比特幣並未淡出視線

Rand Paul loves to present himself as a political pioneer. This week, however, the Kentucky senator and darling of the Tea Party is carving out new frontiers in finance. Announcing a 2016 presidential bid on Tuesday, he said he would collect donations via bitcoin. That makes him the first US politician to raise funds using thecryptocurrency. The move is likely to be wildly popular with his libertarian supporters, given the Republican party’s deep suspicions of fiat currency and the US Federal Reserve.

蘭德•保羅(Rand Paul)十分喜歡以政治先鋒的形象現身。然而，最近這位肯塔基州參議員、茶黨(Tea Party)紅人開始在金融領域開闢新土。在宣佈參加2016年美國總統競選時，他稱自己將通過比特幣接受捐款。這使他成爲首位將利用加密電子貨幣(cryptocurrency)籌集資金的美國政客。鑑於共和黨對法定貨幣及美聯儲(Fed)極度不信任，此舉可能會廣受其自由派支持者的歡迎。

But there is another bitcoin saga that investors should watch. Behind the scenes Wall Street financiers, too, are embarking on market experiments — not in relation to the retail payments or donations with which bitcoin is normally associated but rather the wholesale financial world. Notably, initiatives are being launched to use bitcoin for back-office financial markets settlements. And, while they are at an early stage, they could become important; not least because they are attracting support from wealthy investors.

但是，還有另一場關於比特幣的大戲值得投資者關注。華爾街的金融人士正在幕後開啓市場實驗——這些實驗無關於通常與比特幣聯繫在一起的零售支付或捐款，而與批發金融有關。特別是一些利用比特幣進行金融市場後臺結算的項目正在籌備之中。而且，儘管這些項目仍處於早期階段，它們可能會變得十分重要；尤其是因爲它們吸引了富有的投資者的支持。

To understand what is going on, think for a moment about the six-year-old bitcoin technology. Cryptocurrencies are often described in popular culture, and by Mr Paul’s Tea Party followers, as “electronic money”. But it is better to visualise them as financial ledgers — a public record book that keeps track of how many units of the currency each user’s bitcoin “wallet” contains.

爲了解眼下的情形，我們應該利用片刻時間思考一下已誕生6年的比特幣技術。在流行文化以及保羅的茶黨追隨者中，加密電子貨幣常常被描述爲“電子貨幣”(electronic money)。但是，更準確地說，應該把它們視爲金融賬簿——一個記錄着每個用戶的比特幣“錢包”中包含多少數量比特幣的公共記錄簿。

The ledger is mathematically signed in a way that prevents unauthorised doctoring. To own a bitcoin is to possess a secret code that identifies you as the Holder of a particular wallet, to whose contents the public ledger (or “blockchain”) attests. Trust in the system is created not by a third party (a central bank, say, as with official currencies) but by a type of cryptography. This can make bitcoin a store of value (albeit a lousy one recently; the price has roughly halved in the past 12 months).

該賬簿採用數學化簽名，以此防止非授權篡改。擁有一枚比特幣即擁有一個密碼——它將你確定爲一個特定錢包的所有者，公共賬簿（或者叫“區塊鏈”(BlockChain)）會證明錢包內東西的歸屬。對系統的信任，並非由第三方（比如說，對官方貨幣體系的信任就是由作爲第三方的央行建立的），而是由一種密碼系統建立起來。這可以使比特幣成爲一種價值儲存手段（儘管最近成了糟糕的儲值手段；過去12個月比特幣的價格下跌近一半。）

But the cryptoledger can also be used to make financial transactions through blockchain technology, which has three notable features. First, in theory a blockchain can execute transactions instantly. Second, blockchains can also perform transactions anonymously. Third, transactions can occur without the need to use third parties, or pay fees to a bank or clearing house. That is because the “cost” of running the bitcoin network is borne by the anonymous owners of servers that connect computer code in exchange for receiving new bitcoins as the system expands (this is known as “mining”).

