克里米亞斬不斷對烏克蘭的依賴

Crimeans voted on Sunday to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, but the bonds of a Soviet-era infrastructure will be harder to break.

克里米亞週日投票同意脫離烏克蘭、加入俄羅斯，但該地區在基礎設施方面與烏克蘭的聯繫卻很難切斷。

The dry, windswept peninsula has few of the resources to support the fabled resorts and ports for which it is valued. With no land bridge to Russia, it relies on Ukraine for about 25% of its gas, 70% of its water, and 90% of its electricity, all of which it imports over a small strip of land that connects it to the mainland.

乾燥、大風肆虐的克里米亞半島資源稀少，無法提供該地區作爲度假勝地和港口所必需的資源。克里米亞與俄羅斯沒有陸地相連，該地區25%的天然氣、70%的水和90%的電力供應都依賴烏克蘭，所有這些資源都是通過一條與烏克蘭大陸相連的地峽進入克里米亞的。

It is a dependence that could prove explosive, as was shown by Russia's seizure of a gas-distribution plant on mainland Ukraine over the weekend, suggesting that Moscow could try to grab other infrastructure to secure supplies into Crimea.

克里米亞對烏克蘭的這種依賴可能是一觸即發的，上週末俄羅斯佔領了烏克蘭大陸的一處天然氣配送站也證明了這一點。俄羅斯還可能會嘗試佔領其他的基礎設施，以確保克里米亞地區的資源供應。

A Crimean government spokesman said the move was necessary because of a shut-off at the station that left parts of eastern Crimea without heat or electricity. The Ukrainian government denied that there had been a shut-off.

克里米亞政府一位發言人表示，俄羅斯此舉是有必要的，因爲如果該天然氣配送站的供應被切斷，那麼克里米亞東部的部分地區將不得不停暖或停電。烏克蘭政府否認切斷了對克里米亞的供應。

The loss of Crimea is a political body blow to the new government from Kiev, but it also relieves Ukraine of an annual $1 billion budgetary drain. If Moscow follows through with its annexation of Crimea, the peninsula's lingering dependence on Ukraine for sustenance could ironically give Ukraine some leverage in dealing with Moscow.

失去克里米亞對烏克蘭新政府而言是一次政治上的打擊，但這也讓烏克蘭從此擺脫了每年10億美元的預算支出。具有諷刺意味的是，如果俄羅斯堅持合併克里米亞，克里米亞對於烏克蘭的依賴反而會讓烏克蘭政府獲得一些應對俄羅斯的籌碼。

Kiev can theoretically cut the utilities' supply to the breakaway region, although when it comes to electricity it may be disruptive to the national electricity grid system.

理論上，烏克蘭可以切斷克里米亞的資源供應，但就電力而言，如果切斷電力供應可能會給烏克蘭全國電網系統造成破壞。

'Ukraine may limit gas, electricity, water supplies to Crimea, close the border to the delivery of goods and cut off budget money supply,' said Oleh Ustenko, director of the Center for World Economics and International Relations at the Ukrainian Academy of Science.

烏克蘭科學院(Ukrainian Academy of Science)世界經濟與國際關係中心(Center for World Economics and International Relations)主任Oleh Ustenko表示，烏克蘭可以限制對克里米亞的天然氣、電力和水供應，封鎖邊境不讓商品進入克里米亞，並解除財政供養關係。

Crimean officials have put on a brave face, saying the peninsula may survive without supplies from the mainland, and without support of the budget. Analysts say Ukraine is highly unlikely to order a cutoff of utilities to Crimea because of the havoc it would create on the peninsula.

克里米亞官員擺出了一副很有信心的面孔，稱在沒有烏克蘭資源以及預算支持的情況下，克里米亞依然能夠生存下去。分析師說，烏克蘭下令切斷對克里米亞水電氣供應的可能性極小，因爲如此一來就將在克里米亞造成一場浩劫。

But the supply lines into Crimea are fragile and easily threatened if fighting were to break out between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Crimea covers about 10% of its electricity needs through small generation plants, and the rest is brought in through two sets of power lines from mainland Ukraine.

但是這條“補給線”相當脆弱，如果俄烏之間爆發戰爭，輕易就能被破壞。克里米亞電力需求中僅10%左右由當地小發電廠解決，其餘全部靠從烏克蘭內陸鋪設過來的兩組輸電線供應。

Its water is brought in through the North Crimean Canal, built in the Soviet era and finished in 1971. Crimea has enough water to supply households, but it relies on the mainland for water to irrigate fields and to use in factories.

克里米亞的生活用水來自前蘇聯時代修建、1971年完工的北克里米亞運河(North Crimean Canal)，但灌溉和工業用水還是依靠烏克蘭內陸供應。

The peninsula satisfies about three quarters of its natural-gas demands from its own sources, thanks to booming offshore production.

克里米亞半島約四分之三的天然氣需求靠自己解決，這要得益於興盛的海上油氣開採活動。

The uncertainties over supplies into Crimea as well as political instability will scare off tourists, 70% of whom were from Ukraine last year. Crimean infrastructure and hotels have languished from a lack of investment.

水電氣等民生物資供應的不確定性以及政局的不穩定將嚇跑遊客，去年赴克里米亞旅遊的遊客有70%來自烏克蘭。由於缺少投資，克里米亞當地許多基礎設施和酒店正在老化衰敗。

'Now Crimea has rolled back by years, when it comes to investment,' said Mr. Ustenko.

Ustenko說，在投資方面，克里米亞已經倒退回了許多年前的水平。

Even before the crisis, Mr. Ustenko said that many investors steered clear of Crimea because of infrastructure problems and high levels of criminal and 'shadow economy' activity. Now, it will now be out of the question for international, Ukrainian or Russian private investors to put new money into the region, he said.

Ustenko說，哪怕是在危機爆發前，許多投資者就已經避開克里米亞，因爲當地的基礎設施問題、高犯罪率以及“影子經濟”活動。他說，現在，國際、烏克蘭和俄羅斯的私人投資者根本不可能往克里米亞投入新資金。

The Russian government will by default now have to be the main source of investment for Crimea. A senior official in the Russian government said Moscow realizes the costs, which may amount to $4 billion in the first year alone.

俄羅斯政府無疑將成爲克里米亞的主要投資者。一位俄政府高級官員說，莫斯科知道由此要付出的代價，僅第一年就可能需要向克里米亞投入40億美元資金。

The move to annex Crimea is popular within Russia, however. 'It is a once in lifetime opportunity, and no one will quarrel about the price tag,' the person said.

但是把克里米亞納入俄聯邦的舉措很受俄羅斯人的歡迎。這位官員說，這是千載難逢的機會，沒人會在意“出價”。