谷歌與蘋果:移動大戰纔剛剛開始

Sebastian Thrun, former head of the Google X — the advanced projects lab set up to make big bets on the future — knows all about technological ambition. Driverless cars, high-altitude balloons providing internet access and contact lenses that monitor blood sugar levels were all products that flowered under his leadership.

谷歌(Google)成立先進項目實驗室Google X是爲了對未來進行重大的投注。該實驗室前負責人塞巴斯蒂安·特倫(Sebastian Thrun)深諳什麼纔是科技雄心。無人駕駛汽車、提供互聯網接入的高空輕氣球以及監測血糖水平的隱形眼鏡，都曾是他領導的研發項目。

But when it comes to the Android operating system for mobile devices, Mr Thrun says this is not the time for Google to pursue bold new visions. With smartphone wars well advanced, he believes it is now all about smaller incremental advances, as Apple and Google slug it out for global advantage.

但對於面向移動設備的Android操作系統，特倫說，現在不是谷歌追求大膽新願景的時候。隨着智能手機的競爭不斷深化，隨着蘋果(Apple)和谷歌激烈爭奪全球優勢，他認爲，現在的關鍵在於小步快跑。

"You can have great visions, but change takes implementation, it takes small steps," Mr Thrun said last week, after watching the opening presentation at Google I/O, the group's annual technology showcase event. "What I saw was Android playing out, Android getting into the mature phase."

在看過上週谷歌年度科技展示大會(Google I/O)的開幕演講後，特倫說："你可以有偉大的願景，但改變需要執行，需要走小步……我看到的是Android正在竭盡全力，正在進入成熟階段。"

Sameer Iyengar, a former Google employee who is now a co-founder of app maker Beautylish, questioned whether Google was being bold enough in laying out its tech vision: "The thought leadership is maybe absent, compared to where it was in the past," he suggested.

谷歌前員工、現爲應用(app)製造商Beautylish聯合創始人的薩米爾·延加(Sameer Iyengar)，質疑谷歌在闡述其科技願景方面有足夠的膽略："與過去相比，思想領導力可能相對缺乏，"他提出。

However, he credited Google with taking a lead in at least one area: machine learning — a form of artificial intelligence that the company says is being used to enhance its mobile software and make apps on Android work better.

然而，他認爲值得肯定的是，谷歌至少在一個領域保持領先地位：機器學習。該公司稱，這種人工智能正被用於增強移動設備軟件，並使Android平臺上的應用更好運行。

Applications of AI were among the most eye-catching demonstrations at last week's event, underlining Google's aims of using its massive computing base and advanced algorithms to make its services far more relevant and useful.

人工智能的應用是上週大會上最受關注的演示之一，凸顯谷歌的目標，即利用龐大計算能力和先進算法，使其服務更具相關性和有用性。

On at least one measure, Android has been a spectacular success. Conceived by Google as a defensive strategy to ensure its internet services were not locked out of mobile handsets by companies such as Apple or Microsoft, the software has turned into the dominant smartphone platform, accounting for about 80 per cent of the market worldwide.

至少從一個方面衡量，Android已經是一個巨大的成功。當初谷歌研發Android系統是作爲一種防禦性策略，目的是確保其互聯網服務不被蘋果或者微軟(Microsoft)等公司的移動設備擋在門外。如今該軟件已成爲占主導地位的智能手機平臺，佔全球市場約80%的份額。

But there is a hard slog ahead. With a disparate group of handset makers in the Android camp, the platform has struggled to match the more polished set of services and hardware that Apple has built around the iPhone, such as Apple Pay and, more recently, Watch.

但前方的路也很艱難。由於Android陣營包括形形色色的手機制造商，該平臺一直難以趕上蘋果圍繞iPhone打造的、更爲精緻的服務和硬件，如Apple Pay以及最近的蘋果手錶(Apple Watch)。

Also, to make money, Google needs to reinforce the prominent position of its own services at a time when the open-source Android world threatens to break apart. Hardware makers, ranging from Amazon to Xiaomi, are now looking to use Android as a platform for their own app stores and services — displacing Google.

此外，爲了創收，谷歌需要在開放源的Android世界有分裂危險之際，加強自身服務的突出地位。從亞馬遜(Amazon)到小米(Xiaomi)，很多硬件製造商正希望利用Android作爲自己應用商店和服務的平臺，取代谷歌。

"They have to make sure Android doesn't just degenerate into low-end devices and fragmentation," says Al Hilwa, an analyst at IDC, the tech research firm.

科技研究公司IDC的分析師阿爾·希爾瓦(Al Hilwa)說："他們必須確保Android不會就此淪爲低端設備和割據狀態。"

If that were not enough, Google has to deal with the consequences of its own, expansive vision. This has taken Android into a broad array of new markets, from "smart" home appliances to cars. "Where Apple is always very focused on a few product categories, Google wants to be in everything," says Jan Dawson of Jackdaw Research. "It's hard for Google to keep making meaningful progress across all those different domains and keep up with Apple."

如果這些還不夠，谷歌還必須應對其廣闊願景帶來的後果。這一願景已將Android帶入了一系列新市場，從"智能"家電到汽車。"蘋果永遠緊緊聚焦於幾種產品類別，而谷歌什麼都想涉獵，"Jackdaw Research的簡·道森(Jan Dawson)表示。"谷歌很難在所有這些不同領域都不斷取得有意義的進展，趕上蘋果。"

Winning the hearts and minds of app developers — the focus of Google I/O last week, and the rival Apple developer conference next week — has become a key part of the battle. Creating a marketplace where app developers can make money has been at the heart of Apple's formula for encouraging them to do their best work first for its mobile devices.