但是這種加密賬簿也可以用於通過區塊鏈技術進行金融交易，該技術有三個顯著特點。第一，理論上講區塊鏈可以即時執行交易。第二，區塊鏈也可以匿名完成交易。第三，無需使用第三方、或向銀行（或清算機構）支付費用，就可以進行交易。這是因爲比特幣體系擴大過程中的運行成本，由那些連接計算機代碼、以獲得新比特幣（這個過程就是所謂的“挖礦”）的服務器的匿名所有者承擔了。

These features make the system attractive for retail-style trades and money transfers, legitimate and illicit. But they could theoretically be useful for financial markets. Bankers often say they are at the cutting edge of innovation, but many of the systems they use are lamentably old-fashioned. It can take days, and significant fees, to settle trades in loans or derivatives. That makes the system ripe for disruption.

這些特性使比特幣對零售型交易和資金轉賬（無論是合法的還是非法的）都頗具吸引力。但理論上，這些特性可能對金融市場很有用。銀行業人士總是說他們處於創新的前沿，但他們使用的很多系統極爲老舊。要結算貸款或者衍生品交易往往要花費數天時間和不菲的費用。這讓金融系統亟需被顛覆。

And some names are already jumping in. Last month, Blythe Masters, the former JPMorgan banker, unveiled a company called Digital Asset Holdings to develop bitcoin-based settlement systems. Don Wilson, a Chicago markets luminary, and Sunil Hirani, a derivatives and exchanges veteran, are also working with the company. Separately, JPMorgan Chase has applied for a patent for a technology that sounds similar to bitcoin; and patents are pending from other banks and financial groups.

一些知名人士和機構已踊躍加入其中。上月，前摩根大通(JPMorgan)銀行家布萊思•馬斯特斯(Blythe Masters)將一家名叫Digital Asset Holdings的公司帶入公衆視野之內，這家公司在開發比特幣結算系統。聞名芝加哥金融市場的唐•威爾遜(Don Wilson)，以及衍生品和外匯專家蘇尼爾•希拉尼(Sunil Hirani)也爲該公司工作。此外，摩根大通也申請了一項聽上去與比特幣類似的技術專利；其他銀行和金融企業的專利也正在申請中。

It remains to be seen if these initiatives succeed. One obstacle is that the stance of regulators is unclear. Another is that the bitcoin name carries stigma because the currency has sometimes been used by criminals. Then there is the issue of anonymity. DAH says it wants to provide much-needed transparency for bitcoin. This will be hard in a system organised by anonymous computer scientists — unless DAH itself becomes a third-party intermediary and charges fees, in which case part of the attraction of bitcoin disappears.

這些計劃是否能成功還有待觀察。其中一個障礙是監管者立場不明。另一個是比特幣因有時被犯罪者利用而沾染了污名。然後還有匿名性的問題。Digital Asset Holdings表示想爲比特幣提供其亟需的透明度。然而，在一個由匿名計算機專家管理的系統中，要做到這一點十分困難，除非該公司本身也成爲一個第三方中介機構，並收取費用，但那樣的話比特幣會喪失部分魅力。

Such problems do not deter the enthusiasts; after all, they point out, most financial innovations appear unlikely to take root at first. When people such as Ms Masters developed credit derivatives three decades ago, for example, they seemed truly bizarre.

這些問題都無法阻攔比特幣狂熱者；他們指出，畢竟大多數金融創新一開始看上去都不太可能成功。比如，當馬斯特斯等人30年前發明出信用衍生品的時候，那些產品似乎也很奇怪。

So perhaps the real lesson for investors is that the focus on “innovation” is changing: in an ultra-low interest rate world, the idea of creating financial products looks less exciting. It is boring back-office technology that is the new innovation frontier. Consider it another consequence of the peculiar post-crisis financial system — or, as Mr Paul’s supporters might argue, an era when money is so distorted that normal assumptions are turned upside down.

因此，對投資者而言或許真正的教訓是“創新”的焦點在變化：在超低利率的環境下，創造金融產品的想法看上去不那麼令人興奮。乏味的後臺技術纔是新的創新前沿。就把它看做奇特的後危機時代金融體系的另一個後果吧，保羅的支持者可能會說，這個時代金錢已被扭曲至此，以至於常規的假設都被顛倒了。