中國的聯想能否成為下一個三星

One slips on so-so earnings – only $7bn in quarterly profits. The other jumps 3 per cent on a deal that will hurt its bottom line. It isn’t hard to see that the latter, Lenovo, has more market momentum than Samsung Electronics. Both make consumer electronics and tech hardware, from Lenovo’s new server business to Samsung’s chips. Might Lenovo become the next Samsung?

一隻股票因企業盈利表現一般而下滑——季度利潤只有70億美元。另一隻股票則因一筆將會損害公司利潤的交易而上漲3%。不難看出，後者——聯想(Lenovo)比三星電子(Samsung Electronics)的市場勢頭更強勁。從聯想的新伺服器業務，到三星的晶片業務，兩家公司都生產消費者電子產品和科技硬體。聯想會成為下一個三星嗎？

On a size basis, the comparison is still a bit ridiculous. Samsung’s market capitalisation is $160bn; Lenovo’s, $14bn. Samsung’s profits last quarter were 10 times Lenovo’s for the past year. Still, Lenovo’s deal this week to buy IBM’s X86 server business demonstrates that it still has the ambition it showed when it bought Big Blue’s PC business in 2004.

從規模上看，這樣的比較仍有些可笑。三星的市值是1600億美元；聯想則是140億美元。三星在最近一個季度的利潤是聯想過去一年利潤的10倍。不過，聯想近日收購IBM x86伺服器業務的交易表明，它仍具備其2004年收購“藍色巨人”個人電腦業務時所展現的雄心壯志。

The relatively low price paid – half of sales – reflects the IBM unit’s swing into loss last year. The business will knock about 5 per cent off Lenovo’s full-year earnings per share, including the slight dilution from the shares issued to IBM. The shares’ rise suggests that investors think it can use its lower cost structure to lift profits.

相對低廉的收購價格（相當於銷售額的一半），反映了IBM該項業務去年陷入虧損。該業務將令聯想的全年每股盈利削減5%，包括向IBM發行股票後造成的輕微稀釋。股價上漲表明，投資者認為聯想能以相對較低的成本結構來提高利潤。

Investors like bold tech stories. Samsung’s success was not born of timidity either. It has never bought in growth as Lenovo has, but has taken risks to move up the value chain. One of the reasons for its unexpectedly poor earnings in the latest quarter was a Won800bn ($738m) bonus paid to employees to mark the 20th anniversary of a strategy. Back then its chairman made a bonfire of 150,000 mobile phones – worth $50m – to make the point he wanted better. Now Samsung is trying to push into software – a challenge for a company staffed by hardware engineers.

投資者喜歡大膽的科技企業故事。三星的成功也並非來自怯懦。它從沒有像聯想那樣通過收購來實現增長，但它曾冒風險向價值鏈上游轉移。三星在最近一個季度意料之外的利潤下滑，其中一個原因是它向員工支付了8000億韓元（合7.38億美元）的獎金，以慶祝其20年前實施的一項戰略。當時三星主席將15萬部手機（總值5000萬美元）付之一炬，以此表達他期望打造更好產品的決心。現在三星正試圖打入軟體領域——對一家由硬體工程師組成的公司來說是個挑戰。

Samsung’s shares have risen 20 per cent a year, compounded, for the past two decades. Should Lenovo follow suit, it will take it a little over a decade to reach Samsung’s present size.

過去20年裡，三星股價年均複合上漲20%。聯想若能實現同樣的成就，它將需要10年多一點的時間達到三星目前的規模。

Lenovo has momentum on its side. But can it sustain profit growth on a foundation of low-cost manufacture of commodity hardware? Samsung invested aggressively to acquire an enduring competitive advantage – scale – in chips, and from there built a hugely profitable premium phone business. Lenovo needs to find a similar edge.

勢頭對聯想有利，但它能否以低成本製造平價商品化的硬體為基礎，維持利潤增長？三星通過大舉投資，獲得了晶片領域的持久競爭優勢——規模，在此基礎上建立了一個利潤豐厚的高階手機業務。聯想需要找到類似的競爭優勢。