地球命運堪憂 成敗繫於大國合作

As a former prime minister of Australia, I understand something of the political costs leaders must bear in aiming to reconcile the long-term interests of the planet with short-term national interests.

作爲澳大利亞前總理，我深知要調和地球的長期利益和短期的國家利益之間的衝突，領導人必須付出某種政治代價。

After attending the 2009 Copenhagen summit on climate change, I was attacked back home for either doing too much or too little in trying to bring about a binding global agreement.

在參加了2009年的哥本哈根氣候變化峯會之後，我在國內受到了攻擊，因爲人們覺得我在努力促成一份有約束力的全球協議時，做得太多或太少。

We all failed at Copenhagen, though not for want of effort from many of us. The United Nations conference in Paris this December is the next opportunity for leaders of the world’s biggest economies to show real leadership in the slow-motion drama that is anthropogenic climate change.

我們在哥本哈根都是輸家，但這不是因爲我們許多人缺乏行動。今年12月在巴黎召開的聯合國氣候大會，爲世界最大經濟體的領導人提供了又一次機會，讓他們可以在人爲氣候變化的慢動作劇目中，展示真正的領導力。

The United States and China, the world’s biggest polluters, began tackling climate change together when they announced an agreement last November to curb carbon emissions. The United States promised to double the speed at which it will reduce carbon emissions, aiming for a 26-to-28 percent reduction by 2025 from 2005 levels, while China pledged to peak emissions by around 2030.

世界上最大的兩個污染排放國——美國和中國——已經開始攜手應對氣候變化問題，並於去年11月宣佈了一份限制碳排放的協議。美國承諾把降低碳排放的步伐加快一倍，打算到2025年使碳排放水平比2005年減少26%至28%，而中國則承諾在2030年左右使碳排放達到峯值。

Meanwhile, India and China issued a joint statement on climate change earlier this month that included a pledge to submit plans on their own carbon targets before the Paris conference.

與此同時，印度和中國本月早些時候發表了一份有關氣候變化的聯合聲明，其中包括在巴黎會議之前提交它們自己的碳排放目標的承諾。

Five years ago, such joint announcements by the United States, China and India were seen as inconceivable. Now climate science makes them unavoidable.

五年前，美國、中國和印度達成的這些聯合聲明會令人難以置信。如今，氣候科學的現實讓它們別無選擇。

The mathematical reality is that these three countries — the United States, China and India — together with the European Union, will in large part shape the future of the planet.

數學方面的現實是，這三個國家——美國、中國和印度——加上歐盟國家，很大程度上將決定地球的未來。

Between 1850 and 2012, the United States and Europe produced 45 percent of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, compared to 18 percent from China and India, according to the nonprofit organization Climate Analytics. Based on current practices, it is projected that by 2020, China alone will produce 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, India 7 percent, the United States 13 percent and the European Union 8 percent. Climate change action by China and India is now critical.

根據非營利組織氣候分析(Climate Analytics)的數據，1850到2012年，美國和歐洲製造了目前大氣中45%的溫室氣體，相比之下，中國和印度產生的溫室氣體佔了18%。根據目前的情況，預計到2020年，單是中國就將產生24%的全球溫室氣體排放，印度7%，美國13%，歐盟國家8%。中國和印度的氣候變化行動如今至關重要。

But China and India fear that radical action on greenhouse gas emissions will significantly reduce economic growth in a time when poverty reduction remains a national priority. We in the West cannot simply wave this problem away as if it is not our concern as well.

不過，中國和印度擔心，在減貧仍然是國家首要任務的當下，溫室氣體排放方面的激進行動將使經濟增速大大放緩。我們西方國家不能對這個問題撒手不管，因爲這也是我們的擔憂。

Still, India and China will face even greater problems if carbon emissions continue to increase.

而且，如果碳排放繼續增長的話，印度和中國將面臨更加嚴峻的問題。

India will be one of the states hardest hit by climate change, with increased coastal flooding and melting Himalayan glaciers. Rising global temperatures would make water security an even greater problem in India-Pakistan relations. William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has estimated that a modest increase in average global temperatures would cut agricultural output in India by 38 percent.

隨着沿海地區洪災的增多，以及喜馬拉雅冰川不斷融化，印度將成爲受氣候變化影響最嚴重的國家之一。不斷上升的全球氣溫將使水安全成爲印巴關係中更加嚴峻的問題。華盛頓彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級研究員威廉·克萊恩(William R. Cline) 估計，全球平均氣溫的小幅上升會使印度的農業產出下降38%。

The stakes are as great for China. Earlier this year, the head of China’s national weather service warned that climate change would have “huge impacts” on the country, including reduced crop yields, ecological harm and unstable river flows. A 2011 government report anticipated a 5-to-20 percent drop in grain output resulting from climate change by 2050. Never mind the crisis the Chinese leadership already faces from unsustainable levels of air pollution in the country’s major cities.

