人民幣走軟或給中國帶來流動性挑戰

The Chinese yuan's relentless appreciation may be drawing to a close for now, and that could end up creating a challenging liquidity squeeze later, according to UBS.

瑞銀(UBS)釋出報告稱，人民幣的持續升值可能會暫時告一段落，這可能會在晚些時候給中國帶來流動性緊張風險。

After hitting a series of record highs against the U.S. dollar earlier this year, the yuan last week fell by the most in three years. UBS said in a research note on Monday that the Chinese government appears to want increased flexibility in the yuan's exchange rate, rather than continued strengthening.

繼今年早些時候屢創紀錄新高後，人民幣兌美元上週下跌，創出三年來最大跌幅。瑞銀在週一的研究報告中稱，中國政府似乎想提高人民幣匯率的彈性，而不是讓人民幣繼續升值。

The yuan will likely remain in a range around 6.1 to the U.S. dollar this year, but with increased two-way volatility, it said.

瑞銀稱，人民幣匯率今年可能保持在圍繞1美元兌人民幣6.1元左右的區間，但雙向波動性將有所加劇。

'We think the recent weakening of the [yuan] is likely government-guided and may signal a change in China's exchange-rate policy,' UBS said.

瑞銀稱，我們認為近期人民幣的疲軟可能是受政府所引導，或許暗示中國匯率政策將出現調整。

China exercises strict control over the currency. The People's Bank of China sets a daily reference rate for the yuan, allowing it to trade 1% higher or lower each day. Last week the PBOC guided the currency lower through its reference rate.

中國對人民幣匯率實施嚴格的控制。中國央行每日為人民幣設定中間價，允許人民幣圍繞每日中間價上下1%波動。中國央行上週通過調整中間價引導人民幣走低。

The yuan's consistent appreciation has attracted inflows of 'hot money' seeking to profit from its rise and the big differential between yuan and dollar interest rates. This has complicated the Chinese government's efforts to curb credit growth, and UBS said the yuan's 2013 gain of 3% against a dollar that was strengthening against the currencies of its trading partners would also limit the strength of China's export recovery this year.

人民幣的不斷升值已吸引大量“熱錢”流入，因為投資者希望從人民幣升值以及人民幣和美元之間的巨大息差中獲利。這加大了中國政府控制信貸增長的難度。瑞銀稱，2013年全年人民幣兌美元升值了3%，而美元兌其貿易伙伴貨幣走強，這一因素也將限制中國出口今年的復甦勢頭。

Still, any move by China to limit the currency's appreciation is likely to also curb inflows of funds, and may even prompt a sudden and large reversal of those flows, UBS said.

不過瑞銀稱，如果中國採取抑制人民幣升值的舉措，可能也會遏制資本的流入，甚至可能引發資本流入局面的突然、急劇逆轉。

Hot money inflows--defined as net capital inflows not intended for foreign direct investment --accounted for more than $150 billion of the $433 billion increase in China's foreign-exchange reserves in 2013, UBS said. That includes capital inflows disguised as trade through, for example, the over-invoicing of exports, as well as increased foreign borrowing by Chinese companies and banks.

瑞銀稱，2013年中國增加外匯儲備約4,330億美元，其中超過1,500億美元來自“熱錢”流入（定義為 資本流入，不以對外直接投資為目的）。這其中包括了通過抬高出口發票金額等方式偽裝成貿易往來的資本流入，以及新增的中國企業和銀行對外借款。

UBS said a reversal of such funds may not necessarily result in a sharp credit tightening in China, but it could squeeze liquidity and create challenges for the central bank. 'The central bank needs to react quickly and decisively to offset such contraction either through open market operations, other liquidity-injection facilities, or by cutting the still high reserve requirements and relax rules on loan-to-deposit ratios,' it said.

瑞銀說，這種資金流動的逆轉不一定會導致中國信貸大幅收緊，但可能會造成流動性緊張並給中國央行帶來挑戰。瑞銀說，中國央行需要迅速、果斷地做出反應以抵消這種收緊影響，可以通過公開市場操作、流動性注入工具，或者降低仍然較高的準備金要求以及放鬆存貸比規定來實現。

However, it noted that such moves 'may not always be seamless and without glitch. As a result, we could see volatility in the interbank market and in overall credit growth.'

不過，瑞銀指出，這類手段並不總是完美、沒有缺陷的，所以我們可能會看到中國銀行間市場和總體信貸增長出現波動。