憤怒的選民從哪裏來 去往哪裏

In 1989, a few months before the Berlin Wall fell, I visited a frozen food factory in Grimsby, on the north-east coast of England.

1989年，在柏林牆倒塌前幾個月，我拜訪了英格蘭東北海岸格里姆斯比的一家冷凍食品廠。

It was run by Birds Eye Wall’s, then owned by Unilever, and it had just won an award for industrial harmony.

這家由當時隸屬聯合利華(Unilever)旗下的Birds Eye Wall’s運營的工廠，當時剛剛因勞資關係和諧得到了獎賞。

The workers had agreed to job cuts and to work in teams, retraining and raising productivity in return for higher wages.

該工廠的工人們當時同意以工作裁減、組隊工作、再培訓和提高生產率，換取漲薪。

Employees of Birds Eye in Kirkby, Merseyside, had rejected the same challenge and their factory was being shut.

Birds Eye在默西塞德郡柯比市的僱員拒絕了同樣的挑戰，他們的工廠被關閉。

Grimsby’s escape did not last.

格里姆斯比工廠並未倖免多久。

Unilever finally declared the factory too small and inefficient and closed it in 2005; the abandoned building later caught fire.

聯合利華最終宣佈，該工廠規模太小、效率太低，在2005年將其關閉；遭廢棄的工廠後來失了火。

Unilever went on to sell Birds Eye to Permira, a private equity group, which merged it with other European frozen food businesses.

聯合利華接着將Birds Eye出售給了私人股本集團Permira，後來Permira將Birds Eye與其他歐洲冷凍食品企業合併了起來。

I thought of that ruined factory in June when the citizens of Grimsby voted by one of the highest majorities for Britain to leave the EU, and again last week as Donald Trump was elected US president.

今年6月格里姆斯比以位居全國前列的高得票比例支持英國退出歐盟時，以及不久前唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統時，我都想到了那座廢棄的工廠。

Its experience has been repeated in many places since 1989 with the loosening of barriers to trade and migration, and the unleashing of globalisation.

自1989年以來，隨着貿易和移民壁壘放鬆以及全球化的發展，該工廠的經歷在許多地方重演。

Among them are the former steel towns of western Pennsylvania, which rejected Hillary Clinton.

其中包括賓夕法尼亞西部那些曾經的鋼鐵城鎮，那些城鎮沒有支持希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)。

Take Johnstown in Cambria County, east of Pittsburgh, where there was once a Bethlehem Steel plant making railroad carriages.

拿匹茲堡以東的坎布里亞縣來說，這裏曾有一家制造鐵路車廂的伯利恆鋼鐵(Bethlehem Steel)工廠。

More than 12,000 people worked there in the late 1970s but by the time it closed in 2007 only 390 were left.

在上世紀70年代末，逾1.2萬人在這裏工作，但到2007年關閉的時候，該廠僅剩下390人。

Pittsburgh, which voted for Mrs Clinton, is a shining example of how a cosmopolitan city can recover from the loss of manufacturing.

投票支持希拉里的匹茲堡是一個極好的例子，表明一個國際大都市如何能從製造業的衰敗中復甦。

Steelmaking has been succeeded by health and other services, clustered around Carnegie Mellon University.

鋼鐵製造業被聚集在卡耐基梅隆大學(Carnegie Mellon University)周圍的醫療和其他服務行業取代。

But small town Pennsylvania still hurts and Mr Trump won Cambria County easily.

但賓夕法尼亞的小城鎮仍在承受傷痛，特朗普輕鬆地拿下了坎布里亞縣。

Trump voters had many motives, from hostility to immigration, to anger at wage stagnation, to rejection of social liberalism.

支持特朗普的選民們動機各異，從敵視移民、對薪資停滯不滿到拒絕社會自由主義。

Most were not poor: a majority of those earning less than $50,000 per year backed Mrs Clinton.

大多數人並不窮：絕大多數年收入不足5萬美元的人都支持希拉里。

But much of their resentment, and others’ enthusiasm for Brexit, seems to me to originate on the factory floor, especially manufacturing plants in places such as Johnstown and Grimsby that are now gone.

但在我看來，他們的怨恨以及其他人對英國退歐的熱情支持在很大程度上似乎起源於工廠，尤其是約翰斯敦和格里姆斯比等地方如今已不復存在的製造業工廠。

It speaks to the loss not only of jobs but agency: the control that mid-tier employees used to have over their working lives.

他們的怨恨反映的不僅是工作的失去，還有手段的失去：中層僱員曾經擁有能夠掌控自己職業生活的手段。

They once had greater bargaining power: it was harder for companies to impose changes in how they worked when many factories were unionised and moving production to other places was difficult.

