中國化工與中化合並意在先正達?

The anticipated megamerger of ChemChina and Sinochem implies there is a common thread linking China’s planned economy and countries with freer markets. China says it wants to reduce production capacity. Takeovers in mature industries in Europe and the US often have the same motive. But it would be a mistake to pursue parallels too far.

外界預料，中國化工(ChemChina)和中化集團(Sinochem)將進行合併。由此可見，中國的計劃經濟與擁有更自由市場的國家之間存在一個共同點。中國表達了“去產能”意願。在歐洲和美國的成熟工業中，收購也往往是出於同樣的動機。然而，如果你過度去追尋二者之間的相似之處，那就大錯特錯了。

An implicit aim of some consolidators in the west is to remove capacity so as to raise prices. Antitrust watchdogs may try to block aggressive efforts to reduce competition, but deal doers still pray that better pricing will lift margins, in tandem with cost cutting. That should be easier in basic industries such as steel, aluminium and chemicals. China has a lot of these, but it may balk at tightening output to raise prices, preferring to subsidise output that cannot make a decent return.

西方一些併購者的隱含目的是削減產能，以提高產品價格。反壟斷機構可能會嘗試阻止尋求減少競爭的激進併購，但交易方仍寄望於更好的定價輔之以成本削減措施將可提高利潤率。這在鋼鐵、鋁和化工等基礎工業中應該更容易做到。中國有很多此類工業，但它可能不願收縮生產來提高價格，而傾向於補貼效益不怎麼樣的生產活動。

Chinese media has been extolling government efforts to cut capacity. Easy to envisage the combination of ChemChina and Sinochem to create a group with sales of some $100bn as part of that plan, alongside a rumoured mash-up of state energy groups.

中國媒體一直在稱頌政府推進去產能的努力。中國化工和中化集團合併將組成一家年銷售額約1000億美元的集團，這種規模的合併，還有近期有關國有能源集團合併的傳言，很容易被想象成政府去產能計劃的一部分。