誰是下一個WhatsApp和Candy Crush

WhatsApp and Candy Crush recently joined the big leagues of technology start-ups done good, prompting tech-shy investors to join the hunt for the digital giants of the future.

WhatsApp和Candy Crush最近加入了成功高科技初創企業的行列，這推動通常回避科技股的投資者開始尋找未來的數字巨擘。

Family offices, wealthy individuals and even some institutional investors have begun to sift through the swaths of up-and-coming technology ventures in the hope of spotting the next big thing.

家族理財室、富有的個人甚至一些機構投資者開始篩選前景看好的科技企業，以期發現下一個巨擘。

Christian Nagel, co-founder of Earlybird, a Berlin-based venture capital company, admits that European investors have in recent years suffered a “horrible experience” when committing capital to start-ups.

總部位於柏林的風投公司Earlybird聯合創始人克里斯蒂安•納格爾(Christian Nagel)承認，最近幾年，歐洲投資者在將資金投入初創企業方面遭遇了“可怕的經歷”。

“Venture capital as an asset class has not been in investors’ favour, and investment volumes have constantly come down,” he says.

他表示：“作爲一種資產類別，風險投資近年不受投資者青睞，投資規模持續下降。”

But he believes the high-risk, low-return dynamic that blighted early-stage investors is shifting.

但他認爲，讓早期投資者希望破滅的高風險和低迴報的格局正在改變。

“We have had discussions with our investors about whether the venture capital model is broken, and we find that family offices are among those who have realised that something has changed,” he says. “There is less capital chasing more opportunities.”

“我們就風險投資模式是否已經不適用與我們的投資者進行了討論，結果發現，家族理財室等投資者意識到情況已發生變化，”他表示，“機會更多了，但追蹤這些機會的資金變少了。”

The recent flurry of young tech companies that have found success at an international level has spurred investor interest in digital start-ups, despite the fact that many investors were burnt not too long ago during the dotcom bubble.

近期一連串在國際層面上獲得成功的年輕科技公司，引發了投資者對數字初創企業的興趣，儘管事實是，很多投資者在不那麼久以前的網絡股泡沫期間曾遭受虧損。

Just last month King Digital Entertainment, the developer behind the addictive online game Candy Crush Saga, filed for an initial public offering in the US with the hope of raising more than $500m.

就在上個月，深受網民喜歡的在線遊戲Candy Crush Saga背後的開發公司King Digital Entertainment，申請在美國進行首次公開發行(IPO)，希望籌資逾5億美元。

Sina Weibo, a Chinese messaging platform similar to Twitter, followed suit last week by announcing plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange with a potential valuation of up to $8bn.

類似於Twitter的中國微博客平臺新浪微博(Sina Weibo)最近也宣佈，計劃在紐交所(New York Stock Exchange)上市，估值可能高達80億美元。

Social networking giant Facebook also recently surprised markets with its $19bn buyout of instant messaging application WhatsApp in what appeared to be one of Silicon Valley’s best-kept secrets.

社交網絡巨頭Facebook最近以190億美元收購即時通訊應用WhatsApp，此舉令市場意外，堪稱硅谷保守最好的祕密之一。

While the odds of spotting the next Facebook are very long, investing in the next Airbnb, the accommodation website, or Farfetch, the online fashion retailer, is more plausible, according to Stefano Guidotti, chief executive of U-Start, a matchmaker for start-ups that puts selected small businesses in touch with angel investors.

爲初創企業牽線搭橋、把精選的小企業介紹給天使投資者的U-Start公司的首席執行官斯泰法諾•吉多蒂(Stefano Guidotti)表示，儘管發現下一個Facebook的機會不大，但投資於下一個住宿網站Airbnb或者在線時尚零售商Farfetch還是比較可信的。

He says: “Digital start-ups are disrupting industries from travel to accommodation to logistics – this is where you can really look for home runs in the investment space.

他表示：“數字初創企業正在顛覆各種行業，從旅遊和住宿到物流，你確實可以從中找到投資良機。”

“Models that are growing at an incredible pace have the chance to become a billion-dollar opportunity, and [they emerge] much more frequently than companies like Facebook or Twitter.”

“正以令人難以置信的速度增長的模式，有機會成爲價值數十億美元的機遇，（它們的涌現）次數遠遠多於Facebook或Twitter這樣的公司。”

The one area that investors should steer clear of is the new breed of start-ups aiming to cash in on the buzz around alternative digital currencies such as Bitcoin, according to Matteo Rizzi, partner at SBT Venture Capital, the financial technology-focused firm.

聚焦金融技術的公司SBT Venture Capital合夥人馬特奧•里茲(Matteo Rizzi)表示，投資者應迴避的一個領域是希望藉助比特幣(Bitcoin)等另類數字貨幣所引發的熱潮謀利的新型初創企業。

“This is potentially a very risky investment because the return could be very big, or you could lose all of your money,” he says. “It has such explosive potential because regulation could hit this sector very hard and kill it before it gets going.”

