iPhone 6S可能爲刺激銷售放棄殺手鐗

Little interest in the next iPhone's purported Force Touch feature combined with weak demand in China could sink iPhone sales in the fourth quarter, says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

分析師郭明池稱，下一代iPhone的壓感觸控功能(Force Touch)在中國遭到了冷遇，國內需求低，這很可能會導致iPhone第四季度銷量下滑。

Reportedly slated for the iPhone 6S, Force Touch makes the screen pressure-sensitive so it responds to how you press on the surface and is already in use on the the MacBook and Apple Watch. But Force Touch has failed to generate much excitement among MacBook and Apple Watch owners, Kuo said in an investors note picked up on Tuesday by Taiwanese news site Apple Daily. So Force Touch may not be "the most significant change to the iPhone's interface to date" that the analyst claimed it would be in an April report, according to Kuo's latest opinion.

據稱，具備壓感觸控功能的iPhone 6S可以感知用戶按壓表面的不同力度，從而調出不同的對應功能。而這項技術已經在MacBook和Apple Watch上得到了應用。但是本週二的臺灣蘋果日報中刊登了郭明池的這樣一番評價：壓感觸控並沒有在MacBook和Apple Watch的用戶激起很大的反響。與今年4月份郭明池爆料iPhone 6S將支持Force Touch的時候態度明顯不同，他現在並不認爲壓感觸控是“蘋果iOS迄今爲止最大的變革”了。

Expected to be released in September, the next iPhone comes in an "off-year" for Apple. That means the new handset will likely offer a few enhancements and one significant new feature. But this year's phone won't be considered a major upgrade as was last year's big-screened iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. If Force Touch doesn't prove to be a killer feature for the new iPhone, eXisting iPhone users may see little reason to upgrade. That could push overall iPhone sales down in the fourth quarter, according to Kuo.

預計在九月份發佈的下一代iPhone可謂是“生不逢時”。一般來說，新機除了會做一些性能提升外，更重要的是會帶來一項重要的新功能。但是今年的iPhone相比去年發佈的大屏幕iPhone6和 IPhone6 Plus而言，恐怕不足以吸引用戶升級購買。郭明池認爲，如果Force Touch對於新的iPhone來說確實不能算作殺手級特性的話，iPhone手機的當前用戶幾乎沒有理由購買新機，這也將導致iPhone的銷量在第四季度直線下跌。

Another factor that Kuo believes will hurt fourth-quarter iPhone sales is China. Still the world's largest smartphone market, China is seeing weaker demand for mobile phones as the market has become more saturated. Apple has been hit by the downturn, losing its spot as the No. 1 smartphone seller in China and now in third place behind local vendors Xiaomi and Huawei, according to research firm Canalys. Even Apple CEO Tim Cook has acknowledged that China could see some "speed bumps" because of economic woes.

郭明池認爲會損害iPhone第四季度銷量的另一因素就是中國。中國當前仍是世界上最大的智能手機市場，但其手機市場已經趨於飽和，用戶對於手機的需求正在減弱。據調研公司Canalys的數據顯示，蘋果公司已經開始衰退了，當前已失去了在中國智能手機銷量第一的地位，位於本土品牌小米和華爲之後，屈居第三。甚至蘋果的CEO Tim Cook都已經承認，由於經濟低迷，中國市場的發展已經進入了“減速帶”。

With no real killer feature for the new iPhone and sluggish demand in China, Kuo said that iPhone sales in the fourth quarter could fall to between 65 million and 75 million. If that forecast isn't on the higher side, then sales would actually drop below the record 74.5 million iPhones reported in the same quarter in 2014. That would mark the first time that quarterly iPhone sales dropped on a year-to-year basis.

郭明池預測，由於新版iPhone沒有真正的殺手級特性，而中國市場需求也不旺盛，iPhone在第四季度的銷售可能會跌至6500-7500萬部左右。照此估計，iPhone的銷量將低於去年同期蘋果7450萬部的驕人成績，也將面臨其歷史上第一次銷量下滑。

Nothing definitive is known about the next iPhone at this point. Apple is expected to stick with the same screen sizes introduced last year -- one iPhone with a 4.8-inch screen and a larger edition with a 5.5-inch display. Kuo has suggested that the new phones will be powered by the Samsung-produced A9 processor, the successor to the current A8 chip. Combine that with 2GB of RAM, and the next iPhones would offer a hefty bump in power and speed over the iPhone 6.

截止目前，關於新版iPhone的任何消息均不能保證確切。蘋果公司很可能繼續延續去年發佈的屏幕尺寸版本：一款4.8英寸，同時發佈一版5.5英寸屏幕的iPhone。郭明池預測新版iPhone將會採用三星製造的A9處理器，以代替當前的A8芯片。再結合2GB的RAM存儲器，下一代iPhone將比iPhone6在運行和速度方面都有一個飛躍。