分析: 稀土大戰爲何未打響

This week, a trade war that was supposed to tear the world of high-tech manufacturing apart ended peacefully, quietly and with few casualties.

本週，本以爲將撕裂高科技製造業的一場貿易戰以和平方式靜悄悄地結束，幾乎沒有造成任何傷亡。

China announced plans that would comply with a World Trade Organisation decision from last year by removing export quotas and other restrictions on rare earth elements, the minerals used widely in the manufacture of electronics, computers and cars. It was another success for the US, which has not only chalked up impressive wins against China in the WTO’s dispute settlement process but also (by no means a given) often succeeded in getting Beijing to implement the decisions.

中國宣佈相關計劃，將遵守世貿組織(WTO)去年做出的一項裁定，取消對稀土的出口配額以及其他限制。稀土被廣泛地應用於電子產品、計算機和汽車的製造中。這是美國取得的又一場勝利。美國不但根據世貿組織的爭議解決機制起訴中國，多次取得令人印象深刻的勝訴，而且（這絕非必然）經常成功地確保中方執行裁定。

So, a big victory for global governance? Sort of. In reality, it was the free market as much as trade rules that did for China’s attempt to corner global commerce in rare earths. Moreover, in a rather choice irony, Chinese companies employed the very tricks that they use to sidestep trade restrictions by other governments to sabotage the export quotas set by their own.

那麼，這是全球治理的一場重大勝利嗎？或多或少可以這麼說。在現實中，自由市場和貿易規則在挫敗中國主宰全球稀土交易的企圖方面起到了同等重要的作用。另外，具有相當大諷刺意味的是，中國企業使用了一些手段破壞本國政府設定的出口配額，而這些手段本來是它們用來繞過其他國家政府推出的貿易限制的。

By 2010, China produced 97 per cent of the world’s basic rare earth oxide production and much of the processing business. In its submission to the WTO, Beijing laughably argued that a complex system of export restrictions it had placed on its rare earth companies since the mid-2000s was aimed at protecting the environment by controlling mining. In reality, as the WTO dispute panel swiftly twigged, it was an attempt to give its domestic electronics and other manufacturing industries a competitive advantage by ensuring a cheap captive supply of raw materials.

截至2010年，中國的基礎稀土氧化物產量佔到世界產量的97%，其稀土加工量佔世界總量的比重也很高。在呈遞給世貿組織的文件中，中國政府可笑地聲稱，其自2005年左右以來對本國稀土企業實施的一套複雜的出口限制制度，是爲了通過控制採礦來保護環境。實際上，正如世貿組織爭議解決委員會很快認定的那樣，中國的做法無非是爲了保證國內的電子等製造產業獲得廉價、壟斷的原材料供應，從而賦予其競爭優勢。

This is a familiar pattern among commodity-producing emerging markets trying to develop their own manufacturing industry. When first Ukraine and then Russia joined the WTO in 2008 and 2012 respectively, for example, the EU insisted they make binding pledges not to restrict raw material exports, particularly metals.

在努力發展本國製造業的生產大宗商品的新興市場經濟體中，這一做法很常見。比如，當烏克蘭和俄羅斯先後於2008年和2012年加入世貿組織時，歐盟(EU)堅持要求這兩國做出具有約束性的承諾，不能限制原材料、尤其是金屬的出口。

China’s policy seemed to have some success. The rocketing price of the minerals in the late 2000s disadvantaged users across the world. As Eugene Gholz at the University of Texas says, some Japanese manufacturers that use rare earths as an input did relocate to China to take advantage of cheap and reliable supply. And just to provide the non-specialist media with a nice story, in 2010 China reportedly used the threat of more export restrictions to force Japan into returning a Chinese fishing-boat captain it had arrested sailing worryingly close to disputed islands in the South China Sea.

中國的政策似乎取得了一定的成功。在本世紀最初10年後期，稀土價格的直線上升使全世界的用戶陷於不利地位。正如德克薩斯大學(University of Texas)經濟學家尤金•霍爾茨(Eugene Gholz)所說，一些使用稀土作爲原料的日本生產商確實搬遷到了中國，以利用廉價、可靠的供應。2010年，據稱中國以出臺更多出口限制相威脅，迫使日本政府交還了其逮捕的一名航行至非常接近東中國海爭議島嶼的中國漁船船長。這爲非專業的媒體提供了極佳的報道題材。

Accordingly, the state-capitalism-here-we-come crowd concluded that the Chinese were, once again, proving themselves strategic geniuses.

於是，那些支持“國家資本主義，我們來了”的人得出結論稱，中國人再次證明了自己的戰略天賦。

But, to adapt a saying in the oil markets, the best cure for high rare earth prices is high rare earth prices. Production in Australia, Japan and Malaysia was expanded; other sources of rare earths were exploited; manufacturers rapidly found ways to economise or substitute, as it were, a less rare rare earth for a rarer one. Happily, the US government, rather than resort to retaliatory trade restrictions of its own, found a way to help this process along by funding research into diversification. The global price of the minerals fell and economic Armageddon was avoided.

但是，套用石油市場的一個說法，治癒稀土高價的最佳藥方就是稀土高價本身。澳大利亞、日本和馬來西亞擴大了稀土生產能力；其他一些稀土來源得到了利用；生產商很快找到了節約或替代稀土的辦法，也就是以不那麼稀有的稀土代替更爲稀有的稀土。幸運的是，美國政府沒有采取報復性貿易限制，而是通過資助多樣化研究，設法幫助降低了稀土的稀有程度。全球稀土價格開始下降，世界經濟末日由此得以避免。