影響石油價格走勢五大因素
Oil’s volatile start to 2016 has continued, with prices back below $40. The following five factors are among those that could determine crude’s next move.
油價延續了年初以來的動盪局面，目前再度跌破每桶40美元。以下五個因素可能決定原油的未來行情。
Output freeze
產量凍結
It is less than two weeks until a key meeting of large producers in Doha and the outcome is in doubt.
石油輸出國組織（OPEC，簡稱：歐佩克）成員和其他大型產油國的一場關鍵會議還有不到兩週時間就要在多哈召開了，會議結果非常不確定。
Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said last week that it would only agree to a hold on output if joined by Iran, something that seems unlikely given that Tehran has vowed to lift exports as it emerges from years of sanctions.
上週，沙特副王儲穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)表示，唯有在伊朗也同意的情況下，沙特纔會同意凍結產量——而伊朗似乎不太可能同意，因爲該國在擺脫多年的制裁之後，已發誓要增加出口。
Before his statement, Opec delegates indicated that Saudi Arabia would be prepared to allow Iran some leeway, despite their fierce rivalry.
在他如此表態之前，歐佩克的代表曾暗示，儘管沙特和伊朗激烈對抗，但沙特會願意給伊朗留有一些餘地。
While the prince’s comments may supersede those of the oil ministry, it is possible they fall short of an edict, and are partially aimed at a domestic audience used to tough talk against Iran. Equally, they may be a pre-meeting bargaining chip to try to extract more concessions from Iran, such as capping how much the country raises output before joining the freeze.
儘管這位副王儲的話或許推翻了沙特石油部官員的話，但副王儲的話可能不會落實爲法令，在一定程度上可能是說給習慣於聽到對伊朗強硬言論的沙特國內民衆聽的。同樣，這些話或許是會議召開前的一塊談判籌碼，試圖使伊朗做出更多讓步，比如設定伊朗加入產量凍結前的增產上限。
Either way, its seems unlikely the world’s largest producers would risk meeting in Doha without a deal already pencilled in.
無論是哪種情況，世界上最大產油國手中還沒有一份談妥的協議就貿然去參加多哈會議，似乎是不太可能的。
“While a Doha deal might help to set a floor under oil prices, a sustained recovery will probably require outright cuts in global supply as well as further increases in demand to rebalance the market,” say analysts at Capital Economics.
“儘管一份多哈協議或許有助於爲油價託底，但油價持續復甦將很可能有賴於全球供應的真正削減以及需求的進一步增加使得市場實現再平衡，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師表示。
US supply
美國供應
The US shale oil boom bears at least some of the responsibility for the glut that has decimated prices since mid-2014, but slowing US output may also hold the key to an eventual recovery.
美國頁岩油繁榮對供應過剩承擔至少部分責任，但美國產量放緩或許也對油價最終復甦起到關鍵作用。自2014年年中以來，油價一直受到供應過剩的嚴重打壓。
After proving more resilient to lower prices than many first assumed, US output is firmly on a downward trajectory, even as conventional production from areas such as the Gulf of Mexico continues to rise due to investments made when prices were above $100 a barrel.
此前的事實顯示，美國的石油產量對價格的降低比許多人一開始假定的更不敏感，如今美國的產量穩步進入了下降通道——即便由於在油價高於每桶100美元時進行的投資，墨西哥灣等地區的傳統方式石油產量還在持續增加。
From 2008 to April 2015, US crude production almost doubled from 5m barrels a day to a peak of 9.7m b/d. But in the past year it has slipped by at least 5 per cent, with the latest data indicating it was below 9.2m b/d in January.
從2008年到2015年4月，美國原油日產量幾乎翻了一番，從500萬桶增加至970萬桶的峯值。但在過去一年裏，美國原油日產量降低了至少5%——最新數據顯示，1月的這個數字不到920萬桶。
The top 25 US oil and gas producers expect a further drop of 4 per cent on average this year. The US Energy Information Agency sees supply by 2017 averaging about 8.2m b/d for the year — a 1.5m b/d decline from its peak.
美國最大的25家油氣生產商預計，今年產量平均將進一步降低4%。美國能源信息署(EIA)認爲，2017年全年平均日供應量將約爲820萬桶，較峯值下降150萬桶。
Others are sceptical. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, thinks the projected supply fall may be too high and reckons analysts are extrapolating data from smaller, cash-strapped producers that are likely to be less able to weather low prices than the oil majors.
