關注社會:中國內陸將吸引更多外資

With wages in China rising at about 12 per cent annually after adjusting for inflation over the past few years, it's easy to think that lower-cost countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia will benefit.

近幾年來，中國經通脹調整後的工資水平每年以12%左右的速度增長，有鑑於此，人們很容易就會認爲，孟加拉國、越南和印尼等成本更低的國家將從中受益。

But the conventional wisdom that China will attract less foreign direct investment (FDI) as manufacturing moves away is wrong, according to a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit.

一般認爲，隨着製造業外流，中國吸引的外來直接投資(FDI)將會減少。但根據經濟學人智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)新近發表的一份報告，這種常見觀點是錯誤的。

The main beneficiaries from rising labour costs on China's coasts are instead China's inland provinces, which will attract huge amounts of FDI in coming years.

中國沿海地區勞動力成本持續上漲的主要受益者將是中國的內陸省份，這些地區在未來幾年內將吸引大量FDI。

While EIU research showed that the textile sector in China was shrinking at an annual rate of 6 per cent a year, China remains the hub for manufacturing of computer products and value-added goods, not to mention retail and services in general.

EIU的研究顯示，雖然中國紡織業正以每年6%的速度萎縮，但就電腦產品和有附加值的產品而言，中國仍然是製造業中心，而總體的零售業和服務業就更不用說了。

By 2015, EIU predicts that Liaoning in the northeast will be attracting as much as $50bn in inbound FDI, while Sichuan will attract about $18bn. To put this in perspective, the whole of India pulled in $78bn in the first ten months of 2010.

EIU預計，到2015年，遼寧省將吸引多達500億美元的FDI，而四川省將吸引180億美元左右。爲使讀者對這些數字有個概念，在此拿印度作比：2010年前10個月，印度全國吸引的FDI爲780億美元。

China's most industrialised province of Guangdong, a magnet for FDI since the 1980s, will not do too shabbily either, pulling in as much as $33bn in 2015.

作爲中國工業化程度最高的省份，廣東從上世紀80年代以來一直在吸引大量FDI。今後該省的表現也不會太差，預計2015年可吸引330億美元FDI。

The shift inland is already apparent in Chongqing in western China where party boss Bo Xilai has successfully made the investment climate attractive for the likes of Hewlett-Packard and others. The EIU points out that in 2007, Chongqing was ranked 22nd on a list of 31 provinces ranked by inbound FDI. Last year, it attracted as much as $11bn.

FDI流向內陸地區的趨勢，在地處西部地區的重慶已表現得相當明顯。重慶市委書記薄熙來成功地改善了當地的投資環境，吸引了惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等衆多知名外企。EIU指出，在2007年，重慶吸引的FDI在31個省份中僅排在第22位。去年，這個數字已高達110億美元。

The other big trend identified by the EIU is that services is attracting more investment than ever. FDI in both wholesale and retail has grown by nearly 40 per cent a year over the past five years.

EIU還指出了另一個大趨勢：中國服務業吸引的外來投資正在不斷增加。在最近5年內，服務業批發和零售兩個領域的FDI都以每年近40%的速度增長。

In places like Xiamen in Fujian province, one of the earliest beneficiaries of FDI from Taiwan dating back to the 1980s, services FDI in sectors like IT and scientific research and technical services has been booming. About three-fifths of the FDI in Xiamen is in services.

在諸如福建省廈門市這樣的地方，IT、科研、技術服務等服務業領域的FDI迅猛增長。上世紀80年代，廈門成爲來自臺灣的FDI的最早一批受益者，目前該市吸引的FDI約五分之三都流向了服務業。

What this barrage of numbers suggests is that China's place at the very top of the league tables of inbound FDI among developing countries is not about to be vacated in the foreseeable future.

這一大堆數字說明，在可預見的將來，中國不會讓出發展中國家中在吸引FDI方面的頭把交椅。

One reason is that productivity has been growing about as fast as wages in China, softening the impact of a rising wage bill for manufacturers and those in the service sector.

一個原因是，中國生產力的增長與工資水平的增長基本相當，減輕了工資持續上漲對製造業和服務業企業的影響。

The education levels for its workers are also far superior to that in India and Indonesia. Last month, an annual survey by Pratham, an educational charity in India, found that the majority of fifth grade students among those surveyed could not read texts for second grade students. Maths levels were also sub-par – altogether the survey painted a dismal picture of a country local business papers like to refer to as a "knowledge hub" for the world.

中國工人的教育水平也遠勝於印度和印尼的工人。上月，印度教育慈善機構Pratham在一項年度調查中發現，在接受調查的印度五年級學生中，大部分學生不會讀二年級的課本，數學水平也很差。總而言之，對於這個本土財經媒體喜歡自稱爲世界“知識中心”的國家，這項調查向我們呈現了一幅黯淡的畫面。

譯者:何黎