特朗普繁榮究竟能夠多持久
Forecasters not only said Donald Trump would lose last month.
預測人士不僅曾預言唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)會輸掉大選。
They also thought markets would collapse if he won.
他們還曾以爲，如果特朗普獲勝，市場會崩潰。
Quite the opposite has happened.
事實卻正好相反。
Investors expect all the good things Mr Trump promised and none of the bad.
投資者認爲特朗普承諾的好事全都會發生，而壞事全都不會。
Instead of global trade wars and mass deportation of immigrants, the equity markets foresee tax cuts, deregulation and big spending.
股市預想的情景裏面包括減稅、去監管和大規模政府支出，而不包括全球貿易戰和大舉驅逐移民。
Almost every index has hit recent highs since November 8, adding more than $1tn to US equity valuations and almost five per cent to the dollar’s trade-weighted value.
自11月8日以來，幾乎所有股指都已達到近期高點，爲美國股市增加了逾1萬億美元市值，令美元貿易加權指數上漲近5%。
Global markets are gearing up for a Trump boom.
全球市場正整裝待發，準備迎接一輪特朗普繁榮。
In that respect Mr Trump is already heir to Ronald Reagan.
從這方面來說，特朗普已經是羅納德.里根(Ronald Reagan)的繼承人了。
But the seeds to the reversal of the Trump trade are already sown.
不過，特朗普行情發生逆轉的種子已經種下。
The biggest threat will come from the US Federal Reserve.
對該行情的最大威脅將來自美聯儲(Fed)。
On Wednesday, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, will almost certainly raise US interest rates for only the second time in a decade.
美聯儲主席珍妮特.耶倫(Janet Yellen)週三幾乎肯定會提高美國的利率，這在十年內也僅僅是第二次加息。
Before Mr Trump’s victory, the Fed signalled it was likely only to increase rates three or four times before 2019.
在特朗普勝選前，美聯儲曾釋放信號稱，在2019年以前該行可能只會加息三到四次。
That was because it anticipated continued fiscal retrenchment.
那是因爲該行預計財政緊縮會持續下去。
Mr Trump’s victory has blown that up.
然而特朗普的勝選卻打破了這一預期。
A unified Republican government is poised to bring about the fiscal stimulus that it has been blocking Democrats from carrying out for years.
團結一致的共和黨政府已準備好推出財政刺激舉措——這正是多年來他們一直阻撓民主黨人實施的。
The effect on the US economy will be reflationary.
這會對美國經濟產生通貨再膨脹效應。
Even if you halved Mr Trump’s plans for $5.7tn in tax cuts and $1tn in infrastructure spending, his fiscal stimulus would still be huge.
就算把特朗普的5.7萬億美元減稅計劃和1萬億美元基建開支計劃打個對摺，他的財政刺激舉措仍然規模龐大。
Since US unemployment is already well below five per cent, Ms Yellen will have little choice but to accelerate the Fed’s planned interest rate increases.
鑑於美國失業率已經大大低於5%，耶倫除了加快美聯儲原計劃的加息步伐以外將別無選擇。
There are upsides to this.
這種局面存在有利之處。
US monetary policy would return to normal far quicker than expected, which would give the Fed greater firepower to counteract the next recession.
美國貨幣政策迴歸正常的速度會遠快於預期，這會爲美聯儲應對下一輪衰退提供更多彈藥。
Goodbye to the new normal of zero lower bound rates.
拜拜，零利率下限的新常態。
Hello to the old one where central bankers wrestle with the economy’s animal spirits.
你好，央行人士用於對付美國經濟動物精神的舊常態。
But there are also two glaring downsides.
不過，這種局面中還存在兩個引人注目的不利之處。
The first is that it will set up a clash between the Fed and Mr Trump.
第一個不利之處，是它會讓美聯儲和特朗普之間發生衝突。
No president likes the central bankers who take away the punch bowl just as the party is hotting up.
沒有哪位總統喜歡央行人士在聚會剛剛熱鬧起來時就收走賓治酒。
Ms Yellen’s term comes to an end in early 2018 — barely a year away.
耶倫的任期將於2018年初結束——只剩一年多一點了。
Mr Trump’s campaign promise to fire Ms Yellen is one of the bad things markets assume he has now discarded.
特朗普選舉時提出的解僱耶倫的承諾，是市場假定他如今已放棄的壞事之一。
At any rate, a US president does not have the power to sack a Fed chief.
無論如何，美國總統根本也無權解僱美聯儲主席。
But Mr Trump could make life impossible for Ms Yellen.
不過，特朗普可以讓耶倫的日子變得非常不好過。
Who he nominates to fill the two vacancies on the Fed’s board will give a clearer idea of which direction he wants the Fed to go.
特朗普任命誰來填補美聯儲理事會的兩個空缺，將更明確地顯示出他希望美聯儲往哪個方向走。
One of them may be Ms Yellen’s designated successor.