其他人表示懷疑。諮詢公司Energy Aspects認爲，預測的供應量減幅或許太高了，並猜想，分析師的數據是根據資金緊張的中小生產商的情況推出的。這些生產商抵禦低價影響的能力可能不如大型油企。
Have hedge funds had their fill?
對衝基金滿足了嗎？
Hedge fund positioning has tracked the moves in oil prices so far this year. After establishing a near record bet against the price in early January, when crude fell below $30 a barrel for the first time in 13 years, funds have dramatically reversed course on hopes of a deal to freeze output. By the end of March, funds’ net long position — the difference between bets on rising and falling prices — was close to the highest level on record, totalling the equivalent of more than 0.5bn barrels of crude.
今年迄今，對衝基金一直在根據油價行情調整頭寸。1月初，原油價格13年來首次跌破每桶30美元時，對衝基金持有的押注油價下跌的頭寸達到了近乎創紀錄的水平。現在，由於寄望於產量凍結協議的達成，對衝基金又大幅逆轉了押注方向。到3月底，對衝基金的淨做多頭寸——即押注油價上漲和下跌的頭寸之差——已接近歷史最高水平，總量相當於超過5億桶原油。
But the tide may be turning again. Last week traders reduced bets on higher prices and added to bets on another sell-off.
但風向或許會再次變化。上週，交易員們降低了押注油價上漲的頭寸，增加了押注原油再遭拋售的頭寸。
“Despite showing signs of improving, fundamentals are not yet strong enough to support a sustained recovery,” says Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank.
“儘管已出現改善跡象，但基本面尚未強到足以支撐油價持續復甦的地步，”盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)的奧勒•漢森(Ole Hansen)稱。
Production
產量
Low prices can increase the risk of production stoppages. Baghdad’s long-running dispute with Iraqi Kurdistan over independent oil sales has curtailed output from the north of the country by about 150,000 b/d. In Nigeria, Shell has declared force majeure on about 250,000 b/d of exports after an explosion disrupted its Forcados export terminal. But ahead of the output “freeze” meeting all countries appear to be trying to maximise production. Russia’s output hit a post-Soviet high of 10.9m b/d in March, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may restart production at a field in the jointly controlled “neutral zone”.
低價可能會增加生產中斷的風險。巴格達方面與伊拉克庫爾德斯坦地區(Iraqi Kurdistan)在後者獨立出售石油問題上的長期糾紛，已使該國北部的日產量減少了約15萬桶。在尼日利亞，一次爆炸破壞了殼牌(Shell)在福卡多斯(Forcados)的出口終端，該公司隨後宣佈，受不可抗力影響，停止每日約25萬桶的出口。但在產量“凍結”會議前，所有國家似乎都在努力把產量提到最高。俄羅斯3月的日產量達到1090萬桶的後蘇聯時代高點，沙特和科威特或許會重啓位於兩國共同控制的“中立區”的一處油田的生產。
Global demand
全球需求
Demand is 2016’s wild card. Low prices helped propel demand growth in 2015, but the picture for this year is mixed. The International Energy Agency sees 1.2m b/d of growth — higher than the average over the previous five years. If that level is reached or exceeded, most analysts expect the market to start to balance towards the end of the year.
2016年局勢的變數在於需求。2015年，低價幫助推高了需求增長，但今年的局面是複雜的。國際能源署(IEA)認爲，今年日需求量將增加120萬桶，增幅高於過去5年的平均水平。如果增幅達到或超過這一水平，大多數分析師預計，到年底市場會開始達成平衡。
“Demand at these levels has been growing strongly,” says Henry Peabody at Eaton Vance, a fund manager. “Non-Opec production is in decline, and capital is not allocated to new projects. We should start to see the market rebalancing later this year or in 2017.
“當前價格水平上的需求一直增長強勁，”基金管理公司億廷繁世(Eaton Vance)的亨利•皮博迪(Henry Peabody)表示，“歐佩克以外國家的產量在下降，沒有資本被配置到新項目中去。在今年晚些時候或2017年，我們應會開始看到市場再平衡。”
