沙特准備打低油價持久戰 Saudi budget lifts prospect of prolonged oil market glut

The outlook for oil prices is under renewed pressure following signals from Saudi Arabia that it is preparing for a long period of low returns and expectations that Iran will further flood the market when sanctions are lifted.

油價前景面臨新的壓力，因爲沙特阿拉伯發出該國正在爲長期低迴報做準備的信號，同時各方預期伊朗在制裁解除後將向市場新增大量供應。

Analysts said plans announced by Saudi Arabia late on Monday to reduce a budget deficit of nearly $98bn through spending cuts, reforms to energy subsidies and a privatisation drive were a signal that Riyadh intends to stick with its policy of not cutting output.

分析人士稱，沙特週一晚間宣佈通過削減支出、改革能源補貼以及私有化舉措來壓低目前逼近980億美元預算赤字的方案表明，沙特打算堅持不減產的政策。

It showed that Opec’s de facto leader is prepared to accept cheap crude prices as it seeks to put pressure on higher cost rivals such as US shale producers and waits for the market to rebalance.

這表明，石油輸出國組織（OPEC，中文簡稱“歐佩克”）的實際領導者打算接受低廉的原油價格，以求對美國頁岩油生產商等成本更高的競爭對手施壓，等待市場重新達到平衡。

“They are responding to the low price regime, the duration of which has surprised,” said Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank. “Having gone this far with their pump and dump strategy they sense that victory in the shape of non-Opec production cuts is just around the corner.”

“他們正在對低價體系做出迴應，該體系的持續時間迄今出乎意料，”盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)的奧勒漢森(Ole Hansen)表示，“在推行‘全力開採和傾銷’戰略到了這一步之後，他們感覺勝利在望，非歐佩克國家即將減產。”

Another signal that Saudi Arabia is prepared to sustain its strategy of keeping the taps open came from the chairman of Saudi Aramco, the state-controlled oil company, after the budget was announced.

在沙特宣佈預算後，沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)董事長放出了另一個表明沙特准備堅持不減產戰略的信號。

“We see the market balancing sometime in 2016, we see demand ultimately exceeding supply and soaking up a lot of the excess inventory and prices in due course will respond,” said Khalid alFalih. “Saudi Arabia more than anyone else has the capacity to wait out the market until this balancing takes place.”

“我們預計市場將在2016年的某個時候達到平衡，我們預計需求最終將超過供應並吸收大量過剩庫存，價格將在適當的時候做出迴應，”哈立德法立赫(Khalid Falih)說，“沙特阿拉伯比其他任何人都更有能力堅持到市場平衡。”

Oil prices moved higher yesterday supported by forecasts for lower temperatures in the US and as hedge funds and other speculators moved to close bearish bets before the end of the year. Brent, the international oil marker, rose 2.5 per cent to $37.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, added 2.4 per cent to $37.68

昨日石油價格上漲，受美國降溫預報的支撐，以及對衝基金和其他投機者在年底前紛紛對看跌押注進行平倉。國際油價標杆布倫特原油上漲2.5%，至每桶37.53美元，而美國油價基準西德克薩斯中質油上漲2.4%，至每桶37.68美元。

But a relentless rise in global oil and ballooning inventories has resulted in the price of Brent crude falling 35 per cent this year to its lowest levels in more than a decade.

但全球石油產量的持續上升以及飆漲的庫存導致布倫特原油價格今年以來下跌35%，至10多年來的最低水平。

The market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2016 as Riyadh resists calls for production restraint and Iran, once Opec’s second-largest producer, prepares to increase output once sanctions linked to its nuclear programme are lifted. Reports that the Iran nuclear deal was on track after Tehran dispatched a shipment of more than 11 tonnes of low-enriched uranium to Russia has renewed focus on the supply glut.

由於沙特拒絕響應限制石油產量的呼籲，而歐佩克第二大產油國伊朗準備在覈計劃相關制裁解除後立即增產，預計市場在2016年將維持供大於求的狀態。有關德黑蘭方面把一批逾11噸的低濃縮鈾發往俄羅斯、伊朗核協議進展順利的報道，促使各方再度關注供應過剩問題。

“Iran is gearing up to flood the market with 500,000 barrels a day within weeks of sanctions being lifted while the ceasefire in Libya may also add extra barrels,” Mr Hansen said.

“伊朗準備在制裁解除後數週內每天將50萬桶原油打入市場，而利比亞的停火還可能增加額外的原油供應，”盛寶銀行的漢森表示。

Data showing weaker demand for oil products such petrol and diesel in Europe during October have also affected sentiment. “This might be the first indication that further demand gains induced by additional driving on the back of low prices is likely to be limited in 2016,” noted consultancy JBC Energy.

有關10月份歐洲成品油（如汽油和柴油）需求減弱的數據，也影響了市場情緒。“這可能是第一個跡象，表明低價引發的額外駕駛行爲所帶來的需求增長在2016年可能是有限的，”JBC能源諮詢公司(JBC Energy)指出。