pre-IPO hype surrounding Facebook may have clouded its executives' judgement. 'There was a grandiosity about the Facebook's management team that was problematic,' he told me.

耶魯大學(Yale)管理學教授傑弗裏•索南菲爾德(Jeffrey Sonnenfeld)認爲，IPO之前有關Facebook的炒作可能影響了管理層的判斷。他對筆者講，當時外界誇大了Facebook問題重重的管理團隊。

Mr. Sonnenfeld, an expert on how companies and executives can bounce back from serious setbacks, believes Mr. Zuckerberg shouldn't pull his hoodie over his eyes. 'Going into denial mode would only get employees and investors more anxious,' he said.

索南菲爾德是研究公司和經理人如何從嚴重挫敗中東山再起的專家。他認爲扎克伯格不應該用連帽衫的帽子遮住自己的雙眼。他說，進入“否認模式”只會讓員工和投資者更加擔心。

Facebook declined to comment. Apple didn't respond to a request for comment.

Facebook拒絕置評。蘋果沒有回覆置評請求。

The third issue is whether Apple's record value and Facebook's stock plunge should be seen as 'sell' and 'buy' signs, respectively, as per Warren Buffett's famous aphorism about being greedy when others are fearful and vice-versa.

第三個問題是，根據沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)“別人恐懼我貪婪、別人貪婪我恐懼”的名言，是否應該將蘋果創紀錄的估值和Facebook股價的大幅下跌分別視爲“賣出”和“買入”的信號。

I would point to two sets of numbers. First, once inflation is taken into account, Apple is smaller than Microsoft Corp., General Electric Co. and two other tech giants at their peaks. Optimists argue that is because Apple has room to expand, while the pessimists counter that it underlines fears of a slowdown in growth once the products developed in Mr. Jobs's 'skunk works' run out.

讓我來說的話，請看兩組數字。首先，如果把通貨膨脹因素算進去，蘋果的市值低於微軟(Microsoft Corp.)、通用電氣(General Electric Co.)和另外兩家科技巨頭的鼎盛時期。樂觀派認爲這是因爲蘋果還有擴張的空間，悲觀派認爲這反映了投資者暗中的一種擔憂：一旦喬布斯“臭鼬工場”開發出來的產品用完，蘋果的增長可能就會減速。

The other data point is the price/earnings ratio: Apple is trading at less than 13 times next year's estimated earnings, while Facebook is at around 30 times.

另一組數據是市盈率。根據未來一年預期利潤計算，蘋果的市盈率不到13倍，Facebook市盈率在30倍左右。

Despite its reputation for 'irrational exuberance' and short-termism, the market appears remarkably cool and long-sighted in judging the prospects of two era-defining technology giants.

儘管市場以其“非理性繁榮”和短視近利聞名，但在判斷兩家劃時代科技巨頭的前途時，卻顯得出奇的冷靜和長遠。