贏得應用開發者的擁護和支持——上週Google I/O大會以及蘋果下週的開發者大會的主要焦點——已成爲這場競爭的關鍵部分。創建一個應用開發者能夠從中賺錢的市場，一直處於蘋果模式的核心，爲的是鼓勵他們首先盡心盡力爲蘋果的移動設備開發出最好的應用。

But the Android world has been catching up. For most developers, the calculation is now finely balanced. Like many, Mr Iyengar says his app reaches far more people on Android devices but, on an individual basis, iOS customers are more profitable for his company.

但是，Android世界在緊緊追趕。對大多數開發者來說，如今兩邊的份量差不多。和許多人一樣，Beautylish的延加稱，雖然其應用面向多得多的Android設備用戶，但就每個用戶而言，iOS用戶爲其公司帶來的利潤更多。

Google's Play Store had been gaining ground as a source of income for developers, but the momentum in recent months turned back to Apple. Tero Kuittinen, managing director of Magid Associates, a consultancy, and an adviser to several gaming companies, says app makers were "taken aback" by the shift, which followed the launch of larger iPhones. However, according to at least some industry estimates, the sheer weight of numbers is finally starting to play in Android's favour — even if Google is not the only beneficiary.

谷歌的Play Store作爲開發者的收入來源一度取得進展，但最近幾個月勢頭又轉回了蘋果。諮詢公司Magid Associates董事總經理、爲幾家博彩公司提供諮詢的特羅·庫伊蒂寧(Tero Kuittinen)說，這一轉變是在蘋果推出更大的新款iPhone之後發生的，應用製造商對這種轉變"大吃一驚"。然而，至少某些行業評估顯示，數量優勢終於開始有利於Android——即使谷歌不是唯一的受益者。

Apple's App Store accounts for around 45 per cent of the revenue that developers make from apps, compared to 29 per cent for Google's Play, according to Digi-Capital. But, counting in the income from handsets in China where Google's apps are blocked — meaning it makes no money — pushes the overall Android share to 52 per cent, Digi-Capital calculates.

精品投資銀行Digi-Capital的數據顯示，開發者從應用獲得的營收中，約45%來自蘋果App Store，29%來自谷歌Play Store。但是，根據Digi-Capital的統計，若加上來自中國的手機的收入（谷歌的應用在中國遭封鎖，意味着谷歌本身無錢可賺），Android的整體市場份額將升至52%。

Last week, matching and trying to surpass Apple was a strong subtext of Google's pitch to developers. New features included Android Pay, a rival to Apple Pay and a fresh attempt to break into mobile payments after the disappointment of Google Wallet.

上週，趕上並試圖超越蘋果是谷歌傳遞給開發者的強大潛臺詞。新的功能包括與Apple Pay競爭的Android Pay，這是自Google Wallet令人失望之後谷歌進軍移動支付領域的新嘗試。

A new Google Photos app, with the promise of software that can automatically organise libraries of pictures, also echoed capabilities that are already offered by Apple.

一款承諾可自動整理照片圖庫的新款谷歌照片應用Google Photos，也呼應了蘋果早已提供的功能。

But in other areas, Google seemed unprepared. While smartwatches based on last year's Android Wear technology have been put in the shade by the recent launch of Apple Watch, Google had little new to show off in response. This was a sign that it is surrendering early leadership in wearables to Apple, according to Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Kantar Worldpanel.

但在其他領域，谷歌似乎毫無準備。雖然近期Apple Watch的推出使基於去年Android Wear技術發佈的智能手錶相形見絀，但谷歌沒有任何新技術作爲迴應。Kantar Worldpanel分析師卡羅琳娜·米拉內西(Carolina Milanesi)表示，這標誌着谷歌正向蘋果讓出可穿戴設備領域的早期領先地位。

Yet some of the latest attempts to extend the Android universe clearly play to Google's strengths. Its new photos app, for instance, offers free storage for an unlimited number of pictures, echoing the launch of Gmail, the company's free email service, in 2004, although the cost of storage has fallen greatly since then and has become less of a competitive differentiator.

然而，最近一些擴展Android世界的嘗試顯然有助於發揮谷歌的優勢。例如，谷歌新的照片應用可提供無限量的免費圖片存儲，呼應了2004年穀歌推出Gmail免費電子郵件服務之舉，儘管自那以來存儲成本已大幅降低，不再是那麼大的競爭差異化工具。

Sucking in large volumes of photos also presents a new opportunity for Google to add to its already substantial mass of data about users. Company executives say they have not made plans to scan the pictures for advertising purposes but make no secret of the fact that a person's photo library comprises a highly valuable source of information about them.

吸收海量的照片也爲谷歌提供了新的機遇，可擴大其已擁有的大量用戶數據。谷歌高管表示，他們並沒有爲廣告目的而掃描圖片的計劃，但並不掩飾這樣一個事實，即一個人的照片庫包含有關他/她的極有價值的信息。

Meanwhile, to improve the experience of using Android handsets in emerging markets, where low-end hardware and unreliable networks often hamper performance, Google has announced new ways of using its services offline. These included the ability to view maps and directions while not connected.

同時，爲了改善在新興市場中（低端硬件和不穩定的網絡經常妨礙性能）使用Android手機的體驗，Google發佈了離線使用其服務的新方法，包括在沒有網絡連接的情況下查看地圖和導航。

They all represent attempts by Google to shift more of the value to its own services rather than embed it in the Android open-source software, says Mr Hilwa — a way to ensure that Google remains at the centre of the Android universe.

IDC的希爾瓦說，這些都表明谷歌試圖將更多的價值轉移到自己的服務中，而非嵌入在開放源代碼的Android軟件中，以此確保谷歌始終處於Android世界的中心。