站於國門之外 美國須慎用金融武器
George Washington carried a musket. Franklin Roosevelt sent in heavy bombers. But for President Barack Obama, who must reconcile a weary American public with the demands of an increasingly unstable world, the armament of choice has been a weaponised form of finance.
To hear enthusiasts describe them, economic sanctions are trusty swords. By excluding hostile governments and their senior officials from western financial markets, America and its allies can pursue diplomacy with a streak of coercion. The number of US sanctions programmes has doubled in recent years, and they now target the personal assets of a rogue state’s political and economic elite.
在支持者口中，經濟制裁是值得信賴的利劍。通過把敵對政府及其高級官員擋在西方金融市場門外，美國及其盟國能夠在付諸外交努力的同時帶有一絲脅迫。美國製裁計劃的數量在近年翻倍，如今它們的矛頭指向流氓國家政商兩界精英的個人資產。Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary, has called this “a new battlefield for the United States, one that enables us to go after those who wish us harm without putting our troops in harm’s way”. Yet sanctions cannot solve as many problems as their champions appear to believe, and overusing them is risky.
美國財政部長傑克•盧(Jack Lew)形容這是“美國的一個新戰場，它讓我們打擊那些企圖損害我方的人，卻不用讓我們的部隊冒生命危險”。然而，與倡導者似乎抱有的信念相比，制裁解決不了那麼多問題，而且過度使用這個手段是有風險的。
While economic penalties deliver punishment, there is little evidence that they do much to change behaviour. Since Iranian banks were excluded from critical areas of the global financial infrastructure the ayatollahs have despatched negotiators to the nuclear bargaining table — but Iran has not accepted a deal. A defiant Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to enjoy popular support, and has become even more aggressive in Ukraine in recent weeks. The lesson is that these measures tend to be used against states that care less than most about access to US markets because they prioritise other issues over any jolt of economic pain.
儘管經濟處罰可以有效懲罰打擊對象，但幾乎沒有什麼證據表明，它們對於改變行爲有很大作用。伊朗的銀行被踢出全球金融基礎設施的關鍵領域之後，該國的精神領袖派出談判代表坐上了核談判桌，但伊朗迄今仍未接受任何協議。對制裁不買賬的俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)繼續深得民心，甚至在近幾周在烏克蘭變得更加咄咄逼人。這裏的教訓是，制裁對象往往是那些相對而言不怎麼關心進不進美國市場的國家，因爲它們更加註重其它問題，而不那麼在乎任何短期經濟痛苦。Furthermore, there have been excruciating consequences for western companies based in countries that are US allies. Last year, the US fined BNP Paribas nearly $9bn for failing to comply with US sanctions on Sudan, Iran and Cuba — a penalty that provoked outrage in France. American authorities are investigating whether Commerzbank violated US sanctions against Sudan, Iran and Cuba, as well as North Korea and Myanmar. If sanctions are imposed, they must be enforced. But this stokes anger in Europe, and could make it easier for Mr Putin to drive a wedge between America and the EU.
此外，對於總部設在美國盟國的西方企業，制裁帶來了極其痛苦的後果。去年美國政府對法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)罰款近90億美元，因爲該行未能遵守美國對蘇丹、伊朗和古巴的制裁——這一處罰在法國引起公憤。美國有關部門正在調查德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)是否違反了美國對蘇丹、伊朗和古巴，以及朝鮮和緬甸的制裁。如果實施制裁，就必須執行。但這在歐洲引發憤怒，並可能讓普京更容易離間美國和歐盟的關係。America’s first foreign policy priority is to manage relations with China. Here, the weaponisation of finance will never be a useful tool. The size of China’s economy makes it impossible to isolate, and Beijing has the means to fight back. China is also more than happy to expand trade and investment ties with partners seeking to protect themselves against punitive US action.
美國的首要外交政策目標是處理與中國的關係。在這裏，武器化金融永遠不會成爲一件有用工具。中國的經濟規模使其不可能被孤立，而且北京方面擁有反擊手段。中國也完全樂意與那些尋求保護自己不受美國懲罰行動影響的合作伙伴擴大經貿往來。Finally, Washington’s ability to deny others full access to the financial system is valuable mainly because there is no alternative to it. Exclude too many people from it, and you give your rivals an incentive to create one.
最後，美方讓別人無法完全進入金融體系的能力之所以有價值，主要原因是目前不存在替代金融體系。如果把太多人擋在門外，就會給競爭對手帶來動力，鼓勵他們創建一個替代金融體系。Then there is the dollar, which is used in about four-fifths of international trade finance. (The US economy, by contrast, accounts for less than a quarter of world economic output.) This enables America to settle its accounts in a currency it can produce at will. It also allows Washington to tie access to payment systems to compliance with US geopolitical goals. China would dearly like to strip Washington of its ability to use the dollar to impose its will. Many Europeans would like an end to dollar dominance, too. And rogue states such as Russia might respond to the American weaponisation of finance with newly aggressive cyber attacks on US financial institutions.
還有就是美元，目前美元用於大約五分之四的國際貿易融資（相比之下，美國經濟只佔世界經濟產出的不到四分之一）。這使得美國能夠用自己可以隨意生成的貨幣來結算賬目，也讓華盛頓方面將支付系統的准入與服從美國地緣政治目標掛鉤。中國將非常樂意剝奪美方利用美元強加美國意志的能力。很多歐洲人也希望終結美元的霸主地位。同時，針對美國的武器化金融手段，俄羅斯之類的流氓國家可能以針對美國金融機構的網絡攻擊作爲迴應。近來這些攻擊變得更加咄咄逼人了。In short, Washington has good reason to use financial as well as political and military muscle. But there is a clear limit to what it can accomplish, and the cost of using it will only increase.
簡言之，華盛頓方面有很好的理由在使用政治和軍事實力的同時，也運用金融“肌肉”。但金融武器的效力是存在明確侷限的，而且使用這種武器的成本只會增加。The writer is president of Eurasia Group and global research professor at New York University
本文作者是歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)總裁、紐約大學(New York University)全球研究教授
