iPhone增量式改變或將令蘋果面臨風險

The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the moment to dump Apple shares.

新iPhone一定會打破之前的銷售紀錄。除此之外，它也提醒我們，可能到了賣出蘋果(Apple)股票的時候了。

Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it isn't crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world's largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results.

據前不久的庭審證詞顯示，蘋果高管在公司內部開玩笑時曾說，每款新iPhone的銷量都是之前所有幾代產品的銷量之和。認爲至少另一款iPhone的銷量也將呈現出這種增長模式並非不切實際的想法。那些想讓手裏iPhone更新換代的用戶具有潛在需求，再加上新機型可能最終將與全球最大無線運營商中國移動(China Mobile)的網絡兼容，基於這兩個因素，投資者可以期待新iPhone異常火爆的銷售情況。

But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple's mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn't expected to be very different.

但創造這項紀錄的新款iPhone本身卻可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升級”版。實際上，如果從蘋果最新版移動操作系統來判斷的話，那麼新款iPhone可能與蘋果過去三年來售出的智能手機並無太大差別。當然，預計屏幕會變大，機身會變薄，但實際用戶體驗可能不會有太大不同。

In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that 'it just works,' notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is opposed to, say, devices running Google's Android operating system, where the ability to customize can complicate the user experience.

市場研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析師莫斯頓(Neil Mawston)指出，從某種意義上說，這是件好事，因爲iPhone如此受歡迎的原因之一是它很好用。iPhone的硬件、軟件和蘋果iTunes等服務融爲一體，使用方便，因此大量並非熱衷電子產品的用戶也爲之着迷。與之形成對比的是搭載谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系統的手機，這些產品的定製功能可能會使用戶體驗複雜化。

In another sense, sticking to the iPhone's traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system that Nokia uses has 'live tiles' that display useful information or photos directly on the device's home screen, not just dummy icons you have to touch to launch apps. The camera technology in Nokia's latest device is also likely to be superior to Apple's. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen that should work for users wearing winter gloves. Such subtle improvements have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs.

從另一個層面來看，iPhone在設計上堅持走傳統路線也有問題，這會給競爭對手一個推出新功能並領先蘋果的機會。諾基亞(Nokia)使用的Windows Phone操作系統有可直接在手機主屏上顯示有用信息或圖片的“活動瓷片”(live tiles)，而不僅僅是必須通過碰觸才能啓動應用程序的一個個圖標。諾基亞最新手機採用的相機技術可能也比蘋果先進。而且諾基亞目前正在展示其設計實力，如用戶帶着防寒手套也能用的觸摸屏等。這類細微之處的改進歷來都是喬布斯(Steve Jobs)生前在任時蘋果產品所具有的特色。

Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, not to mention other media from the iTunes store, may find themselves locked into using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices.

此外，蘋果也有其它強大的優勢，包括巨大的應用生態系統。安卓也有很多應用軟件，但Windows Phone在這方面則遠遠落後。那些下載了很多應用軟件(更不必說從iTunes商店下載其它媒體內容)的用戶可能會發現自己已離不開iPhone了。但如果競爭對手在其它關鍵領域超越iPhone，蘋果向無線運營商證明其高價位屬於合理範疇的難度就會增大。

Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry looked nearly as impregnable as Apple does today. Apple's dominant ecosystem should prevent it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact that it finds itself in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares trade for just 12 times earnings for the fiscal year ending September 2013 despite growing faster than any other company in the S&P 500 in 2011, ex-acquisitions.

不久以前，諾基亞和黑莓(BlackBerry)也曾與如今的蘋果一樣，有着看似幾乎固若金湯的地位。蘋果所主導的應用生態系統應該會防止它重蹈黑莓的覆轍。不過，蘋果從事的是一個需要大量人氣的行業，這也許就很好地解釋了爲何該公司根據截至2013年9月財年預期收益計算的市盈率僅爲12倍，儘管蘋果的增長速度超過2011年標普500指數(S&P 500)任何一家成分股公司（不包括髮生收購的公司）。

Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening.

曾幾何時，蘋果革命性地將手機轉變爲掌上電腦。而在設計方面採取“增量式改變”將讓蘋果的競爭對手有機可乘。

The next iPhone should again propel Apple's stock and its sales. That may be the time for Apple shareholders to take their money off the table.

下一款iPhone應該會推動蘋果股票及銷售再上新臺階，或許這也是蘋果股東揣好賺到的錢走路的時候了。