恐襲對旅遊業有多大沖擊 Terror attacks on tourism hit poor countries the hardest

Killings at a Tunisian museum and on a beach. The downing of a Russian aircraft flying home from Sharm el-Sheikh. And, last month, lethal attacks in Paris on people from many countries attending a concert and a football match, and eating and drinking in bars and restaurants.

今年以來，突尼斯的一家博物館及一處海灘分別發生了恐怖殺戮。一架俄羅斯客機在從沙姆沙伊赫(Sharm el-Sheikh)飛往國內途中因炸彈破壞而墜毀。上月，在巴黎參加音樂會、觀看足球比賽、在酒吧和餐館享受美食佳釀的許多國家的平民遭到血腥襲擊。

It has been a dreadful year for the murder of tourists and of locals enjoying themselves.

就享受生活的遊客以及當地人遭到殺戮而言，這是令人恐怖的一年。

These attacks are not new. There have been murderous assaults before, such as the 1997 Luxor killings, the 2002 Bali nightclub bombing and the 2008 attacks on hotels, a railway station and a Jewish centre in Mumbai.

此類襲擊並非最近纔有。之前也發生過多起兇殘的襲擊，例如1997年的埃及盧克索屠殺、2002年巴厘島夜總會爆炸案以及2008年孟買酒店、火車站及猶太人中心遭到的血腥襲擊。

For the bereaved and the injured, the memories are permanent. But holidaymakers forget and tourist numbers often pick up again.

對遇難者親屬與傷者而言，這種痛苦的記憶會永遠伴隨他們。但度假者不久就會遺忘，遊客數量往往會再度回升。

How long that takes depends on visitors’ perceptions of how in control the local authorities are, how likely another attack is and how much general instability there is.

實現回升需要多久？這取決於遊客的觀感（當地政府控制局勢的程度、新的襲擊發生的可能性以及該國總體不穩定程度）。

After the 2005 London Underground bombings, foreign visitor numbers to the UK barely budged; they rose in 2006. The 2004 bombings of Madrid trains did not affect tourist inflows.

2005年倫敦地鐵爆炸案發生後，到訪英國的外國遊客數量幾乎沒有變化；2006年還出現了上升。2004年的馬德里火車站爆炸案也未對遊客流入量造成影響。

By contrast, after initial hesitation, Russia suspended flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. Airlines such as British Airways and easyJet have stopped flights there until January, meaning the Egyptian resort will continue to suffer over the European holiday period.

相比之下，經過最初的猶豫之後，俄羅斯暫停了飛往沙姆沙伊赫的航班。英國航空(British Airways)、EasyJet等航空公司也決定在明年1月之前停飛沙姆沙伊赫航班，這意味着這個埃及度假勝地將在歐洲人假日期間繼續遭受損失。

This is a serious blow to Egypt, whose tourism has declined since the Arab uprisings that started in 2010. Sharm el-Sheikh until now had been a rare exception. The Tunisia Live website last week quoted officials saying that country’s tourist industry remained in crisis too.

自2010年“阿拉伯之春”爆發以來，埃及的旅遊業已經出現下滑，此次事件對埃及來說又是一次沉重打擊。此前沙姆沙伊赫對埃及旅遊業來說一直是難得的例外。“突尼斯生活”(Tunisia Live)網站上週援引官員的話稱，該國旅遊業同樣仍處於危機中。

There are differences between the various attacks. The London and Madrid bombings (and November’s Paris attacks) were aimed at the general population. The Sharm el-Sheikh and Tunisian assaults specifically targeted tourists.

各地發生的這些襲擊之間也有區別。倫敦、馬德里的爆炸案（以及11月的巴黎恐怖襲擊）針對的是普通民衆。而俄羅斯客機墜毀以及突尼斯發生的襲擊都是專門針對遊客的。

But the contrasting post-attack experiences prompt the question: do rich countries’ holiday industries find it easier to bounce back after terrorist killings than poorer ones?

但襲擊發生後的鮮明對比帶來一個問題：在恐怖殺戮發生後，富裕國家的度假產業比窮國同行更容易復甦嗎？

The data seem to bear that out, says Yeganeh Morakabati, a Bournemouth university associate professor who has studied the relationship between tourism and terrorism. There is one exception, she says: the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.

