中國樓市開始反彈 力度仍然不足

There's more evidence of a turning point in China's Property sector. But developers won't rush to start new projects just yet.

又有證據表明中國樓市的拐點正在到來，但開發商暫時不會匆忙開建新的項目。

June's property data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows prices rising 0.02% month-over-month, the first increase since September 2011.

國家統計局發佈的數據顯示，6月份房價環比上漲0.02%。這是2011年9月份以來首次上漲。

That jibes with numbers from private property agency Soufun, which also showed a turnaround in prices in June. It reflects a creeping increase in sales, which have been improving steadily since February.

民間房地產中介搜房網(Soufun)的數據也顯示6月份房價出現反彈。房價反彈是房屋銷量緩慢上升的反映。從今年2月份以來，房屋銷售狀況就一直在穩步改善。

In 2009, the last time a slowdown in overall economic growth forced the government to abandon its controls on real estate, the turnaround in property prices triggered a rapid rebound in investment by developers keen to cash in.

2009年，也就是上一次政府因爲經濟增長整體減速而被迫放棄房地產調控的時候，房價的回升刺激急於從中獲利的開發商增加投資，投資數額迅速反彈。

This time it might take a little longer.

這一次可能需要更長時間才能看到投資反彈。

For starters, inventory levels are high. Property already under construction is equal to 3.7 times total sales in 2011. Developers will want to clear some of that overhang before breaking ground on new projects.

首先是庫存水平高。已經在建的房屋達到了2011年總銷量的3.7倍，開發商將會先清理掉一部分庫存，然後再開建新樓盤。

Also, though policy controls are not as restrictive as they were at the start of the year, the government is not about to allow another binge of speculative purchases. Earlier this month, Premier Wen Jiabao was promising 'unflinching' and 'long-term' controls on speculators.

其次，雖然政策調控沒有年初那麼嚴厲，但政府不會允許再出現一輪投機性購房熱潮。本月早些時候，國務院總理溫家寶還在承諾要“堅定不移”地抑制房地產投機，並將這作爲一項“長期”政策。

Finally, there has been no surge in new loans like the one that funded the rapid turnaround in investment in 2009. In the first half of that year, new loans tripled on-year. In the first half of 2012, they grew only 16%.

最後，新增貸款並沒有像2009年那樣急劇增加，當年新增貸款的飆升爲迅速反彈的投資提供了資金。2009年上半年，新增貸款達到上年同期的三倍；而2012年上半年，新增貸款只同比增加了16%。

Rising sales and prices will put a floor under falling investment, so China's property sector should not be a drag on growth in the second half. But it won't be a major boost to the economy either.

房屋銷量和價格的上升會阻止投資下滑，所以中國房地產行業應該不會拖累下半年的經濟增長。但它也不會給經濟帶來重大提振。