硅谷正經歷新一輪互聯網泡沫?
With startups fetching valuations as high as $18 billion, one persistent question remains: Is cash-laden Silicon Valley in the throes of another bubble? Fortune sought out five tech folks at last night’s 40 Under 40 party in San Francisco on Thursday night for more insight. Their answers may surprise you.
隨着科技業初創公司的總估值達到驚人的180億美元，有一個問題始終揮之不去：現金充盈的硅谷是否正在經歷另一場泡沫？上週四晚，在舊金山的“40位40歲以下商界精英”的聚會上，《財富》（Fortune）諮詢了其中五位科技專家對此的觀點。他們的回答也許會讓你吃驚。
Marc Benioff
馬克·貝尼奧夫CEO,
首席執行官
“It’s not a tech bubble. It’s the biggest wave of innovation in the history of the world. It’s a combining of unbelievable forces of cloud, social networks, mobility plus connected products.
“這不是科技泡沫，而是世界史上最大的創新浪潮。這是雲、社交網絡、移動性和聯網產品結合而產生的一股難以想象的強大力量。”A great example of that is Apple Pay, which I’ve been using today. I went to Walgreens, I put my phone right up against the Verifone receiver, and I did a transaction on Apple Pay. Apple Pay is an amazing new platform. It’s going to help create new companies. It’s going to create a new wave of infrastructure investments where all the point-of-sale systems are going to have to be replaced. And then it’s a huge accelerator for Apple.
“最好的一個例子就是蘋果支付(Apple Pay)，我今天還用了它。我去沃爾格林（Walgreens）買藥，把手機對準惠爾豐（Verifone）收款機，利用蘋果支付完成了一筆交易。蘋果支付是一個很棒的新平臺，會催生許多新公司。它將會引領一波新的基礎設施投資浪潮，所有的銷售終端系統都需要替換。此外，這對蘋果公司（Apple）來說也具有巨大的推動作用。”You can just think of that as a metaphor happening in our industry for something that one day doesn’t exist, and the next day it does and how it can change everything. Everything is changing, and there’s never been a more exciting time.”
“你可以把這看成我們行業的一個隱喻：一些本不存在的東西轉眼就出現了，然後就改變了一切。所有的一切都在改變，從未有過如此有趣的時代。”Joe Gebbia
喬·傑比亞Chief product officer and co-founder, Airbnb
房屋租賃服務商Airbnb公司聯合創始人兼首席產品官“It’s all cyclical, right? Just take a look at the stock market over the last 60 years. There’s a cycle involved. But we’re not in a tech bubble because companies are making revenues. And I think that was a major difference between what’s happening right now and what’s happening 14 years ago. Companies today are making real money.”
“這一切都是個循環，對吧？只要看看過去60年的股市就知道了，這其實是一個循環。但我們目前沒有遭遇科技泡沫，因爲科技公司正在獲取收入。我認爲現在和14年前發生的事情是有區別的。如今的公司正在賺取真金白銀。”Jess Lee
傑斯·李CEO and co-founder, Polyvore
Polyvore公司首席執行官和共同創始人“I do think we’re in a bubble. There are too many companies with no business model or no sustainable business model. I’m proud that we have one, but I think there’s going to be some kind of correction.”
“我確實認爲我們遭遇了科技泡沫。有太多公司沒有商業模式或沒有可持續的商業模式。讓我頗爲自豪的是，我們有自己的商業模式，但我認爲接下來行業該有一定的調整了。”Jay Simons
傑伊·西蒙斯President, Atlassian
Atlassian公司董事長“I believe there’s a lot of optimism in the market right now. Whether there’s a bubble or not a bubble, I believe people are just optimistic. Look at the fact that the PE [price-earnings] ratio is the highest it’s been since 1940 with the exception of 2000.”
“我相信現在看好市場的人非常多。無論有沒有泡沫，我認爲人們都很樂觀。看看市盈率吧，除2000年以外，這是自1940年以來的最高值。”Josh Tetrick
約什·泰特里克CEO, Hampton Creek
Hampton Creek公司首席執行官“I don’t. I think a lot of things are overstated on the good and the bad. And I think it’s just human nature to get excited about things and to get too depressed when it looks like something. Eventually, there will be a downturn, but I don’t see it coming any time soon.
“我不認爲有泡沫。我覺得很多事情的好處和壞處都被誇大了。我認爲，無論是對這種發展感到興奮，還是由於現在的情況很像過去的互聯網泡沫而感到沮喪，都是人之常情。最終，衰退總要來的，但我認爲它來得不會這麼快。I think from my perspective and what we’re doing, I think there’s so much noise about there being a bubble. But that [any sort of course correction] is more likely than not to be a year-and-a-half off. And that’s a result of all the customers we’re dealing with from Wal-Mart to Target to Whole Foods and just trying to get a sense of how they’re thinking and just understanding their environment. Feels like it’s a bit off. But it’s not now.”
從我的角度和我們的工作來看，我認爲關於泡沫的議論太多了。但是那（某種航向修正）在一年半之內不太可能出現。我們一直跟沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）、塔吉特百貨（Target）和全食超市（Whole Foods）等客戶保持接觸，試圖瞭解他們對當今局勢的看法和理解，最後得出了這樣的結論。看起來形勢是有些不太對頭，但現在說泡沫還爲時尚早。”
