阿里巴巴股價 向上走向下走

Investors seem to have fallen out of love with the Chinese tech giant after a string of bad news this year that included the company’s very public skirmish with a Chinese regulator. Alibaba is no longer the invincible Chinese e-commerce star that stockbrokers from Manhattan to Des Moines thought it was. Or is it?

繼一系列有關阿里巴巴的負面新聞（包括公開叫板國家工商總局）出現之後，投資者似乎已經對這家中國科技巨頭的熱情轉冷。從美國東岸的曼哈頓到中西部的得梅因，股票經紀人眼中，阿里巴巴已不再是所向披靡的中國電子商務明星。

For now the questions are, Can China’s most powerful e-commerce company recover some of its swagger from last fall? Can it put the criticism of fake products and a weak quarter behind it? Or will Jack Ma & Co. be left explaining, again, how they perfectly timed the market’s top when staging an IPO?

現在的問題是，作爲中國最有影響力的電商企業，阿里巴巴還能從去年秋天誇張的造勢中重振雄風嗎？它能擺脫外界批評淘寶賣假貨以及季度業績低迷的影響嗎？還是說，馬雲得再度解釋一下，阿里巴巴在籌備IPO的過程中是怎樣湊巧完美地趕上了市場高點？

You can turn to a couple places for answers. There’s a gaggle of analysts who opine on Alibaba’s fortunes for a living. Unfortunately, Wall Street analysts don’t have a strong record when it comes to predicting the future—and nine out of ten of them don’t even live in China, where Alibaba does almost all of its business.

你可以從中美兩地入手尋找答案。美國有一大羣分析師就靠評估阿里謀生。但可惜的是，華爾街分析師預測未來的記錄並不出色，而且他們十有八九都不住在中國，而阿里巴巴幾乎所有的業務都在中國。

This brings up an important point. The great stock-picker Peter Lynch said you should buy what you know. Warren Buffett, probably the best investor in the history of man, follows a similar philosophy—sticking to U.S. businesses he understands like Coca-Cola and GEICO. Do many people in the United States understand Alibaba’s core businesses Taobao, Tmall, and Alipay? Of course not. Living in the U.S. makes tracking Alibaba almost as hard as drinking as much Cherry Coke as Buffett in a day.

那麼重點來了。選股大師彼得o林奇說過，要買自己瞭解的股票。堪稱史上最佳投資者的沃倫o巴菲特也遵循類似的投資哲學，即只投資自己看得懂的美國公司，比如可口可樂和美國政府僱員保險公司。可是有多少美國人瞭解淘寶、天貓和支付寶這些阿里巴巴的核心業務呢？沒幾個。在美國追蹤阿里巴巴動向的難度，幾乎不亞於每天暢飲和巴菲特一樣多的櫻桃可樂。

That’s when it pays to be local. To have boots on the ground, like the military says.

這就是地利。就像軍事上所說的，要紮根地面。

That’s why I decided to stage an informal poll recently about Alibaba. I was curious what some of the smartest business people I know in China think about the company’s (and stock’s) prospects. Last week I sent an email to 31 businesspeople and consultants I know working in China, asking a simple question: where do you think Alibaba’s stock is going for the rest of 2015? Up? Down? Or back down to its IPO level?

出於這個原因，最近我決定對阿里巴巴進行一次非正式調查。在中國，我認識一些絕頂聰明的商界人士，我很想知道他們對阿里巴巴（及其股票）的前景有何看法。上週，我向31位在中國工作的生意人以及諮詢顧問發出了電子郵件，其中只有一個簡單的問題：你認爲餘下這年阿里巴巴的股價將何去何從？會漲？會跌？還是迴歸發行價？

Some of these people run businesses. Others track them as consultants. Some are Chinese, others are foreigners who have been working in China for years. I didn’t consider anyone an Alibaba expert. But all know something about Alibaba’s prospects thanks to osmosis.

在這些人中，有一部分是企業經營者，另一部分則從事諮詢工作並對前者進行追蹤；有一些是中國人，還有一些是在華工作多年的外國人。我覺得他們沒有哪一位對阿里巴巴瞭如指掌。但通過耳濡目染，他們對阿里巴巴的前景都有一些見解。

Most of those who responded wanted to be clear about why they picked their answer. For example, one person recommended shorting the stock, reasoning that while people may be excited about Alibaba expanding the U.S. by opening a cloud service in Silicon Valley, that might only gloss over Alibaba’s struggles before the stock continues its downslide.

