臺灣電子產業轉型面臨考驗 Taiwan faces a testing transition

For many years, Taiwan has prospered as a vital link in the global supply chain. Its electronics companies, which account for 40 per cent of exports and 15 per cent of gross domestic product, have assembled phones, computers and other gadgets for successful western brands such as Apple.

臺灣作爲全球供應鏈中至關重要的一環，多年來蓬勃發展。臺灣電子企業——佔本島出口的40%、GDP的15%——爲蘋果(Apple)等知名的西方品牌組裝手機、電腦及其他電子設備。

More recently, they have done even better by expanding into China, both as a market and as a base for their factories — combining Taiwanese manufacturing efficiency with the mainland’s low labour costs.

近些年，通過向中國大陸擴張，將臺灣製造業的效率與中國大陸的低勞動力成本相結合，臺灣的電子企業發展得更好了。中國大陸既是它們產品的市場，也是它們的生產基地。

Now that model is unravelling. Chinese demand is slowing along with the economy and Beijing is rapidly building up a domestic electronics industry, turning itself from a customer into a competitor. While this is a threat to all of Asia’s regional economies, Taiwan is uniquely exposed because of its dependence on the technology sector and the closeness of its cross-straits ties.

但如今，這種模式正在瓦解。中國的需求正在同經濟增速一道放緩，而且北京方面正在迅速打造自己的電子產業，將大陸由電子產品的消費地轉變爲這一行業中的競爭者。雖然這對亞洲所有區域經濟體都造成了威脅，但臺灣所受影響尤甚，因爲臺灣對科技業依賴度極高、與大陸的聯繫也極爲緊密。

By contrast, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea have more diversified economies that also produce cars, commodities, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. The Koreans, in particular, have built up a number of internationally recognised corporate brands.

相比之下，新加坡、馬來西亞和韓國都擁有更加多元化的經濟。除了電子產品，這些國家還生產汽車、大宗商品、藥品及消費品。尤其是韓國，已經打造了衆多國際知名的企業品牌。

Taiwan is trying to respond. Tsai Ing-wen, its incoming president, has publicly declared a need to shift industry’s emphasis from efficiency to innovation.

臺灣正在嘗試作出應對。即將上任的臺灣總統蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)已公開宣佈，需要將臺灣電子產業的專注點從效率轉移到創新上來。

This is a laudable aim, but it is easier said than done because it requires very different skills, both among managers and workers. It also runs the risk of alienating existing customers, who do not want their Taiwanese suppliers to compete with them by developing their own finished products and brands.

雖然這是一個值得稱道的目標，但說起來容易做起來難，因爲這需要非常不同的技能——對管理人員和工人都是如此。同時，還要冒着失去現有客戶的風險，後者不希望臺灣供應商通過開發自己的成品和品牌與他們競爭。

The takeover of Japan’s Sharp by Hon Hai Precision Industry, best known as the parent of Foxconn, will be a litmus test.

富士康(Foxconn)母公司臺灣鴻海精密(Hon Hai Precision Industry)對日本企業夏普(Sharp)的收購將成爲一塊試金石。（編者按：根據報道，鴻海精密已同意以3880億日元——合34.6億美元——收購夏普）

While the Taiwanese group sees this as an opportunity to gain advanced technology and go global, its big customers, led by Apple, might balk if Hon Hai tries to turn itself from component supplier to a producer of branded products in its own right.

這家臺資集團將收購夏普視爲獲得先進技術並走向全球的契機，但如果鴻海試圖從部件供應商轉型爲一家擁有自主品牌產品的生產商，以蘋果爲首的它的大客戶可能會從中作梗。

Even if that does not happen, a transformation of Taiwan’s electronics industry will take time. Meanwhile, its ongoing weakness continues to hurt the economy.

即使沒有發生這樣的事情，臺灣電子產業要實現轉型也尚需時日。與此同時，電子產業的持續疲軟將繼續傷及臺灣經濟。

Exports fell 12 per cent year-on-year in January and a further 7 per cent in February and the government recently downgraded its 2016 GDP growth forecast from 2.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent on the premise that exports would continue to fall all year. Domestic demand too is relatively sluggish, not helped by a housing market slump.

今年1月臺灣出口同比下降12%，2月又環比下滑19%。臺灣政府最近將2016年GDP增速預測從2.3%下調至1.5%——假設全年出口將持續下滑的話。在住房市場衰退的影響下，島內需求也相對不景氣。

Policymakers are doing what they can. The government is planning to roll out plans to cultivate other export sectors, such as biomedical products and artificial intelligence, through preferential tax rates and deregulation. And the central bank is easing monetary policy while trying to keep the currency as competitive as possible.

政策制定者正在儘可能想辦法。臺灣政府準備推出計劃，通過優惠稅率和放松管制培育其他出口行業，如生物醫藥產品和人工智能。臺灣央行正在放寬貨幣政策，同時儘可能保持新臺幣的競爭力。

After interest rate cuts of 12.5 basis points in both September and December 2015, the Central Bank of China, which only meets quarterly, cut again last week, taking the policy rate down to 1.5 per cent.

在2015年9月和12月分別降息12.5個基點後，每季度僅召開一次會議的臺灣央行(Central Bank of China) 3月初再次降息，將再貼現率下調至1.5%。

According to Medley Global Advisors, a macro research service owned by the Financial Times, it will keep lowering rates at every meeting this year unless export orders stabilise. Inflation, expected to average just 0.7 per cent this year, is not a concern — unless oil prices suddenly rocket.

英國《金融時報》旗下宏觀研究機構Medley Global Advisors預計，在今年餘下的三次季度會議上，臺灣央行每次都會宣佈降息——除非出口訂單企穩。預計今年平均下來將僅爲0.7%的通脹水平並不令人擔心——除非油價突然上竄。

Even a shock like that could be offset, at least partially, by steady intervention in the foreign exchange market, where the CBC is determined to keep the Taiwan dollar weak or, at a minimum, to see it strengthen more slowly than other local currencies and particularly the Korean won.

即使這樣的衝擊至少也可以通過對外匯市場持續的干預部分抵消掉，臺灣央行已決心保持新臺幣的弱勢，或者最起碼要比其他亞洲貨幣（尤其是韓元）升值更慢。

So far, that is a fight it is winning, with the Taiwan dollar up around 3 per cent against its US namesake this month compared with a 7 per cent rise for the won.

到目前爲止，臺灣正在這方面取得勝利，新臺幣兌美元匯率本月上漲約3%，相比之下，韓元兌美元匯率上漲了7%。

But while the central bank can keep macroeconomic policy broadly accommodative, the heavy lifting will have to be done by Taiwanese business and the transition to a future of greater innovation and higher margins will be neither easy nor swift.

雖然臺灣央行可以保持宏觀經濟政策總體寬鬆，但不得不挑起重擔的將是臺灣企業；要向更多創新、更高利潤率的未來轉型，這個過程既不會容易，也不會很快完成。