歐洲面臨五場危機 Five concurrent crises push Europe into the realm of chaos
Europe is juggling five simultaneous crises, all unforeseen shocks in different stages of development: refugees from Syria, eurozone periphery debt, a global economic downturn, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its aftermath, and Volkswagen’s crimes and misdemeanours. [is there such a thing? i can’t find one]
歐洲正疲於應對五場未曾預見、正處於不同階段的危機：敘利亞難民、歐元區外圍國家債務危機、全球經濟低迷、俄羅斯吞併克里米亞及其餘波、以及大衆汽車(Volkswagen)的罪行與過錯。
Chaos theory’s favourite metaphor is the wing flap of a butterfly that sets off a tornado in another part of the world. An innocuous crisis trigger in Europe has been Angela Merkel’s principled decision to open up Germany to refugees from Syria. Most Germans greeted her decision with exuberance, but she did not prepare her country, and the rest of Europe, politically and logistically for what was to come. In Berlin and Hamburg the housing situation is so desperate that the authorities are preparing legislation to confiscate empty privately owned apartments and, in Hamburg, commercial properties too. There have been cases where local governments terminated rental contracts of tenants in social housing to give shelter to refugees. When the public sector behaves this way, xenophobia is only nanoseconds away.
混沌理論最鍾愛的比喻是，一隻蝴蝶扇動一下翅膀，引發一連串反應，最終引發世界另一個地方的一場龍捲風。安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)出於原則決定向敘利亞難民開放德國大門，在無意中引發了一場危機。大多數德國人熱烈歡呼她的決定，但是她並未帶領自己的國家乃至整個歐洲在政治上和後勤上爲後續問題做好準備。柏林和漢堡的住房狀況非常嚴峻，以至於地方當局準備立法沒收空置的私有公寓，在漢堡甚至包括商業地產。已經發生了地方政府終止社會福利住房的租房合同、把房子讓給難民的多起事例。當公共部門如此行事時，仇外情緒很快就會浮現。
No one in Germany is quicker to notice a shift in the public mood than Horst Seehofer, leader of the CSU, the conservative Bavarian sister party to Ms Merkel’s Christian Democrats. He says Germany will be paying for the consequences of Ms Merkel’s policies for a long time. The chancellor’s once gravity-defying approval ratings have recently come down.
在德國，沒人比保守派的巴伐利亞基社盟（Bavarian CSU，與默克爾領導的基民盟(CDU)結盟的政黨）的黨魁霍斯特澤霍費爾(Horst Seehofer)更早意識到公衆情緒的變化。他稱，德國將在未來很長時期爲默克爾的政策付出代價。德國總理一度貌似不受地心引力的支持率最近已經下滑。
My reading of the situation is that the refugee crisis, perhaps more than any other single event, will end up reducing Germany’s room for manoeuvre. But it is not the only factor. A further constraint is the global economic slowdown. Its impact on the eurozone is not visible now, but that might soon change.
我對當前局面的解讀是，難民危機最終將壓縮德國的迴旋餘地，其影響或許超過其他任何單一事件。但它並非唯一因素。全球經濟增長放緩構成了進一步的制約。眼下它對歐元區的影響還不明顯，但這可能很快就會改變。
As Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, recently argued, there is no way the eurozone will be able to shrug off the global downturn because its post-crisis recovery strategy rests on net exports. The eurozone is headed for a current account surplus of 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product this year. It is generally unwise for large economies such as the eurozone to depend on beggar-thy-neighbour-type policies. Now that the neighbour — the rest of the world — has fallen sick, there is no plan B.
正如智庫——歐洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)的西蒙舠爾福德(Simon Tilford)最近所提出的，歐元區不可能擺脫全球經濟低迷的影響，因爲其後危機時代的復甦戰略依賴淨出口。今年歐元區的經常賬戶盈餘有望達到國內生產總值(GDP)的3.5%。像歐元區這樣的大型經濟體依賴於“以鄰爲壑”型政策通常是不明智的。在鄰居——世界其他地區——病倒的情況下，拿不出B計劃。
The combination of an economic slowdown and the refugee crisis will transform the German fiscal surplus into a small deficit, which would be fine under normal circumstances. Germany should be running a modest deficit to support the eurozone economy[cd you give a date so we can link to a specific col? cant’ find one on search]. But Germany imposed on itself a constitutional law that enforces budgetary balance over the economic cycle. Once the surpluses are gone, the political and legal room for discretionary policy will have disappeared. To put it more crudely: the Germans have decided to spend the surplus on the refugees, not on Greece.
經濟增長放緩與難民危機的組合，將使德國的財政盈餘變成小額赤字，這在正常情況下沒什麼問題。德國應該維持適度赤字以支持歐元區經濟。但是，德國給自己強加了一條憲法法律，要求在整個經濟週期期間達到預算平衡。一旦財政盈餘不復存在，德國採取自由裁量政策行動的政治和法律空間也將消失。說得更直白些，德國人已經決定把財政盈餘花在難民（而不是希臘）身上。