中國同樣利益攸關。今年早些時候，中國國家氣象局負責人警告稱，氣候變化對國家“影響巨大”，會導致糧食產量下降，生態退化，以及河流徑流量不穩定。2011年的一份政府報告預計，到2050年，氣候變化導致的糧食減產將達到5%到20%。除此之外，中國領導層還面臨着大城市不可持續的空氣污染水平所帶來的危機。

While the United States’ total emissions are now considerably less than China’s, America’s per-capita emissions are three times that of China and 10 times India’s. If the United States wants to persuade China and India to shift to a low-carbon development path, it must make a determined effort to reduce the carbon intensity of its own economy by becoming more energy efficient and switching to low-carbon energy sources. Shale gas is one part of this equation.

儘管美國的總排放量目前遠遠低於中國，人均排放量卻是中國的3倍、印度的10倍。如果美國想要說服中國和印度改走低碳發展道路，就必須通過提高能效和轉而使用低碳能源，堅決降低自身經濟的碳排放強度。頁岩氣是這個方程式的一部分。

Success in Paris this December will require a three-part approach.

今年12月的巴黎大會要想取得成功，需要一個具有三個組成部分的對策。

First, the United States and China must rapidly increase collaboration on climate change both within and beyond the framework of the Paris conference. This means concerted action from environmental and energy regulators, and effective pricing for the heaviest polluters to purchase carbon permits and for what consumers pay for energy. The sort of large-scale investments needed in renewable energy, less carbon-intensive energy, energy efficiency and technological innovation will only happen if there are significant and sustained price and regulatory signals from government, coupled with innovations in the market. China’s air pollution crisis should be a core focus of bilateral policy, regulatory and technological effort — not least because it affects us all.

首先，美國和中國必須迅速擴大在氣候變化問題上的合作，在巴黎會議的框架內外都是如此。這意味着環境和能源監管機構的協同行動，以及針對最嚴重污染者購買碳排放許可、消費者購買能源的有效定價機制。只有政府釋放重要、持續的價格和監管信號，加上市場的創新，可再生能源、碳排放量較低的能源、能效和技術創新所需的大規模投資纔會出現。中國的空氣污染危機應該是雙邊政策、監管和技術行動的核心焦點——其中的一個重要原因是，它與我們每一個人都有關。

Second, effective trilateral collaboration between the United States, China and India is critical. Although India has been a smaller emitter in relative terms until now, India will pass China’s population in the next decade, and it has barely begun its own industrial revolution. Delhi already has air pollution levels comparable to Beijing. The same type of climate change collaboration on regulation, pricing, technology and investment is needed in this triangular relationship. In this context, we cannot ignore the fact that coal, absent a quantum technological shift, is likely to remain the major fuel for energy generation in China and India through to mid-century. Investment must continue to focus on clean-coal technologies and shale-gas conversion.

第二，美國、中國和印度的有效三方合作至關重要。儘管印度迄今爲止的碳排放量一直相對較少，印度人口將在未來10年超過中國，而且它基本上還沒有開始自己的工業革命。德里的空氣污染水平已經與北京不相上下。這個三角關係必須在監管、定價、技術和投資等領域開展同樣類型的氣候變化合作。在此背景下，我們不能忽視的一個事實是，如果沒有巨大的技術變革，煤炭直到本世紀中葉都將會是中國和印度能源生產的主要燃料。投資的重點必須繼續放在清潔煤炭技術和頁岩氣轉換上。

Third, any climate change agreement in Paris must ensure that countries actually implement the emissions cuts they commit to. The final accord must agree to a regular review mechanism, full transparency of data and an ability to supplement the Paris agreement with further climate-change action as necessary. Much of the world seems oblivious to international treaty law, but it does respond to concrete environmental action based on that law.

第三，在巴黎達成的任何氣候變化協議，都必須確保各國兌現其減排承諾。最終的協議必須包括經常性的審覈機制、充分的數據透明度，以及通過更多必要的氣候變化行動爲巴黎協議提供補充的能力。世界上的很多國家似乎忘記了國際公約法的存在，但他們一定會響應基於這部法律的具體的環境行動。

Forging an agreement in Paris will take bold leadership. The people of the world, particularly the young, now look increasingly to the leaders of these great powers to protect our planet before it’s too late for us all.

在巴黎達成協議將需要相關方面大膽地運用自己的領導力。全世界的人們現在越來越指望大國領導人保護我們的地球，年輕人尤其如此，以免我們所有人都追悔莫及。