機器人將淘汰哪些工作 Work survival in the era of automation

Roy Harold Scherer Jr worked as a truck driver on the long haul to the top of his chosen profession. He later found film stardom under the name of Rock Hudson. Michael Dell, founder of US company Dell Computers, washed plates and was a waiter in Chinese and Mexican restaurants before he landed on a career in technology.

當過卡車司機的小羅伊•哈羅德•謝勒(Roy Harold Scherer Jr)，經過長期奮鬥，最終登上了自己選擇的職業的巔峯。他化名羅克•赫德森(Rock Hudson)，成爲家喻戶曉的電影明星。美國計算機公司戴爾(Dell)創始人邁克爾•戴爾(Michael Dell)在踏入科技業之前，曾在中餐館和墨西哥餐廳洗過盤子、當過服務生。

Such humdrum tasks once allowed ambitious people to earn cash en route to the top. For others, they were full-time jobs. But such low and semi-skilled jobs are increasingly in danger of being wiped out by the coming robotics age. Dish washing has long been automated and truck driving may be consigned to the rear-view mirror when driverless vehicles hit the streets.

這些枯燥乏味的工作，曾經使那些雄心勃勃的年輕人在成功之前得以賺錢餬口。對其他人而言，這是他們的全職工作。但這些低端、不需要多少技能的工作越來越面臨被即將到來的機器人時代淘汰的危險。洗盤子很久之前就實現了自動化，而等到無人駕駛汽車大量上市之時，卡車司機的工作可能也會被歷史淘汰。

This month’s Connected Business asks what workers will need to do to make their careers robot proof. But it is open to debate what this technological revolution will mean, especially for employers and workers in sectors requiring what are seen as a lower order of skills.

FT英文網站（）本月出版的特別報道《互聯商業》(Connected Business)提出了一個問題：勞動者需要做什麼，才能讓自己的職業不被機器人取代？但當下的科技革命意味着什麼——尤其是對那些被認爲只需較低階技能的行業裏的僱主和工人而言——仍有討論的餘地。

Tourism, traditionally viewed as a provider of low-paid, part-time, customer-facing jobs, is one industry experimenting with robots in human roles, such as receptionists.

傳統上被視爲提供低薪、兼職、面向客戶工作的旅遊業，正在嘗試利用機器人取代人工崗位，比如前臺接待員。

Stephen Page, a professor of tourism management at Bournemouth university in the UK, says wide adoption of robots will depend on how and where in the world they are used. A survey by TravelZoo, an online media company, found regional variations in human acceptance of robots. Chinese tourists were the most comfortable with the idea of their use in travel, French and Germans were the least at ease.

英國伯恩茅斯大學(Bournemouth university)旅遊管理專業教授斯蒂芬•佩奇(Stephen Page)表示，機器人的廣泛採用將取決於這個世界如何使用它們、將它們用在哪裏。在線媒體公司旅遊族(TravelZoo)所做的一項調查發現，不同地區的消費者對機器人的接受程度存在差異。中國遊客最能接受旅行中由機器人提供服務的想法，而法國和德國遊客感到最不適應。

Prof Page says: “We already know planes are flown by computer, so to a certain degree you can say a robot is flying it with human interaction to provide the safety element.”

佩奇教授表示：“我們早已知道飛機是由電腦操縱飛行，所以在某種程度上，你可以說是一個機器人在駕駛飛機，同時由人類駕駛員的介入提供安全保障。”

Transport is another sector where jobs are at risk. Rachel Aldred, senior lecturer in transport at Westminster university in London, says driverless buses could improve life for staff and passengers. Past welfare studies found bus driving was stressful and unhealthy because drivers are sedentary. Being a bus conductor, however, was better for health and a less stressful occupation.

另一個工作機會面臨淘汰風險的行業是交通運輸業。位於倫敦的威斯敏斯特大學(Westminster university)高級講師蕾切爾•奧爾德雷德(Rachel Aldred)表示，無人駕駛巴士可以造福巴士公司員工和乘客。先前在福利方面的研究發現，駕駛巴士是一項充滿壓力的工作，而且對身體健康有害，因爲駕駛員需要久坐。巴士售票員反倒是一個更有益於健康、壓力不那麼大的職業。

“Since then we’ve got rid of conductors but kept bus driver jobs,” Ms Aldred says. “So if you’re looking at employee health it is the wrong way round.

“自那以來，我們已經淘汰了售票員，但卻保留了巴士司機的工作，”奧爾德雷德說，“因此，從有益於員工健康的角度來看，這樣做恰恰搞反了。

“Potentially, having driverless buses opens the opportunity to reinstate those conductor jobs, and to improve service quality to passengers,” she says. “It will also improve employee health.”

“無人駕駛巴士有可能讓售票員崗位得到恢復，同時提升對乘客的服務質量，”她說，“也可以改善員工的健康狀況。”

She says a more negative outcome would be to get rid of the driver as well as the conductor.

她說，更爲不利的結局是司機和售票員雙雙被淘汰。

That choice could come down to how much money companies can save by employing robots and how unions and workers respond to such changes.

這種選擇將取決於使用機器人能爲巴士公司省下多少資金，以及工會和勞動者對這些變化作出的反應。

But Ms Aldred says automation may even provide more work for people. “Jobs do change all the time, just because you have a technological change doesn’t necessarily lead to a shrinkage in jobs, it is just different skills are required.”

但奧爾德雷德表示，自動化甚至可能爲人們提供更多工作。“工作的確無時無刻不在發生變化，僅僅是出現了一項技術變革未必會導致工作機會的減少，只是所需的技能不同了。”

Prof Page is also optimistic: “There is a role for human creativity, to create more forms of human employment so you’re constantly generating new areas in the job market.”

佩奇教授也持樂觀看法：“人類的創造力可以爲自身創造出更多就業形式，因此，可以在就業市場不斷開闢新領域。”

Ms Aldred adds that the way some jobs are classified as low skilled and low waged may need to change. Roles in call centres, shops and care require complex skills, for instance. “We need to improve the quality of these jobs, particularly if we’re going to have more of them.”

奧爾德雷德補充說，一些工作被歸類爲低技能、低薪水的情況可能需要改變。例如，呼叫中心、商場及護理的工作就需要複雜的技能。“我們需要提升這些工作的質量，特別是如果要增加這方面就業的話。”

States and education systems, meanwhile, may need to better prepare young people for the future. Infosys, a multinational technology company, last month published a study of youngsters aged 16-25 from nine developed and emerging economies. This found that a third of millennials thought that artificial intelligence would be a big cause of change in their future careers.

與此同時，各國政府以及教育系統可能需要讓年輕人對未來做出更充分的準備。上個月，跨國科技公司Infosys發佈了一項針對9個發達和新興經濟體16-25歲的年輕人的研究，結果發現，三分之一的千禧一代年輕人認爲，人工智能將成爲影響他們未來職業生涯的一大變數。

As Carl Benedikt Frey, co-director of the Oxford Martin programme on technology and employment, told the FT in a recent interview: “Any loss of equality [through fewer jobs] would be a failure of policy, not technology.”

牛津大學(Oxford)馬丁學院技術與就業項目聯席主任卡爾•貝內迪克特•弗雷(Carl Benedikt Frey)在最近一次採訪中對英國《金融時報》表示：“（工作機會減少帶來的）任何不公平都將是政策而非科技的失敗。”