“這可能是一種風險非常高的投資，因爲回報率可能會非常高，但你也可能血本無歸，”他表示，“它具有如此爆炸性的潛力，因爲監管機構可能在這個行業站穩腳跟之前沉重打擊並掐滅它。”

Rising investor confidence in early-stage technology and digital businesses has been helped by the development of vibrant start-up hubs beyond the US.

美國以外富有活力的初創企業中心的發展，增強了投資者對初創科技和數字企業的信心。

A cluster of businesses focusing on online marketing and data analytics has sprung up in Berlin, while London is home to a growing number of financial tech start-ups. Large entrepreneurial communities have similarly sprouted in Tel Aviv and pockets of eastern Europe and South America.

一些聚焦於在線營銷和數據分析的企業開始在柏林涌現，倫敦也出現了越來越多的金融科技初創企業。類似的大型創業社區在特拉維夫、東歐和南美部分地區紛紛涌現。

Mr Nagel says: “In the past most start-ups were in Silicon Valley or New York and you had to spend millions just to start developing. Now we see businesses popping up everywhere as you can develop and test an app overnight with little money.”

納格爾表示：“過去，多數初創企業位於硅谷或紐約，僅僅啓動開發，你就得花費數百萬美元。如今，我們看到企業從各個地方涌現出來，你幾乎不用花什麼錢就能在一夜之間開發並測試一款應用。”

As a result, Earlybird recently launched a fund focused on early-stage businesses in Turkey, central and eastern Europe. It raised $110m from entrepreneurs, family offices and institutional investors including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation.

因此，Earlybird最近推出了一隻基金，關注土耳其、中歐和東歐的初創企業。這隻基金從企業家、家族理財室和機構投資者那裏籌資1.10億美元，這些機構投資者包括歐洲復興開發銀行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)和國際金融公司(International Finance Corporation)。

Family offices founded by successful business people who made their fortunes decades ago have been among the first to realise that an exciting new generation of entrepreneurs has emerged, according to Mr Nagel. “This new breed of entrepreneur does not copy existing US business models, but creates something unique that can be expanded internationally,” he says.

納格爾表示，由幾十年前致富的成功商人成立的家族理財室，首先意識到新一代令人激動的創業家已經涌現。他表示：“這一代的創業家不會複製美國現有的商業模式，而是創造出了能夠在全球擴張的獨特產品。”

Mr Guidotti agrees, pointing out that many family offices are particularly keen to invest in sectors they already have some experience of. Families with a background in the motor industry, for example, prefer to invest in start-ups in related technology, such as car-sharing or tracking devices.

吉多蒂同意這點，他指出，很多家族理財室尤其熱衷投資於自己有一定經驗的行業。例如，具備汽車行業背景的家族更願意投資於相關技術領域的初創企業，例如汽車分享或跟蹤裝置。

“They see the opportunity in something they can control and understand better than a hedge-fund product, which has not necessarily brought the results they expected,” Mr Guidotti says.

吉多蒂表示：“它們在自己比對衝基金產品更內行的領域發現機遇，對衝基金不一定帶來它們期待的結果。”

Although investors are regaining confidence in the tech start-up scene, it is not fool proof. There is resounding consensus that roughly 15 to 20 per cent of even the most carefully selected businesses will fail.

儘管投資者正在重拾對科技初創企業的信心，但這並非穩操勝券。各方的一個強烈共識是：即便是經過最精心的遴選，也仍會有15%至20%左右的企業破產。

To keep business failures – and investor discontent – to a minimum, venture capitalists and groups such as U-Start seek recommendations from accelerators such as Berlin’s Startupbootcamp and academic incubators that provide facilities, office space and mentoring advice to early-stage entrepreneurs.

爲了把企業破產（以及投資者不滿）降至最低，風險投資家和U-Start等機構從創業加速器（如柏林的Startupbootcamp）和爲初創企業家提供設施、辦公場所和指導建議的高校創業孵化器那裏尋求建議。

Earlybird’s Mr Nadel adds that the main reason a business tends to fail is down to problems with the team dynamic.

Earlybird的納格爾補充稱，企業破產的主要原因往往在於團隊動力問題。

He says: “We have declined opportunities where the idea was great but the team was so-so. The team needs to be really willing to create something, not give up first time a cheque from Google comes around. This is not about quick money – if you sell the company or bring it public, the team should stay.”

他表示：“我們曾拒絕那些創意不錯但團隊平平的機會。團隊需要真正具備創造的意願，而不是在谷歌(Google)第一次送上支票時就放棄。這不是爲了快速發財，如果你要出售企業或將其上市，團隊應當留下來。”