科技公司的興衰 The fall and rise of technology juggernauts

The San Francisco-based buyout firm Francisco Partners recently published a delicious analysis relevant to anyone wondering about what the future holds for technology stocks. It is a bulletin in which both pessimists and optimists can find hope and it offers a helpful perspective for those wondering about the current valuations of technology companies.

總部位於舊金山的收購集團Francisco Partners最近發表了一份精闢的分析，它對於任何揣測科技股未來的人都很重要。在這份分析中，悲觀者和樂觀者都能找到希望，它爲那些對科技公司當前估值感到納悶的人提供了一個有幫助的視角。

First, the bad news. The 15 technology companies with the largest market capitalisations in 2000 have been decimated — losing about $1.35tn, or roughly 60 per cent, of their combined market value. Only one, Microsoft, has a market capitalisation that is higher than in 2000. One extraordinary aspect of this meltdown is that it did not occur, as some might suspect, in the much ballyhooed dotcom wonder companies of yesteryear. Instead it was a blight that affected most of what were once considered blue-chip technology holdings. In 2000, Nortel sported a market value of $209bn that, like those of its classmates, had been bloated by the enthusiasm of the era; it has since gone bankrupt. While other members of this corporate bracket have avoided that ignominy, their long-term stock charts present bleak pictures. Cisco’s market value has faded from $403bn to $144bn; Intel’s from $288bn to $161bn; and EMC’s from $218bn to $51bn.

首先是壞消息。2000年市值最高的15家科技公司已嚴重萎縮，市值損失約1.35萬億美元，約佔它們總市值的60%。只有微軟(Microsoft)一家的市值高於2000年水平。市值滑坡的一個不尋常之處在於，它沒有像一些人可能猜測的那樣，發生在當年被大肆炒作的網絡奇蹟公司身上。相反，這種不幸落在了多數曾經被視爲藍籌科技股的公司身上。2000年，北電網絡(Nortel)市值高達2090億美元，與同業一樣，該公司的市值因爲當年的市場熱情而膨脹；後來該公司破產。儘管其他科技巨擘避免了這種不光彩結局，但它們的長期股價圖表慘不忍睹。思科(Cisco)市值已從4030億美元降至1440億美元；英特爾(Intel)市值已從2880億美元降至1610億美元；EMC的市值從2180億美元降至510億美元。

For the class of 2000, the sharpest property price declines have been in the deteriorating neighbourhoods of systems, hardware and semiconductors. This is because of the continuing decline in the cost of computing, the rise of open-source software, the move to the “cloud” and the emergence of huge datacentres where companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook are designing their own approaches.

對於2000年的知名公司而言，最大跌幅出現在系統、硬件和半導體等表現日益惡化的業務領域。這是因爲計算成本持續下滑、開放源軟件崛起、轉向“雲計算”的趨勢，以及大規模數據中心的興起，在數據中心領域，亞馬遜(Amazon)、谷歌(Google)和Facebook等公司都在設計自己的策略。

Now a word from sunnier climes. Fifteen companies that were together worth less than $10bn in 2000 are now among the world’s 50 top technology companies as measured by market capitalisation, with a combined worth of $2.1tn. (Had Amazon been included, rather than being classified as a retailer, this number would have swollen by another $250bn). Apple, which even in 2000 was viewed as little more than a curiosity, has risen in value from $6bn to $659bn. A few themes jump out of this listing: the power of novelty, the shift towards China, the benefits of patience and the virtues of capital efficiency.

現在說點讓人比較愉快的事情吧。2000年總市值不到100億美元的15家公司，如今就市值而言已躋身全球科技公司50強，它們的總市值高達2.1萬億美元。（如果加上亞馬遜（而不是將其列爲一家零售商），這個數字會再增加2500億美元）。即使在2000年，蘋果(Apple)仍只是被視爲一家奇特的公司，如今其市值已從60億美元飆升至6590億美元。這份名單體現出這樣幾個主題：新穎性的威力、重心轉向中國的趨勢、耐心的好處以及資本效率的重要性。

Several of today’s most valuable technology companies did not even exist in 2000. Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter together have a collective corporate history of only 33 years. Even Google and Salesforce were barely smudges on the horizon in 2000. These companies now have a combined value of about $850bn. Beyond some of the customised systems they operate in their own datacentres, and in Google’s case, some sideline activities such as its Nexus phones and Chrome notebooks, none of these companies sully their hands with anything as taxing as hardware. They have thrived from the artful deployment of software, in particular the “cloud based” variant, and — for Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter (and Google’s YouTube service) — organising and collating the contributions of their users.

如今市值最高的幾家科技公司在2000年甚至還未問世。Facebook、LinkedIn和Twitter三家公司的歷史加起來也就33年。2000年，就連谷歌和Salesforce也還只是地平線上的小點。這些公司現在的總市值約爲8500億美元。除了它們在各自的數據中心運行的一些定製系統以及（就谷歌而言）像Nexus手機和Chrome筆記本等副業以外，這些公司都沒有費神染指棘手的硬件業務。它們的成功來自於巧妙的軟件部署，特別是“基於雲”的軟件，以及（就Facebook、 LinkedIn、Twitter以及谷歌的YouTube服務而言）組織和整理用戶生成的內容。

Perched in a clump as the fourth, fifth and sixth most valuable technology companies of the day are Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. This threesome is now worth $409bn — testament not just to how much China has progressed in a decade and a half but a harbinger of the next several decades as the country places increasing emphasis on spawning its own technology. Woe betide the management of any western technology company that underestimates the challenge posed by the vast number of emerging Chinese competitors, fuelled by an ambition and work regimen that is hard to match in Europe and the US.

目前在市值排行榜上位居第四、第五和第六位的公司是阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、騰訊(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)。這三家公司目前的總市值爲4090億美元，這不僅證明了中國在15年裏取得了巨大進步，還預示着未來幾十年的格局。中國正越來越注重發展自主技術。低估中國的大批新興競爭對手將會帶來的挑戰，將給西方科技公司管理層帶來厄運。驅使中國競爭對手的雄心和工作文化是歐美難以匹敵的。

Finally, a note about two other themes that jump out of this listing: patience and profits.

最後說一下這份名單體現出的另外兩個主題：耐心和利潤。

Most investors in technology companies squander vast sums by reacting to short-term jitters or global jolts rather than concentrating on the staying power of those emerging enterprises on the right side of history.

科技公司的多數投資者會浪費鉅額資金，因爲他們對短期恐慌或全球動盪做出條件反射式的反應，而不是專注於符合歷史潮流的新興企業的持久力。

And for the founders and chief executives of all of the current billion-dollar “unicorns” there is another abiding message. Almost all of today’s technology juggernauts formed before about 2008 required smallish amounts of capital. Google, for example, consumed only $8m before turning profitable. Maybe this means that sooner or later a new class of company will come into vogue — a rare species known as the profitable unicorn.

對於當前所有10億美元級的“獨角獸”企業的創始人和首席執行官而言，還有一條永恆的信息。在2008年左右之前創建的幾乎所有科技巨擘，當初都需要很少的資金投入。例如，谷歌在實現盈利之前僅消耗了800萬美元。這或許意味着，新一類的公司遲早會流行：它們將是被稱爲“盈利獨角獸”的珍稀物種。