他們中的一個人也許會是耶倫的指定繼任者。
How Mr Trump responds to the Fed’s interest rate increases, via Twitter or elsewhere, will be key.
特朗普在Twitter或其他場合對美聯儲加息舉動的表態將非常關鍵。
It is one thing to tweet disapproval of the Fed on the campaign trail but quite another when you are sitting in the Oval Office.
競選時發佈Twitter消息批評美聯儲是一回事，就任總統後這樣做則完全是另一回事。
Little weight should be attached to Mr Trump’s pledge to appoint someone more hawkish to replace Ms Yellen.
至於特朗普任命更鷹派的人物替換耶倫的承諾，不要太放在心上。
Republicans have a history of decrying loose monetary policy when in opposition but embracing it when in power.
在野時譴責寬鬆貨幣政策、執政時卻奉行這一政策，這是共和黨人一貫的傳統。
The same applies to fiscal deficits.
同樣的規律也適用於財政赤字問題。
Dick Cheney, the former vice-president, captured this when he said Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.
美國前副總統迪克.切尼(Dick Cheney)曾說：里根證明了赤字無關緊要。這句話點中了要害。
As a highly leveraged property developer, Mr Trump has often described himself as a low interest rate guy.
身爲高度依賴槓桿的房地產開發商，特朗普經常稱自己是喜歡低利率的那種人。
He will want to be a low interest president.
他將會想要成爲一位喜歡低利率的總統。
If Ms Yellen upset that, Mr Trump could always revive his support for the audit the Fed legislation on Capitol Hill.
如果耶倫攪局，特朗普隨時可以在國會山重新支持對美聯儲進行審計(audit the Fed)的法案。
The second big downside is the effect on the US dollar.
第二個重大不利之處是對美元的影響。
When you combine fiscal loosening with monetary tightening the currency will inevitably appreciate.
在寬財政的同時緊貨幣，美元會不可避免地升值。
That will further reduce the costs of imports and raise the price of exports.
這會進一步降低進口成本，提高出口價格。
The US trade deficit — including that with China, which alone stands at almost $400bn last year — will rise.
美國的貿易赤字將會上升——包括對華貿易赤字在內，去年美國僅對該國的貿易赤字就達到了近4000億美元的水平。
Mounting current account deficits are another feature of Reaganism.
不斷積累的經常項目赤字是里根主義的又一特色。
The big difference is that Mr Trump has vowed to reduce them.
有很大不同的地方在於，特朗普已發誓要降低貿易赤字。
Reversing globalism and repatriating US manufacturing was at the core of Mr Trump’s campaign.
逆轉全球化進程和讓美國的製造業迴流，是特朗普競選綱領的核心。
Can he afford to abandon that? How would that affect poll numbers?
他有沒有放棄這一核心主張的資本？這麼做會如何影響民意支持率？
This is where the bad Trump campaign vows come back into the picture.
正是考慮到這種情況，我們現在還不能認定特朗普競選承諾中壞的事情不會發生。
The US markets are wise to bet that Mr Trump will shelve his threats of global trade wars in the short term in favour of an expansive Reaganite boom.
美國市場把籌碼押在了特朗普會在短期內擱置有關全球貿易戰的威脅、選擇擴張性里根式繁榮上面，這是明智的。
His nomination of investment bankers to the key economic roles — mostly from Goldman Sachs — has reassured Wall Street.
他任命投行人士（大多來自高盛(Goldman Sachs)）擔任關鍵經濟職位，令華爾街放寬了心。
The first phase of Mr Trump’s presidency will be Government Sachs as normal.
特朗普總統任期的第一階段將是和往常一樣的高盛政府(Government Sachs)。
But that will change when things turn difficult.
不過，當事情變得困難時，情況會發生變化。
The temptation to undermine the Fed’s independence, make a scapegoat of China, revive talk of deporting immigrants and slap tariffs on Mexico will grow with the trade deficit.
隨着貿易赤字的增長，削弱美聯儲獨立性、把中國當替罪羊、重提驅逐移民以及對墨西哥徵收關稅的誘惑也會加大。
At which point the markets will recall what it was they originally feared about Mr Trump.
屆時，市場會想起來，自己最初對特朗普的擔憂是什麼。
But that is still some way off.
不過，距離出現這種局面還有一段路程。
For the past 18 months Mr Trump has led an anti-elitist presidential campaign without peer.
過去18個月裏，特朗普領導了一場無可匹敵的反精英主義總統競選。
Over the next few months, America’s elites can expect to receive their largest tax cut and asset-price boosting windfall in years.
今後幾個月，美國精英可以預計的是，他們會迎來數年來最大幅度的減稅和天降資產價格暴漲。
Little wonder the markets are so giddy.
難怪市場如此興奮。