伯恩茅斯大學(Bournemouth university)研究旅遊業與恐怖主義之間關聯的副教授耶加內(Yeganeh Morakabati)表示，數據似乎證實這一點。她說，有一個例外：2001年美國發生的9/11恐怖襲擊。

A working paper from the Department of Homeland Security says that, after 9/11, the fall in international visitors to the US was “immediate and precipitous”. It was not until 2007 that foreign tourist arrivals returned to near their pre-9/11 levels. There were other factors that damaged the US tourist industry, the paper says. In 2001 and 2002, the world economy went into a downturn and air travel dropped. The US also introduced a stricter visa policy which may have put visitors off.

美國國土安全部(Department of Homeland Security)的一份工作報告稱，9/11事件後，到訪美國的外國遊客數量出現了“立即、急劇”下降。直至2007年，外國遊客數量纔回升至接近9/11事件前的水平。該報告稱，還有其他因素使美國旅遊業受損。2001年和2002年，世界經濟陷入衰退，航空旅行的人數減少。美國還實行了有可能讓遊客卻步的更嚴格的簽證政策。

Ms Morakabati says that the spectacular nature of the 9/11 attacks may have contributed to the US being an exception to wealthy countries’ tourism being less affected.

Morakabati說，9/11恐怖襲擊的慘烈程度可能使美國成了富裕國家旅遊業較少受恐怖襲擊影響的一個例外。

Even then, the US found ways to compensate for the drop in foreign visitors — pointing to another difference between rich and poorer countries: wealthy ones have more domestic tourists. If foreign visitors stop coming, locals take their place. The US working paper says American visitors spurred Hawaii’s tourist industry to full recovery by 2003.

即便如此，美國找到了彌補外國遊客數量下降的各種方法，這也突顯了富裕國家與較貧窮國家之間的又一個不同：富裕國家擁有更多的國內遊客。如果外國遊客不來，當地人可以取而代之。該報告稱，在美國遊客的推動下，夏威夷的旅遊業到2003年就實現了全面復甦。

Poorer countries also suffer, after a terror attack, because they have less diversified economies, Ms Morakabati adds. It is harder for displaced hotel and bar workers to find jobs elsewhere. A drop in tourism badly affects related sectors such as agriculture as hotels and restaurants stop buying food.

Morakabati補充說，恐怖襲擊對較貧窮國家的危害更爲嚴重，因爲他們的經濟不夠多元化。失業的酒店、酒吧員工更難在別的行業找到工作。旅遊業下滑還會嚴重影響農業等相關行業，因爲酒店和餐廳不再採購食品。

Above all, poorer countries suffer from being seen as more dangerous. They can also suffer by association. Last month, a Moroccan hotelier told the Financial Times that she had struggled to fill her rooms since the Tunisian beach attack — even though the two countries do not share a border. What can poorer countries do to mitigate the damage to their tourist industries after a terrorist attack?

最重要的是，較貧窮國家還要承受被人們視爲更加危險而帶來的損失。他們還可能受到連帶影響。上月，一位摩洛哥酒店老闆對英國《金融時報》說，自突尼斯海灘襲擊案發生以來，她一直在爲酒店的入住率發愁——儘管摩洛哥與突尼斯根本不相鄰。較貧窮國家能做什麼來減少恐怖襲擊對本國旅遊行業造成的損害呢？

They can increase security and hope nothing similar happens for a long time. But countries with a history of civil disorder — or countries in a region of civil disorder — have a bigger battle to win back travellers’ confidence than wealthier, stable ones.

他們可以加強安保，期望很長時期內不發生類似的事情。但是，相比較富裕、穩定的國家，有過內亂歷史的國家——或處於戰亂地區的國家——需要做出更大努力才能贏回遊客信心。

Their tourist industries are particularly vulnerable. Tourism also represents openness and pleasure, which is why terrorists target it.

這些國家的旅遊業尤其脆弱。旅遊業還代表着開放與快樂，而這正是恐怖分子選擇旅遊業爲目標的原因。