大多數做出迴應的人都解釋了自己爲何會這樣回答。比如說，一位受訪者建議做空阿里巴巴，原因是儘管該公司通過硅谷雲服務中心在美擴張也能算是興奮點，但此舉或許只是爲了給股價持續滑坡前所遇到的困境打掩護 。

Of the 31 people I asked about BABA, I got 10 responses. Of those, four said the stock would rise by the end of the year. Six thought it would continue falling for the rest of 2015 (one said it would make its way all the way back to $68 a share—its September IPO listing price). It’s not a statistically significant sample by any means. That wasn’t the point. The point was to glean a little about what top business people in China, who work far outside Wall Street’s spin-zone and are surrounded by Alibaba’s products and platforms everyday, think of the stock’s (and company’s) chances.

在我詢問的這31人中，有10位回覆了我的郵件。其中4位預計，到年底阿里巴巴的股價將上漲。另外6位認爲今年剩餘時間裏這隻股票將繼續下跌（當中一位預測阿里巴巴的股價將一路跌回68美元，也就是去年9月份的發行價）。從統計學角度，這樣的調查樣本不具意義。但這不是重點。重點是，我們可以藉此一窺中國商界高層對這隻股票（和這家公司）的預期，他們遠離華爾街，而且每天都被阿里巴巴的產品和平臺所包圍。

Those who thought the stock is headed down had a couple reasons for thinking so. The first was that the excitement around Alibaba has evaporated. The IPO that had Idahoans talking about Taobao is a distant memory. Alibaba is back to being another business listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Its been months since David Faber flew to Hangzhou for an exclusive interview with Jack Ma. Things can’t stay in the spotlight forever.

那幾位看跌人士提出了一些理由。首先，圍繞阿里巴巴的興奮情緒已經蕩然無存。阿里巴巴IPO時，連美國遠離金融中心的愛達荷州人都會把淘寶作爲話題，現在這已成爲回憶。如今的阿里巴巴只是一家紐交所上市公司。美國CNBC主持人曾飛到杭州去專訪馬雲，但這也已經是幾個月之前的事了。沒有什麼事物能永遠停留在聚光燈下。

They gave a second reason. Alibaba is fighting more aggressively by the day with Tencent Holdings Ltd TCEHY -2.09% , China’s other tech giant whose WeChat network dominates social networking in the country and is encroaching more and more on Alibaba’s turf. Last year Tencent invested $215 million into JD 1.68% , Alibaba’s e-commerce rival. Alibaba is spending furiously to compete against Tencent, but some of those investments are coming at eye-watering valuations. Beyond the weak quarterly results headlines and squabbles with regulators, Alibaba faces real headwinds, the respondents said.

另外，他們的第二條理由是，爲了和騰訊抗衡，阿里巴巴的做法日趨激進。作爲中國另一科技巨頭，騰訊旗下的微信在國內社交網絡中處於主導地位，而且騰訊還在不斷挑戰阿里巴巴的地盤。去年，騰訊向阿里巴巴在電商市場的對手京東投資2.15億美元。阿里巴巴正斥巨資和騰訊競爭，但其中一些投資對象的估值水平讓人慾哭無淚。這幾位受訪者指出，除了疲軟的季度業績以及和工商總局的口角，阿里巴巴面對的是實實在在的阻力。

Of those who thought BABA would rise, the strength of the business was a common reason given. The company commands four-fifths of the e-commerce market in China, which happens to be the world’s largest at $400 billion and is growing 25% a year. Alipay is the country’s dominant online payment system. Tmall is such a strong platform in China that Alibaba rival AMZN 0.86% just opened its own store there.

而對阿里巴巴看漲的受訪者，則普遍將原因歸結於阿里的業務實力。該公司佔有中國五分之四的電商市場，而後者的規模高達4000億美元，居全球之首，而且還在以每年25%的速度增長。支付寶是中國在線支付領域的主導者。天貓在國內實力非凡，以至於阿里巴巴的對手亞馬遜不久之前都在天貓上開了店。

Another reason: Alibaba has cherry-picked top talent in China, one respondent said. Alibaba’s massive spending on startups in China and overseas is bringing key executives into the fold. Last year it acquired UCWeb, a Chinese mobile web browsing company with respected executives like its CEO Yu Yongfu, in the country’s biggest Internet deal.

還有一位受訪者表示，另一個原因是阿里巴巴擁有中國最頂尖的人才。它把鉅額資金投入國內外的初創企業，從而網羅了這些公司的核心高管。去年，阿里巴巴收購了移動瀏覽器公司UCWeb，創下了互聯網行業併購規模之最，而UCWeb當時的首席執行官俞永福等高層在業內頗受敬重。

No-one can divine where Alibaba ends the year. But if you wanna get close, you might start by listening to the business people who are surrounded by Alibaba every day.

今年底阿里巴巴的股價將收於多少，沒人能未卜先知。不過，如果大家想讓自己的預期更接近實際水平，或許可以先聽聽那些每日接觸阿里巴巴的商界人士的意見。