他們曾經擁有更強的討價還價的能力：在那個許多工廠建立了工會，並且生產很難轉移到其他地區的時代，公司更難迫使他們改變工作方式。

When the walls came down, capital became more powerful and more mobile; there was always a ready alternative.

當一道道牆倒塌，資本變得更有力量、更機動靈活，就總是不缺現成的替代選擇了。

The experience of those two factories was typical: a steady intensification of managers’ demands on workers with limited or obsolescent skills, with the threat of work being taken to a greenfield site, or the far side of the world.

那兩個工廠的經歷非常典型：管理者對技能有限或過時的工人要求得越來越嚴格，同時威脅要把工廠遷往一個全新廠址或世界另一邊。

If they could not get what they wanted, private equity restructuring loomed.

如果他們得不到自己想要的，私人股本就有可能介入，對工廠實施重組。

The world split into those for whom mobility was a threat and those for whom it was an opportunity.

世界分裂成兩派，一派認爲機動性是威脅，另一派則認爲是機遇。

Birds Eye is now owned by Nomad Foods Europe.

Birds Eye現在隸屬Nomad Foods Europe旗下。

Its executives are elite nomads of various nationalities, who have worked from Athens to Houston.

Nomad Foods Europe的高管是國籍各異、輾轉世界的國際精英，在從雅典到休斯頓等不同地方工作過。

People not educated at business schools or trained to run global supply chains have had a tougher time, losing jobs and having benefits stripped.

沒有念過商學院或接受過全球供應鏈管理方面訓練的人們經歷了一個較困難的時期，失去了工作，福利減少。

Their losses have torn through communities, making them receptive to Mr Trump’s fierce gospel of social conservatism and economic restoration.

他們的損失導致社區分裂，讓他們容易接受特朗普宣揚的社會保守主義和經濟復甦的極端信條。

There are many holes in his signature plan to employ Americans to build a southern border wall and make Mexico pay for it but it has a brute symbolism.

特朗普的標誌性計劃，即僱傭美國人在南部邊境建造高牆並讓墨西哥買單，是個有許多漏洞的計劃，但它有着極具衝擊力的象徵意義。

To people who experienced the opposite — US consumers paying for jobs and facilities in Mexico — it is justice.

對那些經歷過相反事情（即，美國消費者爲墨西哥的工作和設施買單）的人來說，這就是正義。

Most economists would say that taking back control by building walls and ending international trade deals will not have the intended effect.

大多數經濟學家會說，通過建起高牆和取消國際貿易協議來奪回控制權將事與願違。

It will not return steelmaking to Pennsylvania or food processing to Grimsby.

這種做法不會讓鋼鐵製造業回到賓夕法尼亞，也不會讓食品加工業回到格里姆斯比。

Mr Trump is a showman, not a magician.

特朗普善於作秀，但他不是魔術師。

But part of his message made sense, and companies would be foolish to ignore it.

但他傳達出的部分信息是明智的，企業忽視這一點將是愚蠢的。

Capital and labour mobility have produced big benefits for consumers, and for citizens in low income economies, in the past three decades.

在過去30年裏，資本和勞動力流動極大地造福了消費者和低收入經濟中的民衆。

They have given less to non-elite workers in wealthy economies, and have sapped their sense of security.

這種流動帶給富裕經濟體中非精英工人的好處則較少，而且削弱了他們的安全感。

Building walls is a bad idea but making capital work more productively for those in abandoned places is a good one.

建起高牆是一個糟糕的想法，但讓資本更有效地服務於那些被遺棄地區的人們是個好主意。

It is essential if people whose economic voices have been muted are not to wield their political votes against liberalism.

重要的是，要保證經濟上失去話語權的人不會利用他們的政治投票反對自由主義。

The yearning for companies to create decent jobs for local citizens is not nativism or prejudice: it is what those in Pittsburgh, London or New York already enjoy, alongside immigration.

渴望企業爲當地居民創造體面工作不是本土保護主義或者偏見——在匹茲堡、倫敦或紐約，這一願望已經得到了滿足，這些城市同時還享受了移民帶來的好處。

It is a founding purpose of business, lost in the rush to globalise.

實現這一願望是企業成立的目的，在急匆匆奔向全球化的過程中，這個目的卻丟失了。

How companies and communities achieve this aim is, of course, the hard part.

棘手的問題當然是企業和社區如何實現這個目標。

Intelligent rules and incentives are needed to generate and to keep productive work, not to wall it off.

需要的是設計明智的規則和激勵措施來創造和留住生產性工作，而不是建起高牆。

But it is dangerous that many employers no longer consider this their role.

但危險的是，許多僱主不再將這視爲自己的責任。

Until they do, expect more Trumps.

在僱主們認識到這是他們的責任之前，預計還會有更多特朗普式人物出現。