黃金失去魅力的七個理由 Seven reasons why gold fails to sparkle for investment portfolios

The observation that gold has been a disappointing investment of late should come as no surprise to anyone in the investment world. The fact that this has occurred in the context of developments that would normally push gold prices higher is notable. But the most consequential hypothesis of all is that gold might be losing its traditional role in a diversified investment portfolio.

對於有評論稱近期的黃金投資令人失望，投資界的任何人應該都不會感到意外。值得注意的一個現象是，與此同時發生的一系列事件通常而言原本會推高金價。但在所有假設中，最重大的假設是黃金或許正失去其在多元化投資組合中的傳統地位。

To say gold has underwhelmed investors in the past couple of years is an understatement. It did not participate in the surge upwards in nearly all financial asset prices; and it has not provided protection in the more recent downturn in risk markets. Throughout this period, gold has not benefited from rock-bottom interest rates that compensated for one of its main disadvantages as a financial holding — namely, that gold holders do not earn any interest or dividend payments. It has also shown an unusual lack of sensitivity to multiple geopolitical shocks, Greek-related concerns about the single European currency, and the vast injection of liquidity by central banks.

說過去幾年黃金讓投資者感到失望，算是輕描淡寫了。當幾乎所有金融資產價格都在飆升時，它沒有參與；而當風險市場最近出現回落時，它沒有提供避險保障。低利率可以彌補黃金作爲金融資產的一個主要缺點——黃金持有者不會獲得任何利息或股息支付，但在這段時期裏，黃金並沒有從極低的利率中受益。而且對於地緣政治的多次衝擊，希臘危機引起的對歐洲單一貨幣的擔憂，以及各央行大量注入流動性，黃金的表現都異常缺乏敏感性。

The performance of gold has been so dreary as to encourage a growing number of hedge funds to bet against the asset, notwithstanding its price decline of 8 per cent year to date (and 16 per cent over the past 12 months). Indeed, positioning reports point to large shorts.

黃金的表現實在令人沮喪，於是鼓勵了越來越多的對衝基金押注於金價下跌，儘管今年到目前爲止金價已下跌8%（過去12個月下跌了16%）。事實上，持倉報告已指向大規模做空。

Several reasons may be advanced to explain these historical anomalies. They suggest that while cyclical factors have played a role, the main drivers are much more structural and secular in nature.

或許可提出幾個原因來解釋這一歷史性的異常現象。從這幾個原因看，雖然週期性因素髮揮了作用，但主要驅動力遠更具有結構性，以及長期性。

First, investors have found more direct ways to express their views about the future, particularly in a world in which central banks have had such an important influence on asset prices — from the explosion in equity exchange traded funds globally to the deepening of interest rate and credit products.

首先，投資者已經找到了更直接的方式來表達他們對未來的看法，從交易所交易基金(ETF)出現全球性爆發，到利率和信貸產品深化。在央行對資產價格具有重大影響的當今世界尤其如此。

Second, gold has become a lot less attractive to investors as a result of the lack of meaningful inflationary pressures. It has also suffered from the more general decline in interest in commodities among institutional and retail investors, due in part to slower global growth.

其次，由於缺乏切實通脹壓力，黃金對投資者的吸引力已經小了很多。此外，部分受到全球經濟增長放緩的影響，機構和散戶投資者對大宗商品的興趣普遍下降，黃金也受到波及。

Third, gold faces the growing risk of lower demand from central banks, once deemed reliable core holders. Part of this is driven by the fall in holdings of international reserves by the emerging world, particularly as they try to cope with the impact of lower commodity prices.

第三，黃金還面臨着一個越來越大的風險，即央行需求降低，央行曾被認爲是可靠的核心持有者。這部分是受到新興經濟體所持國際儲備下跌的影響，特別是當它們試圖應對大宗商品價格走低時。

Fourth, as historical correlations have broken down, the analytical case for investing in gold has been increasingly challenged. In particular, prices have failed to respond positively to some notable geopolitical shocks, eroding the metal’s attraction as a diversifier and risk mitigator.

第四，隨着歷史關聯性斷裂，投資黃金的理由日益受到挑戰。特別是金價沒能對一些顯著的地緣政治衝擊作出積極響應，削弱了黃金在分散投資和風險緩衝方面的吸引力。

Fifth, the main drivers of most asset prices — liquidity injection by central banks and deployment of some of the large corporate cash holdings via dividends, buybacks and M&A activity — have not spilled over in any meaningful way to gold; neither directly through reallocation of investor funds due to price movements, nor indirectly due to concerns that all this liquidity would fuel inflation.

第五，大部分資產價格的主要驅動力——央行注入的流動性，以及部分大企業通過分紅、回購以及併購對所持現金進行部署——沒有對黃金產生任何有意義的影響。既沒有由於價格變動影響投資者的資金配置而直接產生影響，也沒有因爲人們擔心這麼多流動性會加劇通脹而間接產生影響。

Sixth, the size of the demand response induced by the lower prices — from jewellery and other physical uses of gold — is too small to offset the erosion of investor interest.

第六，因爲金價降低而增加的珠寶等黃金製品需求太小，不足以抵消投資者興趣的減弱。

Finally, there is the price level argument. Before its recent lacklustre performance, the price had surged (eg, at one stage it had risen more than $1,000 an ounce from its November 2008 level of $700). Thus, it is the earlier price move that could be deemed unusual and excessive.

最後一個理由是價格水平。在近期表現低迷之前，金價曾出現飆升（舉個例子，金價一度漲至比2008年11月的每盎司700美元高出1000美元）。因此可以認爲之前那輪金價變動纔是異常和過度的。

Assessing the cyclical versus secular/structural balance of these seven factors, it is hard not to conclude that gold may well be experiencing an erosion in its positioning as a core holding in diversified institutional and retail investment portfolios. The more this happens, the more enticing it will be for “fast money” to short the metal as a way of inducing even greater sales by disappointed core holders.

權衡這七個因素的週期性成分與長期結構性成分，很難不得出一個結論：黃金作爲機構和散戶多樣化投資組合中核心資產的這一定位，很可能正在受到削弱。而越是如此，黃金就越能吸引“快錢”來做空，從而引誘失望的核心持有者進一步拋售。

This situation is unlikely to change soon but it need not be terminal. A shift would probably require a broader normalisation of financial markets, including a diminution in the direct and indirect role of central banks in determining asset prices and their correlations. Until that happens, the glittering metal is likely to continue to languish.

這種情況不太可能很快改變，但它未必已成定局。要想出現轉變，很可能需要金融市場全面正常化，包括降低央行在決定資產價格及資產價格相關性方面的直接和間接作用。在此之前，黃金這一閃閃發光的金屬可能會繼續疲軟。