中國對朝立場面臨挑戰 China stance on N Korea faces Security Council challenge

China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.

中國遏制朝鮮核抱負的戰略將在未來幾天面臨關鍵考驗。目前聯合國安理會正推動通過決議，可能對中國的這個鄰國（有時還是盟友）施加新的制裁。

Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.

太平洋兩岸的專家們表示，美國對平壤今年1月份核彈頭試驗和本月發射遠程火箭做出了強硬的迴應，這讓北京方面感到意外。美國要求中國對平壤施加包括石油禁運在內的全面經濟制裁。

“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,” says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”

總部位於華盛頓的智庫——戰略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)表示：“從與中方人士的談話中，我感到他們對美國提出這麼高的要求感到相當意外。他們預計會像過去那樣，聯合國安理會通過稍微強硬一點的決議，做出嚴厲譴責，然後事情就過去了。”

One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.

華盛頓已經推出的一個舉措是，提議在韓國部署新的反導彈防禦系統。這激怒了北京，後者表示，末段高空區域防禦系統(THAAD)平臺可能威脅到中國的核威懾力量。

The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.

美國還表示，將推動出臺嚴厲的二級單邊制裁措施，美國國會正在審議的一些法案可能針對某些與朝鮮有業務來往的中資銀行和公司。

The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.

這些措施也意在強化北京方面的決心，促使後者考慮切斷平壤的經濟命脈。然而，北京方面不僅擔心進一步激怒朝鮮的後果，而且還急於阻止朝鮮政權倒臺。

“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,” says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.

位於北京的卡內基-清華全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁軍專家趙通表示：“朝鮮是一個處於崩潰邊緣的核武國家。”

“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”

“把它變成敵人是中國最不想看到的事情，因爲中國可能直接受到威脅。我認爲，國際社會對中國提出這種要求是不公平的。”

Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour”.

中國政府採取的政策似乎是口頭上公開支持對朝鮮實施更嚴厲制裁，私下裏卻在幕後斡旋。中國外交部長王毅上週在慕尼黑告訴路透社(Reuters)，聯合國應出臺一項決議，確保“朝鮮將付出必要的代價並表明朝鮮要爲其行爲承擔後果”。

The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states”. But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.

最近生效的伊朗核協議使美國得到鼓舞，該協議表明，嚴厲制裁能夠改變“無賴國家”的行爲。但這些主張對中國似乎沒有說服力，中國對朝鮮半島穩定感到擔憂。

“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,” says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”

“沒錯，他們希望實現無核化，但前提條件是維護朝鮮的穩定，”葛來儀表示，“中國不希望朝鮮發生政權更迭。”

When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.

據專家稱，美國國務卿約翰克里(John Kerry)訪問北京並敦促中國政府對朝鮮實施石油禁運，遭到了王毅的拒絕。

Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.

與此同時，中國似乎在試探相反的策略。北京中國國際問題研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究員崔磊上月在一份新加坡報紙上發表了一篇廣受關注的評論文章，支持像對待印度和巴基斯坦那樣對待朝鮮。前兩個國家曾在1998年進行核彈實驗。

“We should readopt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,” he wrote.

他寫道：“我認爲，可以考慮採取印巴模式，默認朝鮮的擁核事實，但不給予其合法地位。”